Emboldened opposition renews challenge to Maduro
The opposition will lead protests this month, but its ability to challenge Caracas depends on firmer support at home and abroad
Venezuela's emboldened political opposition is seeking to leverage newfound international recognition to pursue state assets abroad and possibly intervene in debt disputes against the government.
The opposition-controlled National Assembly, headed by the newly elected Juan Guaido, is moving swiftly to consolidate its constitutional authority having won widespread recognition as Venezuela's only legitimate governing body following the controversial re-election of autocratic president Nicolas Maduro.
Guaido is seen by some countries as an interim president who will usher in fresh elections. He was briefly detained by Venezuela's intelligence agency Sebin on 13 January, which the government denounced as a rogue operation. The incident further galvanised Maduro's opponents in the run-up to a planned 23 January national protest aimed at compelling the president to resign.
The assembly has approved a resolution that would seek to "guarantee the protection of the assets of the Venezuelan state" by petitioning foreign governments and financial institutions. It ultimately aims to redirect oil revenue away from the Maduro government, but only appears viable if the US formally recognises the assembly's executive authority.
Washington has called Maduro's regime illegitimate and expressed support for Guaido after he declared he is ready to assume the presidency under the constitution's authority until new elections are held. A formal withdrawal of recognition of Maduro's government would give the opposition pretext to claim Venezuela's assets in the US — but Washington is yet to take that step.
The opposition is starting to approach creditors in anticipation of possible judicial interventions or even a debt restructuring proposal. But such overtures are premature without official international recognition of Guaido's claim. The assembly's resolution seeks to block the Maduro government from refinancing debts and securing new loans, but both of these abilities are effectively already thwarted by US financial sanctions.
The assembly's measure also aims to prevent Caracas from awarding upstream contracts and transferring or selling overseas assets, such as state-owned PdV's US refining arm Citgo. Such moves are already supposed to require legislative approval under the 1999 constitution that Maduro has ignored. Among the many obstacles blocking the assembly's authority is its lack of control over Venezuela's official gazette, where all government acts are published.
Suffer little children
Assembly leaders hope that an amnesty decree will encourage elements of the armed forces and national security services to turn against Maduro. But the senior ranks are not expected to flip. Military officers hold almost half of Maduro's cabinet posts, and the military has a firm grip on strategic sectors such as the oil industry, gold, diamonds, coal, metals, agriculture and construction.
Maduro dismisses the new opposition leadership as "little children". He has announced a slew of economic measures since his 10 January inaugurationthat appear likely to exacerbate the economy's freefall. These include increasing the minimum wage to the equivalent of $5.50/month at the current black market exchange rate, revaluing pseudo-currency the petro, increasing mandatory capital reserve deposits at the central bank, and vowing to maintain across-the-board price controls. He has also pledged to hike taxes on wealthy individuals and large corporations. And Maduro reiterates a longstanding official target of Venezuela hitting 5mn b/d of crude production capacity by 2025. Output is currently around 1.1mn b/d, after falling by 900,000 b/d over the past year.
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LNG Energy eyes sanctions-hit Venezuela oil blocks
LNG Energy eyes sanctions-hit Venezuela oil blocks
Caracas, 25 April (Argus) — A Canadian firm plans to revive two onshore oil blocks in Venezuela, but the conditional deals signed with struggling state-owned PdV come just as the US is reinstating broad sanctions on the South American country. LNG Energy Group's Venezuela unit agreed two deals with PdV to boost output in five fields in the Nipa-Nardo-Niebla and Budare-Elotes blocks, which produce about 3,000 b/d of light- to medium-grade crude, the company said on Wednesday. The Canadian company, which operates in neighboring Colombia, would receive 50-56pc of production of the blocks. Venezuela's oil ministry declined to comment. But finalizing the contracts depends on providing required investment to develop the fields within 120 days of the contract signing on 17 April, LNG Energy said. And the signing came on the same day as the US reimposed oil sanctions on Venezuela and gave most companies until 31 May to wind down business. LNG Energy Group said it intends to comply with existing and upcoming US sanctions, noting that the conditional contracts were executed within the terms of the temporary lifting of sanctions — general license 44 — but it will abide by the new license 44A. The reimposition of US sanctions on Venezuela prohibits new investment in the country's energy sector, at the threat of US criminal and economic penalties. "The company will assess in the coming days the applicability of license 44A to its intended operations in Venezuela and determine the most appropriate course of action," LNG Energy said. "The company intends to operate in full compliance with the applicable sanctions regimes." The two blocks are in the adjacent Anzoategui and Monagas states, part of the Orinoco extra heavy oil belt. Most of Venezuela's output is medium- to heavy-grade crude. Both PdV and Chevron have drilling rigs working in those two states, in separate workover and drilling campaigns. Venezuela is now producing above 800,000 b/d, after the US allowed Chevron to increase production and investment under separate waivers. By Carlos Camacho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US economic growth slows to 1.6pc in 1Q
US economic growth slows to 1.6pc in 1Q
Houston, 25 April (Argus) — The US economy in the first quarter grew at a 1.6pc annual pace, slower than expected, while a key measure of inflation accelerated. Growth in gross domestic product (GDP) slowed from a 3.4pc annual rate in the fourth quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported on Thursday. The first-quarter growth number, the first of three estimates for the period, compares with analyst forecasts of about a 2.5pc gain. Personal consumption slowed to a 2.5pc annual rate in the first quarter from a 3.3pc pace in the fourth quarter, partly reflecting lower spending on motor vehicles and gasoline and other energy goods. Gross private domestic investment rose by 3.2pc, with residential spending up 13.9pc after a 2.8pc expansion in the fourth quarter. Government spending growth slowed to 1.2pc from 4.6pc. Private inventories fell and imports rose, weighing on growth. The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, which the Federal Reserve closely follows, rose by 3.7pc following 2pc annual growth in the fourth quarter, although consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics said revisions to the data should pull the index lower in coming months. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to begin cutting its target lending rate in September following sharp increases in 2022 and early 2023 to fight inflation that surged to a high of 9.1pc in June 2022. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Indonesia's Pertamina to complete gasoline unit in Aug
Indonesia's Pertamina to complete gasoline unit in Aug
Singapore, 25 April (Argus) — Indonesian state-controlled refiner Pertamina aims to finish building its new 90,000 b/d residual fluid catalytic cracker (RFCC) in the Balikpapan refinery in August, the firm said. The RFCC is a gasoline production unit, which typically uses residual fuel as a feedstock. The unit will be able to produce propylene, LPG and 92R gasoline that will meet the Euro V specifications, said Pertamina last week, without disclosing further details such as the start-up date. The newly built RFCC unit will be the largest in Indonesia, with the second-largest being the 83,000 b/d RFCC in Balongan and the third-largest the 54,000 b/d RFCC in Cilacap. The new RFCC will also help reduce Indonesia's reliance on gasoline imports. Indonesia currently imports around 9mn-11mn bl/month of gasoline, making it the largest gasoline buyer in the Asia-Pacific. The new RFCC will increase Pertamina's gasoline production by a conservative estimate of 45,000 b/d or 1.3mn bl, or around 10pc of Pertamina's current import demand, according to estimates from an oil analyst. The installation of the new RFCC is part of Pertamina's Refinery Development Master Plan (RDMP), which will take place in two phases. The first phase includes revamping existing units at the Balikpapan refinery, such as the crude distillation unit, vacuum distillation unit, and hydrocracking unit. It also involves building new units, such as the aforementioned RFCC, a gasoline hydrotreater, diesel hydrotreater, and naphtha hydrotreater. The second phase includes building a new residue desulphurisation unit. The RDMP also includes expanding the capacity of the Balikpapan refinery from 260,000 b/d to 350,000 b/d, said Pertamina's chief executive officer Nicke Widyawati. The Balikpapan expansion is expected to be completed in May. By Aldric Chew Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Barge delays at Algiers lock near New Orleans
Barge delays at Algiers lock near New Orleans
Houston, 24 April (Argus) — Barges are facing lengthy delays at the Algiers lock near New Orleans as vessels reroute around closures at the Port Allen lock and the Algiers Canal. Delays at the Algiers Lock —at the interconnection of the Mississippi River and the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway— have reached around 37 hours in the past day, according to the US Army Corps of Engineers' lock report. Around 50 vessels are waiting to cross the Algiers lock. Another 70 vessels were waiting at the nearby Harvey lock with a six-hour wait in the past day. The closure at Port Allen lock has spurred the delays, causing vessels to reroute through the Algiers lock. The Port Allen lock is expected to reopen on 28 April, which should relieve pressure on the Algiers lock. Some traffic has been rerouted through the nearby Harvey lock since the Algiers Canal was closed by a collapsed powerline, the US Coast Guard said. The powerline fell on two barges, but no injuries or damages were reported. The wire is being removed by energy company Entergy. The canal is anticipated to reopen at midnight on 25 April. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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