Merged Indian steel producers to restock coking coal
Indian steel producers have begun restocking coking coal from the spot market as they boost steel production at plants acquired from their bankrupt former rivals.
Indian private-sector firm Vedanta bought a 55,000t cargo of August-loading Oaky North from Australian producer Glencore at $197/t fob Australia yesterday. The cargo will be used at the 1.5mn t/yr integrated steel plant at Bokaro in east India's Jharkhand state, which it acquired in June from Electrosteel for $790mn.
Additional spot buying activity in the third quarter is expected from Tata Steel, which also gained approval from Indian's bankruptcy court last month to take over 5.6mn t/yr producer Bhushan Steel for $5.21bn.
Bankrupt steel mills such as Bhushan Steel and Electrosteel did not have enough credit to finance major purchases of coking coal, and instead kept production rates low and bought small cargoes of feedstocks as necessary. Solvent companies like Tata Steel and Vedanta can scale up production at these plants while profit margins for Indian mills remain firm.
"Bhushan Steel may have only been operating at 70-80pc of capacity, but Tata will want to increase to full capacity and they will need to rebuild coking coal stockpiles to do that," an Indian trader said.
But Tata Steel may be unable to rapidly expand its contract volumes from Australian producers, particularly while railway provider Aurizon is implementing a controversial maintenance plan that threatens to cut coking coal exports from Queensland by 20mn t/yr or more over the next year, the trader said.
"They are thinking about how they can cover their requirements, but it looks like they will have to rely on the spot market for supplies and BMA in particular because US and Canadian supplies will take too long to reach India," another Indian trader said.
Indian steel output can further increase as more acquisitions of bankrupt mills are approved. JSW Steel's takeover of Monnet Ispat is pending, while the acquisition processes for Bhushan Power & Steel and Essar Steel are still in the bidding stage.
Further consolidation of the industry can help India become the world's second-largest steel producer after China, overtaking Japan with more than 100mn t of steel output this year. This will coincide with India re-establishing itself as the world's largest coking coal importer this year with an estimated 59.1mn t.
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Baltimore to temporarily open 4th shipping channel
Baltimore to temporarily open 4th shipping channel
Cheyenne, 24 April (Argus) — The Port of Baltimore is preparing to open another, deeper temporary shipping channel this week so at least some of the vessels that have been stranded at the port can depart. The new 35-ft deep Fort McHenry Limited Access Channel is scheduled to be open to commercially essential vessels from 25 April until 6am ET on 29 April or 30 April "if weather adversely impacts vessel transits," according to a US Coast Guard Marine Safety Information Bulletin. The channel will then be closed again until 10 May. The channel also will have a 300-ft horizontal clearance and 214-ft vertical clearance. This will be the fourth and largest channel opened since the 26 March collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge. The Unified Command has said that the new limited access channel should allow passage of about 75pc of the types of vessels that typically move through the waterway. Vessels that have greater than 60,000 long tons (60,963 metric tonnes) of displacement will likely not be able to move through the channel and those between 50,000-60,000 long tons of displacement "will be closely evaluated" for transit. There were seven vessels blocked from exiting the port as of 27 March, including three dry bulk carriers, one vehicle carrier and one tanker, according to the US Department of Transportation. Two of the bulk carriers at berth in Baltimore are Kamsarmax-sized coal vessels, data from analytics firm Kpler show. The US Army Corps of Engineers still expects to reopen the Port of Baltimore's permanent 700-foot wide, 50-foot deep channel by the end of May. The Key Bridge collapsed into the water late last month when the 116,851dwt container ship Dali lost power and crashed into a bridge support column. Salvage teams have been working to remove debris from the water and containers from the ship in order to clear the main channel. By Courtney Schlisserman Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Coal sales at Australia’s Whitehaven fall in Jan-Mar
Coal sales at Australia’s Whitehaven fall in Jan-Mar
Sydney, 19 April (Argus) — Australian coal miner Whitehaven reported higher production but lower sales in January-March, with the firm increasing its percentage of high-grade thermal coal sales from the previous quarter. Saleable coal volumes rose by 8pc on the year to 3.9mn t but managed coal sales fell by 7pc to 3.8mn t compared to a year earlier. Sales were 83pc high-grade thermal, higher than 72pc in October-December and 68pc a year earlier. Whitehaven said run-of-mine production at Narrabri was below expectations because of the current panel's geological challenges, leading to reliability and maintenance problems with equipment. Whitehaven's overall sales guidance for the 2023-24 fiscal year remains unchanged at 16mn-17.5mn t for 2023-24 with a unit cost guidance, excluding royalties, of A$103-113/t ($66-$72/t) which the firm said is tracking at the top end. This is because of lower output from Narrabri, which is tracking below its output guidance of 5.1mn-5.7mn t for the fiscal year to 30 June. Whitehaven finalised takeovers of Australian-Japanese joint venture BHP Mitsubishi Alliance's (BMA) 12mn t/yr Blackwater and 4mn t/yr Daunia coking and thermal coal mine in Queensland on 2 April, with initial sales and production data to be reported in its April-June production report. The two mines are anticipated to deliver 4.5mn-5mn t run-of-mine output in April-June, with Whitehaven's revenue breakdown to be 70pc metallurgical and 30pc thermal on an annual basis post-acquisition as it seeks to pivot toward coking coal. Blackwater and Daunia contributed 10.11mn t and 4mn t respectively to BMA's total output in 2023. Whitehaven plans to sell down a 20pc stake in Blackwater to global steel producers, with a process presently underway. Whitehaven views the high calorific value (CV) thermal coal market as well supported in its key Asian markets, and said tightening of sanctions on Russian exporters is containing global supply. India's continuing growth is driving demand and underpinning price sentiment, Whitehaven said, despite a softening in metallurgical coal prices during the quarter . The Argus high-grade 6,000 kcal/kg NAR price averaged $126.74/t fob Newcastle and the 5,500 kcal/kg NAR coal price $93.85/t during January-March, compared with $134.23/t and $96.80/t respectively for October-December. By Tom Major Whitehaven quarterly results Jan-Mar '24 Oct-Dec '23 Jan-Mar '23 Volumes (mn t) Managed coal production 3.9 4.2 3.6 Managed coal sales 3.8 4.7 4.1 Managed coal stocks at period end 1 1.5 1.5 Coal sales mix (%) High-grade thermal coal 83 72 68 Other thermal coal 8 19 26 Metallurgical coal 9 9 6 Prices achieved ($/t) 136 142 280 Thermal coal 136 142 280 Metallurgical coal 213 166 234 Source: Whitehaven Australian coal price comparisons ($/t) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
BHP cuts Australian met coal sales guidance again
BHP cuts Australian met coal sales guidance again
Sydney, 18 April (Argus) — Australian mining firm BHP has cut its coking coal guidance for the 2023-24 fiscal year to 30 June to a new decade-low of 43mn-45mn t because of the impact of wet weather and cyclones on its Queensland operations. The BHP Mitsubishi Alliance (BMA), which is 50pc owned by BHP and 50pc by Japanese trading house Mitsubishi, had already cut its guidance by 18pc in January to 46mn-50mn t of metallurgical coal for 2023-24, down from the previous guidance of 56mn-62mn t issued in July. At that time it cited the impact of the sale of the Blackwater and Daunia coking and thermal coal mines in Queensland to Australian independent Whitehaven, which it completed on 2 April, maintenance, a fatality at its 10mn t/yr Saraji mine and increased removal of waste. The latest downgrade was blamed again on the Saraji incident, as well as on wet cyclonic weather in Queensland and an inventory rebuild after the impact of flooding and labour shortages in 2022 and 2023. The inventory rebuild will continue into calendar year 2025, which could further weigh on sales into 2024-25. The further reduction in expected sales volumes led BHP to increase its cost guidance for 2023-24 to $119-125/t from $110-116/t in January and from $95-105/t in June. BHP received an average price of $274.99/t for hard coking coal and $204.55/t for weak coking coal during July-December, up from $242.52/t and $190.74/t for January-June and $270.65/t and $252.12/t in July-December 2022. It defines hard coking coal as those with a coke strength after reaction (CSR) of 35 and above, with weak coking coal being those with a CSR of below 35. Argus last assessed the premium hard low-volatile metallurgical coal price at $249/t fob Australia on 17 March, down from $336.50/t on 17 January. By Jo Clarke BHP metallurgical coal sales (mn t) Jan-Mar '24 Oct-Dec '23 Jan-Mar '23 Jul-Mar '23-24 July-Mar '22-23 Coking coal 5.41 4.76 5.37 14.66 16.86 Weak coking coal 0.93 0.75 0.71 2.21 2.04 Thermal coal 0.02 0.20 0.10 0.52 0.80 Total BMA 6.36 5.71 6.19 17.39 19.70 Total BMA (100%) 12.72 11.41 12.37 34.78 39.39 Source: BHP Australian metallurgical coal prices ($/t) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Q&A: Ramaco adding production, sees market growth
Q&A: Ramaco adding production, sees market growth
New York, 16 April (Argus) — Randall Atkins is a founder and chief executive of metallurgical coal producer Ramaco Resources. He also has been involved in energy-related investment and financing activity for over 40 years. In this Q&A, edited for length and clarity, he discusses effects from the Francis Scott Key bridge collapse, his outlook for coal and the company's research projects. What effect has the Key bridge collapse and Port of Baltimore closing had on Ramaco and the US coal industry in general? Like most things of that tragic nature, it is going to take longer than everyone expects to actually solve the problem. I think where it is going to impact producers probably more is on the rails. There will be a need for...producers to rearrange stockpiles and to rearrange where they are going to try and ship, even at reduced levels. Particularly, CSX is going to have an immense logistical complexity to deal with over the near-term. We do not ship from Baltimore. We have not seen any problems, knock on wood, with our rail shipments post the incident. What are your long-term projections for metallurgical coal given expectations that low-volatile coal reserves will shrink in coming decades and the steel industry could be in oversupply? Low vol coal has traditionally been the highest priced coal and the dearest, if you will. High vol A coal has over the last few years grown in importance, and to the extent that there is any new increase in production in the US, it's high vol. What we perceive is that there is going to be a crowding in the high vol space. As a result, our increase in production is primarily in low vol. As far as the demand side is concerned, we do not believe that blast furnace steel demand is going to decline anytime soon. There's a lot of noise from the green community that hydrogen is going to replace coal in blast furnaces. We took some advice on that from the IEA…and when that question was posed (to IEA), the answer that was given was it would take about $1.5 trillion to build a pilot plant using hydrogen by 2035 and probably about another equal or greater sum to build a commercial facility by 2040. So, I don't lose a lot of sleep on the demand for coal for blast furnaces. What I do see shifting, however, is the US has held relatively steady at about 20mn short tons (18.1mn metric tonnes) of met coal demand over the last 10 to 15 years. The growth is clearly overseas, and the growth is clearly at the moment in Asia. When we started back in 2017, and 2018 was really our first year of production, we predominantly sold coal domestically; I think 80pc of our coal went to US steel mills. Now that is almost reversed. We're going to sell probably this year, 70pc overseas, and about a third or less domestically. With Europe moving towards electric arc furnace technology and significant new blast furnace capacity coming online in Asia, what kind of role will the US play as a coal supplier over the coming years? It is cheaper to use a blast furnace than electric arc. And the steel that they (Asian companies) mostly require is the heavier steel for cars and buildings and things of that nature. So, they have a bias towards blast furnace capacity. The US and Europe are very developed economies that are trying to go and wean away from coal, (while) the rest of the world is aggressively moving further into coal. People will shake their heads at the cost that European and American consumers will start to have to pay for that privilege. We see market growth is still there, but it's a different kind of growth. It will be more in the Asian markets, predominantly some in Europe, some in South America and Africa. The low vol coal demand in Asia is extremely strong because while they are able to buy high vol product from Australia very inexpensively, they do not have the low vol production. They need that to blend up to get the proper mix in their blast furnaces. There is a very good future for low vol, and that is the direction we are positioning ourselves. How confident is Ramaco about securing its investments in the longer run given the emphasis on ESG? What I see is sort of a dichotomy. In the thermal coal business, there's not a lot of investment in new mining there for the obvious reason that their customer base is declining. On the met side, it is a bit shortsighted from an investment standpoint because of the composition of the ownership of met coal companies. Virtually every major metallurgical coal producer except for us went through bankruptcy and post-bankruptcy proceedings. Their board composition became essentially distressed debt investors...Their interest was not developing a long-term coal company. Strategically their vision was: "How can we most quickly get money back out of that coal company?" We are certainly the only coal company that is doubling in size. We produced a little under 4mn st last year. We will be at about 4.5mn st this year. We can maybe go higher, depending upon the market. The market is not strong right now. The other issue (for coal producers) even when they weren't doing special dividends, is they've now shifted to doing large-scale share buybacks. You are starting to see the cost curve increase for most domestic coal producers. What you haven't seen, but I think you will probably find over the next probably 18 to 24 months, is you will begin to see depletion kick in. The amount of coal that they are able to produce from their existing operation will begin to decline. And that is strictly a result of not investing in new mine production. My approach was to kind of be a little bit of an outlier and then approach coal to products as an alternative use, certainly for thermal coal. And that, of course, brought us to rare earth (mineral extraction). Do you have funding for Ramaco's rare earth materials projects? Let me step back one step. We introduced the idea that we actually had rare earth (deposits) in May 2023….When we sent the samples to be tested, they tested them as if they were hard minerals. In other words, they did not combust off the organic material. What we have done since then, is we went back and we had samples that were probably 200-300 parts per million. From a commercial standpoint, we have kind of crossed the Rubicon that this is indeed sufficiently concentrated that it makes commercial sense. Now what we are doing is we are going through a process of further chemical analysis and testing to determine what is the best extraction and refinement technique. And the last point you raised was financing. We have a very nice growing mining metallurgical business, which can provide the funding to do whatever we want to do on rare earth. I am not too concerned about our financing capability. Any updates on your coal-to-carbon product projects ? We have looked at a number of different things with the national labs. We started looking at carbon fiber, which could be made from coal and we have got some patents around some very interesting processes. The areas that we are now focusing on...are using coal to make synthetic graphite. The other thing we are working on is using coal for direct air capture. We are considering going into a pilot phase sometime starting later this year with Oak Ridge National Laboratory on a synthetic graphite plant. As far as direct air capture, we probably have more work to do. We are also working on that with Oak Ridge. But I would hope that sometime by 2025, certainly 2026, we would perhaps have our first product, quote unquote, to be able to offer into the market. And it would be delightful if it was synthetic graphite. By Elena Vasilyeva Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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