Coal curve limits opportunities for Troll gas deferral
The coal curve's backwardation could make it more difficult for Statoil to optimise Troll production, although there could still be some incentive to turn down output in August-September.
TTF prompt prices have found support at levels that have brought gas into competition with coal in the generation mix this summer.
But the coal curve's backwardation — with prompt prices higher than forward prices — has lifted prompt fuel-switching prices, assuming a 55pc-efficient gas-fired plant and 40pc-efficient coal-fired unit — above the summer 2018 equivalent.
Unless TTF prompt prices drop below the fuel-switching price it could be difficult for them to open a substantial discount to forward contracts.
But a contango has been able to develop at the TTF, in part because the summer 2018 market has remained above fuel-switching prices.
Russian state-controlled Gazprom's record second-quarter sales to Europe, brisk UK exports through the Interconnector and strong Norwegian production so far this summer have weighed on TTF prompt prices. The TTF day-ahead market has moved deeper into fuel-switching territory in the past two months, sliding to levels that would bring 54pc-efficient gas-fired plants into competition with 41pc-efficient coal-fired units.
The TTF curve has moved into contango despite below-average stocks in northwest Europe.
NBP and TTF August and September prices below the summer 2018 markets could encourage Statoil to turn down production from its Troll swing field and possibly defer output into the coming years. But far wider discounts could have opened up had the coal curve not been in backwardation.
The Norwegian firm would need to reduce output over the next two months just to hit the field's 33bn m³ cap for the 2017-18 gas year. This could mean that even a sharp drop in Troll offtake in August-September from this month's quick output may not result in gas being pushed back into the 2018 summer.
Statoil has previously said that it is easier for its trading business to profit with commodity curves in contango.
The marketing, processing and renewable energy segments "are typically more able to make profit in a contango market than in a backwardated market on the oil side," Statoil's Torgrim Reitan, who was then chief financial officer, said on 25 July 2013.
"On the gas side you will typically also be subject to the structures in the market as such," Reitan said. He has since become Statoil's vice-president for US development and production.
Statoil's trading department can profit from prompt and near-curve prices opening a wide discount to forward contracts. The firm could buy back some of the Troll production it has already sold for the remainder of the third quarter and sell it into the 2018 summer. This would enable the firm to profit from unwinding its hedges without actually producing some of the Troll gas it had planned to take this summer, providing the spreads are wide enough to cover the cost of the deferrals.
Statoil reduced Troll production in June-September 2016, saying that it had sold it into future periods.
The June 2016 contract was as much as 5p/th below the summer 2017 market in early May last year, although the spread tightened towards the end of the month.
In contrast, Statoil's trading revenues had come under pressure in 2013. The TTF curve had been in backwardation at the time, with the August 2013 contract closing €0.50/MWh above the summer 2014 market on 25 July 2013.
Low stocks following the cold 2012-13 winter combined with the crude curve's backwardation had lifted the TTF curve from the front during the 2013 summer.
But coal prices have increasingly replaced oil as the main driver of European gas markets since 2013 with the spread of hub-indexation.
Related news posts
US economic growth slows to 1.6pc in 1Q
US economic growth slows to 1.6pc in 1Q
Houston, 25 April (Argus) — The US economy in the first quarter grew at a 1.6pc annual pace, slower than expected, while a key measure of inflation accelerated. Growth in gross domestic product (GDP) slowed from a 3.4pc annual rate in the fourth quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported on Thursday. The first-quarter growth number, the first of three estimates for the period, compares with analyst forecasts of about a 2.5pc gain. Personal consumption slowed to a 2.5pc annual rate in the first quarter from a 3.3pc pace in the fourth quarter, partly reflecting lower spending on motor vehicles and gasoline and other energy goods. Gross private domestic investment rose by 3.2pc, with residential spending up 13.9pc after a 2.8pc expansion in the fourth quarter. Government spending growth slowed to 1.2pc from 4.6pc. Private inventories fell and imports rose, weighing on growth. The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, which the Federal Reserve closely follows, rose by 3.7pc following 2pc annual growth in the fourth quarter, although consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics said revisions to the data should pull the index lower in coming months. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to begin cutting its target lending rate in September following sharp increases in 2022 and early 2023 to fight inflation that surged to a high of 9.1pc in June 2022. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
India’s Gail to shut Dabhol LNG terminal for monsoon
India’s Gail to shut Dabhol LNG terminal for monsoon
Mumbai, 25 April (Argus) — Indian state-controlled gas distributor Gail is planning to shut its 5mn t/yr Dabhol LNG terminal on the west coast from 15 May, ahead of monsoon rains. Gail will also stop importing LNG from mid-May at the terminal, a company official told Argus . This is because of the lack of a breakwater facility at the terminal, which prevents it from anchoring ships in turbulent seas. The breakwater facility was expected to be completed in January, but the cause of the delay is unknown. The terminal is likely to resume operations from the end of September, similar to its plans in 2023 , as this shutdown over the monsoon season is routine. Gail is set to receive a total of 139,635t LNG at the Dabhol terminal in May, which will arrive in two separate shipments from the US' 5.75mn t/yr Cove Point export facility. Both cargoes will be the last that the terminal will receive before it shuts in mid-May. It has received 583,326t of LNG at the terminal since the beginning of the year, lower by 4pc on the year, data from market analytics firm Kpler show. The Dabhol terminal only receives about 2.9mn t/yr of LNG, despite having a nameplate capacity of 5mn t/yr, because it is not used during the monsoon season. Gail intends to gradually increase the capacity of the Dabhol terminal to 12mn t/yr by April 2030–March 2031. By Rituparna Ghosh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
EU adopts sustainability due diligence rules
EU adopts sustainability due diligence rules
Brussels, 24 April (Argus) — The European parliament has formally approved a Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD), which will require large EU companies to make "best efforts" for climate change mitigation. The law will mean that relevant companies will have to adopt a transition plan to make their business model compatible with the 1.5°C temperature limit set by the Paris climate agreement. It will apply to EU firms with over 1,000 employees and turnover above €450mn ($481mn). It will also apply to some companies with franchising or licensing agreements in the EU. The directive requires transposition into different EU national laws. It obliges member states to ensure relevant firms adopt and put into effect a transition plan for climate change mitigation. Transition plans must aim to "ensure, through best efforts" that business models and company strategies are compatible with transition to a sustainable economy, limiting global warming to 1.5°C and achieving climate neutrality by 2050. Where "relevant", the plans should limit "exposure of the company to coal-, oil- and gas-related activities". Despite a provisional agreement, EU states initially failed to formally approve the provisional agreement reached with parliament in December, after some member states blocked the deal. Parliament's adoption — at its last session before breaking for EU elections — paves the way for entry into force later in the year. Industry has obtained clarification, in the non-legal introduction, that the directive's requirements are an "obligation of means and not of results" with "due account" being given to progress that firms make as well as the "complexity and evolving" nature of climate transitioning. Still, firms' climate transition plans need to contain "time-bound" targets for 2030 and in five-year intervals until 2050 based on "conclusive scientific" evidence and, where appropriate, absolute reduction targets for greenhouse gas (GHG) for direct scope 1 emissions as well as scope 2 and scope 3 emissions. Scope 1 refers to emissions directly stemming from an organisation's activity, while scope 2 refers to indirect emissions from purchased energy. Scope 3 refers to end-use emissions. "It is alarming to see how member states weakened the law in the final negotiations. And the law lacks an effective mechanism to force companies to reduce their climate emissions," said Paul de Clerck, campaigner at non-governmental organisation Friends of the Earth Europe, pointing to "gaping" loopholes in the adopted text. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Libya eyes progress on Eni-led oil and gas project
Libya eyes progress on Eni-led oil and gas project
London, 24 April (Argus) — Libya intends to move ahead with a $4bn-5bn oil and gas project proposed by Eni, months after putting the project on hold because of widespread opposition. The country's Supreme Council for Energy last month essentially cleared the way for block NC-07 to be awarded to a consortium of Italy's Eni, France's TotalEnergies, Abu Dhabi's Adnoc and Turkey's state-owned Turkish Energy after a technical review found Libyan institutions lacked the financial means to develop the project alone, according to leaked minutes of the meeting seen by Argus . More recently, Turkey's energy minister Alparslan Bayraktar said on 19 April that an agreement on NC-07 was close. "We are about to sign," he said. On 16 April, Libya's acting oil minister Khalifa Rajab Abdulsadek signalled the project was still on the cards. Eni did not comment. State-owned NOC could not be reached. Tripoli-based prime minister Abdelhamid Dbeibeh and NOC had been on the cusp of awarding NC-07 to the Eni-led consortium in January before widespread opposition forced Dbeibeh to order a review addressing concerns . Plans envisage at least 200mn ft³/d of gas and an unspecified amount of oil. The moves reflect a growing impetus by Libya's oil leadership to drive forward long-delayed projects as it seeks to boost oil production capacity from 1.2mn-1.3mn b/d to 2mn b/d and double gas output to around 3.5bn ft³/d over the next three to five years. Libya is also set to begin negotiations with TotalEnergies and ConocoPhillips in Paris next month over their demand for better terms at Waha Oil Company in return for investing in expanding production capacity, an oil industry source told Argus . This is also likely to prove controversial as many in the industry and beyond are opposed to altering contractual terms. The apparent fresh push comes just weeks after the ousting of oil minister Mohamed Oun , who had opposed awarding NC-07 to the consortium and rejected several other oil and gas deals pursued by the Tripoli-based government and NOC. Opponents of the deal have said that the consortium was set to receive a share of production that is too high and that current operator state-owned Agoco could develop the field for a fraction of the cost. The oil ministry under Oun had also suggested that NC-07 could have been put to a public tender rather than be the subject of direct negotiations. Proponents of the NC-07 deal said Libya must rapidly move ahead with projects to ensure domestic demand is met and the country can continue to export gas. The Supreme Council for Energy said Libya will face a severe gas shortage by 2026 on its current trajectory and become a gas importer unless development projects are implemented. While Libya's political divisions persist, its oil sector has enjoyed a greater level of stability over the past two years. Forced production shutdowns have been few and far between while interest from international oil companies has grown. But accusations of improper conduct in the oil industry have increased in tandem. One of the key challenges facing Libya's oil sector is project implementation. A landmark $8bn deal for Eni to develop offshore gas fields was signed in early 2023, but Argus understands that there has been little progress on implementation. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Business intelligence reports
Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.
Learn more