Strait of Hormuz: Larak Strikes & Tanker War Risk

Strait Talk : Larak Attack!

Just when the outlook for the Strait of Hormuz appeared to be stabilising, tensions have escalated again.

Following US strikes on Iranian military installations on Larak Island on 30 August, Iran retaliated with further attacks across the region and intensified its targeting of shipping. Saudi vessels have been struck in both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, while the possibility of further military action against Iranian tankers is raising fears of a new tanker war.

Yet amid the escalation, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claims that 10mn b/d of crude is now exiting the Strait of Hormuz. That estimate is well above many previous assessments and could significantly change perceptions of the supply available to the global market.

In this episode of Strait Talk: Larak Attack!, Argus experts examine:

• Whether 10mn b/d of crude is really moving through the Strait of Hormuz
• How current flows compare with pre-war supply
• Why Iran has intensified its attacks on shipping
• The implications of Iran’s list of “non-compliant” vessels
• Whether the growing STS crude market in the Gulf of Oman is being targeted
• Iran’s strategy for laying mines and controlling shipping lanes
• Whether the region could be heading towards a new tanker war

With Dubai crude moving back towards $100/bl and volatility remaining elevated, the stakes for oil producers, traders and shipowners continue to rise.

Watch the latest episode for expert analysis of the military, shipping and market developments shaping Middle East crude flows.