Latin America may sever ties to Venezuela: Update

Adds details on Bogota meeting, Mexico stance.

Latin American and Caribbean countries are moving closer to severing diplomatic relations with Venezuela and are weighing tougher measures ahead of the controversial 10 January re-inauguration of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro.

Representatives of the Lima Group, which was formed by a dozen Latin American and Caribbean countries and Canada in August 2017 to coordinate action on Venezuela, will meet in Bogota on 19 December to consider its response to the political and economic crisis in the Opec country.

Colombia´s foreign ministry confirmed that the meeting will take place at the vice ministerial level, and will be chaired by the country´s vice minister for multilateral affairs, Adriana Mejia.

Except for Venezuela´s close political allies Cuba and Nicaragua, the region no longer depends on Venezuelan crude or refined products, so a diplomatic cutoff would have no practical commercial effect. But the Lima Group, which sought a unified regional position on Venezuela to counter divisions in the Organization of American States (OAS), remains fractured. Some countries, particularly in the Southern Cone, are more hawkish, seeking an outright cutoff of relations and a possible travel ban targeted at senior Venezuelan officials. Others to the north such as Panama and Caribbean islands that have financial, logistical and potential natural gas ties to Venezuela and state-owned oil company PdV are more cautious and may just withdraw ambassadors rather than sever ties altogether.

Colombia, the most exposed because of its volatile 2,200km border with Venezuela, has not had an ambassador in Caracas since March 2017. Bogota is spearheading efforts to garner international support for Venezuelan migrants, which number more than a million in Colombia alone.

Some members of Venezuela´s divided opposition want the Lima Group to recognize a government in exile, probably based in Bogota, at the same time that it breaks relations with Caracas. Others are pushing for US-led military action.

Brazil´s incoming president Jair Bolsonaro, who takes office on 1 January, is a hardliner, along with the leadership in Chile, Argentina and Peru. A big question mark hangs over the stance of Mexico, which belongs to the Lima Group. But the country´s position is shifting under new leftist president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (Amlo). Maduro attended Amlo´s 1 December inauguration in Mexico City, one in a series of recent international trips aimed at showing that Venezuela is not isolated.

Mexico´s foreign ministry said it could not confirm at this time whether a government representative would attend next week´s meeting in Bogota. Foreign minister Marcelo Ebrard has previously said Mexico would not intervene in Venezuela and wants to have "friendly relations" with all countries.

Peruvian foreign minister Nestor Popolizio told reporters in Lima on 7 December that while Peru opposes any form of military intervention, his country wants more international pressure to "help the Venezuelan opposition find a mechanism for transition and end the Maduro regime." Maduro was re-elected in May 2018 in a voting process widely condemned abroad as fraudulent.

Popolizio acknowledged that it will not be easy to persuade all members of the Lima Group to break off ties with Caracas. "We don´t know if all the members will agree, but our goal is that all decisions be applied in some way by all the member countries," he said.

Another proposal is for the Lima Group to follow Canada, the EU and US by banning targeted Venezuelan officials from visiting member nations, Popolizio said.

In an 8 December response on Twitter to the Peruvian official´s remarks, Venezuelan foreign minister Jorge Arreaza accused Lima Group governments of collusion with drug traffickers and paramilitary groups. The Venezuelan government claims the group had a hand in a drone incident earlier this year allegedly meant to assassinate Maduro. The countries in the region deny any intervention.

Peru pulled its ambassador from Venezuela in May 2017 and withdrew an invitation to Maduro for the Summit of the Americas last April in Lima, a decision backed by the Lima Group.

Peru is second to Colombia in the number of Venezuelan migrants who have entered the country over the past couple of years. The national migration service puts the number of Venezuelans in Peru above 600,000.

"We need a much more energetic international response for countries receiving immigrants to ensure a safe, orderly and regulated process," said Popolizio.

The migration flow could accelerate ahead of 10 January.

Maduro hosted the Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan and took a high-profile trip to Moscow last week. The government is also showing off its 2019 assumption of the rotating presidency of Opec. Abstention exceeded 70pc in municipal elections held yesterday and celebrated by the government as a consolidation of democracy.