Trump to announce decision on Iran deal tomorrow
US president Donald Trump says he will announce his decision on the future of the Iran nuclear deal tomorrow, just as US allies in Europe made final pitches to save the deal.
At stake is a possible reinstatement of US sanctions penalizing foreign buyers of Iranian crude and products. Trump has vowed to pull the US out of the agreement unless European powers can convince Tehran to revise it by 12 May.
"I will be announcing my decision on the Iran Deal tomorrow from the White House at 2:00pm" ET, Trump wrote on Twitter today.
UK foreign minister Boris Johnson visited Washington today to urge the US to remain part of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) — the agreement that in January 2016 lifted restrictions on Iran's crude exports in exchange for concessions on its nuclear program. The agreement is not perfect but it successfully has contained Iran's nuclear program, Johnson said.
The high stakes diplomacy that Trump's ultimatum has sparked is coming to an end. Washington wants to extend restrictions on Iran's nuclear program beyond the 10-year limit set in the JCPOA, impose restrictions on ballistic missiles and implement a stronger inspections regime.
French president Emmanuel Macron, backed by German chancellor Angela Merkel and UK prime minister Theresa May, urged the US to remain a part of the JCPOA while it joins its European partners and others in negotiating a new agreement with Iran to address long-term concerns.
Iran rejected Macron's compromise, calling it appeasement. "The response from some Europeans has been to offer the United States more concessions from our pocket," Iran's foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said. "Bluster or threats will not get the US a new deal, particularly as it is not honoring the (existing) deal."
Trump has routinely criticized the Iran nuclear deal as "the worst deal ever," but initially followed the advice from his civilian and military officials to leave it alone. But his administration has taken steps to reduce the benefits from the deal for Tehran, including warning foreign companies not to do business in Iran. Trump's new secretary of state Mike Pompeo and new White House national security adviser John Bolton are long time critics of the agreement.
Trump and other US officials last week cited information supplied by Israel on Iran's past nuclear program as justification of Washington's tough stance on Iran. But every other JCPOA signatory — France, Germany, the UK, China and Russia — said UN nuclear watchdog the IAEA should investigate the claims. Russian president Vladimir Putin, who says the JCPOA should be preserved in its current form, is meeting with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Moscow tomorrow.
The 12 May deadline that Trump said marks the expiry of a waiver on sanctions mandated under the National Defense Authorisation Act for Fiscal Year 2012. This law requires the US Treasury Department to impose sanctions on financial institutions in countries that do not significantly reduce their crude imports from Iran, with review of such purchases every 180 days. Iran's crude exports fell by 1mn b/d in response to the sanctions from 2012-15.
Implementing the law would negatively affect all consumers of Iranian crude, including US allies. But US proponents of scrapping the JCPOA downplay possible countermeasures from Europe and elsewhere.
Iran has boosted output to 3.8mn b/d since the JCPOA was implemented, down from 2.8mn b/d during four years of sanctions.
Iranian crude exports recovered to 2.1mn b/d in 2017 from 1.9mn b/d a year earlier. Around 65pc of its shipments went to customers in Asia-Pacific, including China, India, South Korea and Japan, and the remaining 35pc went to Europe, Argus estimates.
Related news posts
TotalEnergies to fully own Malaysian gas firm SapuraOMV
TotalEnergies to fully own Malaysian gas firm SapuraOMV
Singapore, 23 April (Argus) — TotalEnergies has signed an agreement to acquire Sapura Upstream Assets' 50pc stake in Malaysian private gas producer and operator SapuraOMV, which will take TotalEnergies' total stake to 100pc. The acquisition will cost $530mn, subject to closing adjustments, with closing expected to take place in the second half of this year, said TotalEnergies. This latest deal follows a previous agreement that TotalEnergies signed in January with Austrian firm OMV to acquire its 50pc interest in SapuraOMV. This means TotalEnergies will own 100pc of SapuraOMV once both transactions are completed. "Following the transaction with OMV announced two months ago and this new transaction with Sapura Upstream Assets, TotalEnergies will have full ownership of SapuraOMV and become a significant gas operator in Malaysia," said TotalEnergies' chairman and chief executive officer Patrick Pouyanné. "The SapuraOMV assets are fully in line with our strategy to grow our gas production to meet demand growth, focusing our portfolio on low-cost and low-emission assets," he added. SapuraOMV in 2023 produced 500mn ft³ of gas, which was used to feed the Bintulu LNG plant operated by state-controlled Petronas, as well as 7,000 b/d of condensates. SapuraOMV holds 40pc and 30pc operating interests, respectively, in blocks SK408 and SK310, which are offshore Sarawak, Malaysia. Block SK408's Jerun gas field, which could hold up to 84.9bn m³, is on track to start up in the second half of this year. SapuraOMV also has interests in exploration licences in Malaysia, Australia, New Zealand, and Mexico, where there was a discovery on block 30 last year, with estimated resources of 200mn-300mn bl of oil equivalent. TotalEnergies holds interests in two production sharing contracts in Malaysia. It in June last year signed an agreement with Petronas and Japanese trading firm Mitsui to jointly develop a carbon capture and storage project in Malaysia as well as assess maturing depleted fields and saline aquifers for storage. The firms hope to develop a CO2 merchant storage service to help industrial customers in Asia decarbonise. By Prethika Nair Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Australia’s Tamboran agrees NT gas sales deal
Australia’s Tamboran agrees NT gas sales deal
Sydney, 23 April (Argus) — Australian independent Tamboran Resources has signed a long-term gas sales agreement with the Northern Territory (NT) government for supplies from the Beetaloo joint venture's (BJV) proposed Shenandoah South pilot project. The binding deal for 40 TJ/d (1.07mn m³/d) on a take-or-pay basis from Shenandoah South in the onshore Beetaloo sub-basin of the NT equates to a total 131.4PJ (3.5bn m³) and begins in January-June 2026, running for nine years with an option to extend 6½ further years to 2042, Tamboran said on 23 April. This represent about two-thirds of the NT's present gas requirements and is conditional on the BJV entering a binding transportation agreement with pipeline operator APA for the planned 35km Sturt Plateau Pipeline , as well as reaching a final investment decision (FID) for Shenandoah South. Tamboran has a working interest of 47.5pc in Shenandoah South, which is aiming for a FID mid-year, following Canadian independent Falcon Oil and Gas' decision to reduce its participation from 22.5pc to 5pc in March to reduce its cost exposure to the project. BJV is operated by Tamboran, which holds a 50:50 interest in the Tamboran B2 joint venture with privately-held Daly Waters Energy controlled by US billionaire Bryan Sheffield. The BJV also holds a 10-year, 36.5 PJ offtake deal with Australian utility Origin Energy signed in 2022. The NT is dependent on gas-fired power generation. Continuing supply problems at Italian oil firm Eni's offshore Blacktip field has it currently sourcing gas from Australian independent Santos' depleting Bayu-Undan field in the Timor Sea and the onshore Mereenie joint venture . Tamboran is aiming in the long term to develop its proposed 6.6mn t/yr Northern Territory LNG project , for which it is aiming to complete initial engineering this year. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Oman’s PDO to hit 700,000 b/d crude before 2030 target
Oman’s PDO to hit 700,000 b/d crude before 2030 target
Muscat, 22 April (Argus) — Oman's state-controlled PDO has several new greenfield projects that it is looking to bring on stream that should see it reach, and blow past, its target for 700,000 b/d of crude before the end of the decade. Speaking at the Oman Petroleum and Energy show in Muscat today, PDO's managing director Steve Phimister said the company has a portfolio of new "sizeable" projects in the pipeline and expects to reach 700,000 b/d by the "middle of the decade". "But what we would not be going to see in the next couple of years are multibillion dollar projects like Yibal Khuff or Rabab Harweel," he added. PDO's Yibal Khuff — one of Oman's most technically complex upstream projects — came online in 2021 and production was 20,000 b/d in 2022, according to the latest available data for production. Rabab Harweel , Oman's largest enhanced oil recovery (EOR) project, came onstream in 2018 and is producing more than 70,000 b/d. PDO adds around 10,000-15,000 b/d to its production on an average every year, according to Phimister. "Our strategy is to go above 700,000 b/d," he said. "We could, in principle, go quite way above 700,000 b/d of black oil, depending on oil price, shareholder's desire on where they want to invest". But he said PDO wants to grow in "a sustainable way" while "balancing out emission targets." The company in 2021 pledged to reach net zero carbon emissions from its operations by 2050 . The company is likely to hold onto its previous capital expenditure plans, although this is subject to final approval, Phimister said. "We have invested roughly the same amount of capital in the last few years and continue to do so," he said, adding that PDO now has a dual challenge of growing old business while reducing carbon emissions. PDO's planned capital expenditure for last year was $5bn and operating expenditure was at $2bn, in line with 2022 levels. The Omani state owns 60pc of PDO, Shell holds 34pc and TotalEnergies has 4pc. By Rithika Krishna Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Balticconnector gas pipe recommissioned after rupture
Balticconnector gas pipe recommissioned after rupture
London, 22 April (Argus) — The Finland-Estonia Balticconnector gas pipeline has been re-commissioned, with commercial flows starting at the beginning of today's gas day. There were renominations for 12.5GWh of flows towards Finland and 78.2GWh in the opposite direction for today as of early afternoon, suggesting net flows towards Estonia of around 66GWh. Finnish demand remains relatively low, while stocks at Finland's Inkoo LNG terminal need to be mostly depleted before the upcoming arrival of a new cargo on 26 April. The Balticconnector was taken off line on 8 October following a rupture caused by a dragging anchor . The system operators of Finland and Estonia said at the time that the pipeline could return in April at the earliest, meaning the initial timeline set out for repairs has been met. The recommissioning of the Balticconnector could allow Finnish prices to realign with those in the Baltic markets now that the two areas are connected again. During the Balticconnector's absence, Finland was entirely reliant on LNG deliveries to Inkoo, meaning prices were highly volatile and frequently held significantly above prices further south. Price differentials reached a peak of nearly €58/MWh ($62/MWh) in mid-January as a cold snap caused Finnish power-sector gas demand to soar while stocks at Inkoo were relatively low. That said, the basis between the two markets has narrowed significantly since mid-March, and the Finnish price has on several days held lower than in the Baltics ( see graph ). By Brendan A'Hearn Finnish vs Estonian-Latvian prices Oct 2023-present €/MWh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Business intelligence reports
Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.
Learn more