Australia EV sales at 100pc of new sales by 2050

The sales of electric vehicles (EVs) in Australia could reach 100pc of all new car and commercial light vehicle sales by 2040 from the current less than the 1pc, according to a new Australian government funded report.

The report commissioned by the Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC) has three scenarios that include a no intervention scenario with no government policy to encourage EV take-up, a moderate intervention scenario and an accelerated intervention scenario. The 100pc forecast was based on the moderate scenario.

Under the moderate intervention scenario, plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) sales are to expand over the next five years from 3,100 last year to 70,700 EV sales. The rapid rise in uptake is based on a shift in PEV model availability, according to the report that was written by energy researchers Energeia.

The report showed that EV mass-market penetration depends on policy incentives that reduce the payback period for the EV, model availability that meets consumers' needs and charging infrastructure that ensures drivers can recharge away from home.

The report concluded that with the right combination of incentives, models and infrastructure, EV sales could surge in 2021, reaching half of new vehicle sales by 2030. In the moderate intervention scenario, EVs would reach 100pc of sales in 2040 or 1.89mn new vehicles annually and more than half of all vehicles on the road would be EVs by that time. While the EV market will grow without these supports, sales will not take off until 2027 and would grow more slowly, leaving more internal combustion engine vehicles on the road and delaying the task of electrifying the light vehicle fleet, the report said.

The CEFC funded report has forecast a faster uptake in EV sales by 2040 under its moderate scenario than the Bloomberg New Energy Finance report released this month.

A higher take-up of EVs in Australia could also affect greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Transport in Australia produces nearly 100mn t of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) each year or 19pc of national GHG emissions. Cars and light commercial vehicles together represent more than half of these emissions, with their emissions are projected to increase as the population grows and economic activity increases.

"Along with decarbonising the electricity sector, electrifying Australia's light vehicle fleet is an important step in meeting Australia's emissions reduction target," the report said. Australia has pledged to reduce GHG emissions by between 26-28pc by 2030 from 2005 levels.

The Australian coalition government has started a policy review of vehicle emissions standards. The Australian ministerial forum on vehicle emissions is currently considering adopting a standard of 105g of CO2e/km standard, which will bring Australia into line with the US targets for 2025. "Implementation of the 105g/km would underpin a significant increase in PEVs in Australia," the report said.