Adubos: fretes a partir do PR seguem em baixa
Os fretes rodoviários de adubos entre Paranaguá e as principais praças agrícolas no interior do país seguem em declínio desde o início deste ano em virtude da baixa procura pelo serviço em meio à ampla oferta de veículos no porto paranaense, segundo uma análise realizada pela Argus.
Historicamente, a demanda e o valor do serviço caem ao longo do primeiro semestre após o fortalecimento sazonal das entregas para uso na safrinha de milho no Centro-Oeste em janeiro – quando os fretes costumam atingir seu preço máximo anual devido à baixa oferta de frete retorno de adubos a partir dos portos. O cenário se repetiu este ano, mas os valores atuais encontram-se iguais ou menores daqueles normalmente observados em junho, quando costumam atingir o piso anual de preços.
Desde o início do ano, os indicadores de fretes da Argus entre Paranaguá e as cidades mato-grossenses de Rondonópolis e Sorriso despencaram 43,2pc em média para R$95-165/t, superando o recuo médio de 25,5pc visto neste mesmo período em 2017. Já os afretamentos até Rio Verde (GO) e Uberaba/Uberlândia (MG) caíram 37,3pc e 23,6pc desde janeiro para R$110-120/t e R$125-140/t, respectivamente.
A queda sazonal acumulada desde janeiro já supera os recuos vistos nos últimos anos e participantes não descartam retração adicional nos preços nas próximas semanas. O motivo seria o represamento da demanda, uma vez que consumidores têm adiado sua programação de entregas em função da alta volatilidade cambial e da falta de espaço para armazenamento no interior do país devido à colheita recorde de soja na safra 2017-18. Desde janeiro, a taxa de câmbio subiu 7,3pc para R$3,54 por dólar norte-americano.
Em junho do ano passado, o escoamento tardio das safras de soja e milho safrinha reduziu a oferta de armazenagem de adubos no interior do país, pressionando para baixo os afretamentos por conta da demanda represada em meio à ampla oferta de veículos em Paranaguá.
A queda nos fretes, entretanto, têm influenciado pouco a trajetória dos preços dos adubos no mercado interno, que reflete sobretudo as variações nos valores de importação destes produtos e na taxa de câmbio.
"Os fertilizantes, sobretudo os fosfatados e o potássio, estão subindo no interior do país junto com os valores de importação e com a desvalorização do real desde janeiro, apesar dos baixos custos com o transporte", afirmou o representante de uma trading que atua no Centro-Oeste. "A demanda por carregamentos está reduzida, mas deve subir entre maio-junho e elevar o valor dos fretes, encarecendo ainda mais os adubos na ponta consumidora", completou.
Os fretes devem se fortalecer a partir de meados de junho, acompanhando o aquecimento na demanda pelo serviço à medida em que as entregas de adubos para uso na safra 2018-19 ganhem ritmo. A procura atualmente represada pelo serviço poderá ser um fator de alta adicional sobre os fretes, sobrecarregando os sistemas de escoamento de fertilizantes e encarecendo ainda mais o valor dos afretamentos às vésperas das aplicações na próxima safra entre julho-agosto.
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Malaysia’s January-July urea exports rise
Malaysia’s January-July urea exports rise
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USCG updates ongoing lower Mississippi restrictions
USCG updates ongoing lower Mississippi restrictions
Houston, 17 September (Argus) — The US Coast Guard (USCG) will further limit northbound movement for barges transiting the lower Mississippi River despite slightly higher water levels following Hurricane Francine's landfall late last week. The USCG announced on 16 September that all northbound traffic traveling from Tunica, Mississippi, to Tiptonville, Tennessee, can only have five barges wide and only four of those can be loaded. Barges also cannot be loaded deeper than 9.5ft. Any southbound traffic from Vicksburg, Mississippi, to Tunica cannot move more than seven barges wide or be drafted deeper than 10.5ft. Southbound traffic from Tiptonville to Tunica can only be six barges wide or less and cannot have a draft greater than 10ft. The USCG has updated lower Mississippi river draft restrictions about four times since the end of August, but this is the third year in a row of notable low water for the fall on the lower Mississippi river which has triggered draft restrictions to arrive more quickly than previous years. Hurricane Francine brought significant rainfall to the lower Mississippi at the end of last week . But this has not eased the minds of mariners, who anticipate the water may leave as quickly as it arrived. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Ethiopian EABC urea tender's lowest offer at $355/t cif
Ethiopian EABC urea tender's lowest offer at $355/t cif
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Brazil's Parana ports handle record cargo in Aug
Brazil's Parana ports handle record cargo in Aug
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