Adubos: fretes a partir do PR seguem em baixa
Os fretes rodoviários de adubos entre Paranaguá e as principais praças agrícolas no interior do país seguem em declínio desde o início deste ano em virtude da baixa procura pelo serviço em meio à ampla oferta de veículos no porto paranaense, segundo uma análise realizada pela Argus.
Historicamente, a demanda e o valor do serviço caem ao longo do primeiro semestre após o fortalecimento sazonal das entregas para uso na safrinha de milho no Centro-Oeste em janeiro – quando os fretes costumam atingir seu preço máximo anual devido à baixa oferta de frete retorno de adubos a partir dos portos. O cenário se repetiu este ano, mas os valores atuais encontram-se iguais ou menores daqueles normalmente observados em junho, quando costumam atingir o piso anual de preços.
Desde o início do ano, os indicadores de fretes da Argus entre Paranaguá e as cidades mato-grossenses de Rondonópolis e Sorriso despencaram 43,2pc em média para R$95-165/t, superando o recuo médio de 25,5pc visto neste mesmo período em 2017. Já os afretamentos até Rio Verde (GO) e Uberaba/Uberlândia (MG) caíram 37,3pc e 23,6pc desde janeiro para R$110-120/t e R$125-140/t, respectivamente.
A queda sazonal acumulada desde janeiro já supera os recuos vistos nos últimos anos e participantes não descartam retração adicional nos preços nas próximas semanas. O motivo seria o represamento da demanda, uma vez que consumidores têm adiado sua programação de entregas em função da alta volatilidade cambial e da falta de espaço para armazenamento no interior do país devido à colheita recorde de soja na safra 2017-18. Desde janeiro, a taxa de câmbio subiu 7,3pc para R$3,54 por dólar norte-americano.
Em junho do ano passado, o escoamento tardio das safras de soja e milho safrinha reduziu a oferta de armazenagem de adubos no interior do país, pressionando para baixo os afretamentos por conta da demanda represada em meio à ampla oferta de veículos em Paranaguá.
A queda nos fretes, entretanto, têm influenciado pouco a trajetória dos preços dos adubos no mercado interno, que reflete sobretudo as variações nos valores de importação destes produtos e na taxa de câmbio.
"Os fertilizantes, sobretudo os fosfatados e o potássio, estão subindo no interior do país junto com os valores de importação e com a desvalorização do real desde janeiro, apesar dos baixos custos com o transporte", afirmou o representante de uma trading que atua no Centro-Oeste. "A demanda por carregamentos está reduzida, mas deve subir entre maio-junho e elevar o valor dos fretes, encarecendo ainda mais os adubos na ponta consumidora", completou.
Os fretes devem se fortalecer a partir de meados de junho, acompanhando o aquecimento na demanda pelo serviço à medida em que as entregas de adubos para uso na safra 2018-19 ganhem ritmo. A procura atualmente represada pelo serviço poderá ser um fator de alta adicional sobre os fretes, sobrecarregando os sistemas de escoamento de fertilizantes e encarecendo ainda mais o valor dos afretamentos às vésperas das aplicações na próxima safra entre julho-agosto.
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