Ethanol fights for relevance in California LCFS
Ethanol producers concerned about their place in California's Low-Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) may take some comfort from changes under consideration at both the state and federal levels.
The California Air Resources Board (ARB) will adopt a series of amendments to the LCFS before the end of the year that some biofuel producers say tilts the field in favor of electric vehicles. But they may find a silver lining in some of the new opportunities state and federal policy could provide the industry.
One of the main concerns is a provision that would allow generators of LCFS credits from electricity to indirectly claim renewable power as a source, thereby lowering the carbon intensity of the fuel and increasing its value in the program. This could undermine the program's technology-neutral design, according to Renewable Fuels Association (RFA) president Bob Dinneen.
"Biofuel producers are not allowed to claim similar credit, even if the producer is able to present documentation verifying the purchase of biogas or renewable electricity," Dinneen said.
The ARB board likely will vote on the LCFS revisions in September. Those changes would require a 20pc reduction in the carbon intensity of transportation fuels by 2030, rather than the 10pc by 2020 under the existing regulation.
Ethanol remained the leading fuel in terms of credit generation last year, accounting for 35pc, but that number has dropped from nearly 80pc when the program started in 2011. The agency is projecting a decline in credits from cellulosic, sugar and starch ethanols, while credits from electricity steadily climb, in order for the state to meet the new target.
The state also has started to invest heavily in charging infrastructure to support a goal set by governor Jerry Brown (D) of 5mn zero-emission vehicles on the road by 2030. No similarly lofty goal exists for flex-fuel vehicles.
But the updated LCFS may also provide the industry with new opportunities.
The ARB plans to allow projects that capture CO2 and inject it into underground geologic formations to generate LCFS credits. A team of Stanford University researchers found that ethanol biorefineries could emerge as the primary beneficiary of such a move by taking advantage of favorable economics.
The average corn ethanol carbon intensity drops from 70g CO2e/megajoule to 40g CO2 with the use of carbon capture and sequestration, according to the ARB, which would earn producers more LCFS credits.
The industry may also get help from President Donald Trump, who appears intent on altering the federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) in ways that could lead to more ethanol use in California.
A group of US senators emerged yesterday from a meeting with Trump and said he agreed to direct the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to allow sales of gasoline with up to 15pc ethanol (E15) year-round.
The higher blend is normally prohibited during the summer months due to air pollution concerns.
Brooke Coleman, executive director of the Advanced Biofuels Business Council, said she was "encouraged that the White House has told EPA administrator [Scott] Pruitt to get to work immediately on a long-overdue fix to summer regulations that limit sales of E15."
California precludes the sale of E15, which is sold in 30 other states. The state limits ethanol to a 10pc blend, but ethanol groups are pushing to amend the regulation.
The ARB said it was "monitoring federal actions" and conducting tests but did not provide a timeline for further action.
Use of the fuel in California could cut greenhouse gas emissions by an additional 15mn-19mn t by 2030, the RFA estimates. That figure should appeal to state regulators who want to ensure that the LCFS plays a central role in reaching the state's climate goals.
Related news posts
Brazil 1Q tallow exports triple on long-term contracts
Brazil 1Q tallow exports triple on long-term contracts
Sao Paulo, 22 April (Argus) — Brazilian beef tallow exports totaled 73,930 metric tonnes (t) in the first quarter, a three-fold increase from the same three-month period in 2023 on rising demand. Almost 93pc of outflows between January and March were shipped to the US, according to data from Brazil's trade ministry. Long-term contracts explain the rising flow of exports, even though spot market arbitrage was closed throughout the first quarter (see chart) . The price of tallow in the Paranagua and Santos ports was $960/t fob on 19 April, keeping the arbitrage closed to US Gulf coast buyers, where the reference product was at $901/t on a delivered inland basis. Brazilian tallow is also negotiated at a premium against soybean oil, which closed at $882/t fob Paranagua on 19 April. This scenario has been observed since the 1 December 2023 start of Argus ' tallow export price assessment. Historically, vegetable oil in Brazil was traded at a discount to tallow, but strong demand has boosted the price of animal fat. Some biodiesel plants have been purchasing used cooking oil (UCO) or pork fat as an alternative. In 2023, there were doubts about whether the outflow of tallow from Brazil would be constant. Market participants now believe that the 2024 start of operations at new renewable diesel refineries in the US should sustain exports. Local suppliers that have already signed supply guarantee contracts — some up to three years — with American buyers are also considering export opportunities with Asia, including a new renewable diesel plant in Singapore that could receive Brazilian cargoes. Expansion projects are propelling US demand, including work that would bring capacity at Marathon Petroleum's Martinez Renewables plants in California to 2.35mn m³/y (40,750 b/d)and the Phillips 66 Rodeo unit in northern Californiato 3mn m³/y. These and other new projects will increase annual US demand for tallow by 5mn t. Maintenance on the horizon Maintenance at US refineries has Brazilian sellers bracing for a short-term drop in prices. Between May and June the Diamond Green Diesel (DGD) unit in Port Arthur, Texas, will shut down for maintenance, a stoppage that could impact demand for Brazilian inputs. Market participants have already observed a slight increase in domestic tallow supply, a change they attribute to maintenance at DGD. The advance of the soybean crop in Argentina is also expected to increase the supply of feedstocks to North American plants, as some refineries are returning to soybean oil after a hiatus of several years. The soybean oil quote on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) is an important reference for the price of tallow. By Alexandre Melo Renewable feedstocks in Brazil on fob basis R/t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Colombia's electricity woes add to unrest against Petro
Colombia's electricity woes add to unrest against Petro
Bogota, 22 April (Argus) — Colombians took the streets of major cities and towns across the nation on Sunday to protest mainly against health, pension and labor changes, but potential power outages are also creating discontent. Authorities estimated that about 250,000 Colombians marched in widespread protests, sparked by changes in healthcare. Congress in April had rejected President Gustavo Petro's proposals in the sector, and the government the next day seized the two largest private-sector health insurers. Protesting healthcare workers say the government did this to implement changes through a back channel. "Regulatory noise and risk are likely to remain high amid announcements, proposals, and measures [that do not require congressional approval], aimed at changing the game's rules in strategic sectors," brokerage Credicorp Capital said. Colombians also protested being on the verge of electricity rationing like that in neighboring Ecuador as hydroelectric reservoirs remain at record-low levels. Several unions and other associations have long warned the Petro administration to take measures to offset the effects of the El Nino weather phenomenon. Electricity distributors last year called for allowing bills for energy purchased on the spot market to be deferred and for loosening price index rules, among other proposals. The national business council sent at least three letters to the president on the issue. At least nine separate letters calling for preparation to prevent blackouts were sent to the president and ministers. Several actions were only recently implemented . "There are no risk of electricity rationing in Colombia," former energy minister Irene Velez said in 2023. "We do not understand why some people are interested in generating panic." Government weather forecasts also overestimated rainfall expected for March, leading hydroelectric plants to use more water in the reservoirs than they otherwise would have, said director of the thermoelectric generation association (Andeg) Alejandro Castaneda. Reservoir levels stood at 29.5pc today, rising thanks to rains since 19 April, up from 28.75pc on 18 April. Electricity rationing is set to begin when reservoirs drop below 27pc, according to grid operator XM. By Diana Delgado Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
German products demand up on supply concerns
German products demand up on supply concerns
Hamburg, 22 April (Argus) — German demand for heating oil and fuels rose sharply in the past week, with consumer concerns that conflict in the Middle East could restrict product availability were coupled with falling domestic product prices. Spot trade of heating oil, diesel and E5 gasoline submitted to Argus reached their highest weekly averages since the start of the year. The last time this amount of heating oil was traded was in December last year, and for gasoline and diesel it was at the beginning of October. Gasoline demand surged particularly in the Emsland and South regions, and middle distillates were primarily traded in Rhine-Main and Southwest. The missile attack by Iran on Israel on 13 April and Israel's drone attack on Iran on 19 April have heightened concerns of further escalation. An open conflict between Iran and Israel could affect supply of crude and gasoil from the Middle East by threatening major shipping routes of the Suez Canal, the strait of Hormuz and the eastern Mediterranean. These concerns led some German consumers to fill their tanks. Concurrently, product prices have fallen across Germany, further stimulating demand. Refineries in Karlsruhe and Neustadt-Vohburg have drawn buyers with fuel oil and gasoline prices below the German average. Heating oil at Miro's 310,000 b/d Karlsruhe traded at more than €2/100l below the national average, while gasoline at Bayernoil's 216,000 b/d Neustadt-Vohburg traded at a discount of almost €6/100l to the same average. By Johannes Guhlke Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Australia to launch 6GW renewables tender in May
Australia to launch 6GW renewables tender in May
Sydney, 22 April (Argus) — Australia's federal government plans to launch the country's largest ever tender for renewable energy in May, with more than a third of the capacity to be allocated to New South Wales (NSW) state. The first major tender under the federal government's expanded Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS) will offer support for 6GW of renewable generation capacity, with at least 2.2GW of the total set specifically to NSW, the federal and state governments said in a joint statement on 22 April. A market briefing outlining the tender process will be released in early May. A minimum of 300MW will also be exclusively allocated to projects in South Australia (SA), even though that is still subject to a final agreement between the federal and state governments. The remaining capacity will be allocated across the National Electricity Market, which apart from NSW and SA also includes Queensland, Victoria, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory. Tenders will run every six months until 2026-27 under the expanded CIS, with up to 15 years of support for a total of 32GW . This will consist of 23GW of renewable capacity like solar, wind and hydro and 9GW of dispatchable capacity such as pumped hydro and grid-scale batteries with at least two hours of dispatch. The inclusion of generation projects in NSW in the first CIS tender will replace the state's scheduled long-term energy service agreements (LTESA) tender under its NSW Roadmap. NSW will proceed though with the LTESA tender for long-duration storage infrastructure in the second quarter of 2024, as well as processes to award access rights for its Central West Orana and South West Renewable Energy Zones. The federal government also said it plans to launch a separate tender in Western Australia in mid-2024 targeting 500MW of dispatchable capacity. By Juan Weik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Business intelligence reports
Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.
Learn more