Most of Venezuela still dark, oil ops impacted
Nearly all Venezuelans are still without electricity this morning because of an unprecedented nationwide blackout that has paralyzed economic activity and crippled the already precarious oil industry.
The widespread outage started yesterday afternoon, and state-owned utility Corpoelec says power will be restored today, without detailing when.
Communications inside national oil company PdV have nearly collapsed. The industry relies on the grid for most of its operations, so production, transportation, processing and exports are likely severely impacted.
"There is hardly any communication," a PdV official tells Argus, adding that people are staying home. "Pdvsa has a contingency plan but there is not much to hope for."
According to a 1 March PdV internal report, only 775MW of the company‘s total thermal generating capacity of 2.87GW was operational at the time. The main refining complex, 940,000 b/d CRP comprising the Amuay and Cardon refineries, has an independent thermal power unit but it has been plagued by operational problems for years. The CRP was operating at only around 10pc of capacity before the blackout because of equipment failures and a shortage of feedstock.
PdV's upstream and downstream operations were already pummeled by a host of chronic problems, including a lack of maintenance, spare parts and skilled labor. US sanctions have diminished refined products supply and severely limited crude export options. Prior to the loss of power, Venezuela was producing around 950,000 b/d of crude, off by around 150,000 b/d from February.
Electricity minister Luis Motta blamed sabotage at the 10GW Guri hydroelectric complex, an often-repeated political assessment during crises.
"The electricity war announced and directed by US imperialism against our people will be defeated," president Nicolas Maduro said on Twitter last night.
His rival for the presidency, opposition leader and National Assembly president Juan Guaidó, said on Twitter that the blackout was "evidence of the inefficiency of the usurper," referring to Maduro. "The recovery of the electricity sector and the country will take place when then usurpation ends."
Guaidó is considered Venezuela´s legitimate interim president by most Western countries.
The blackout has ratcheted up nerves in a country that was already on edge over the political standoff between Maduro and Guaidó.
Venezuelan military installations are also without electricity this morning, army sources tell Argus.
Related news posts
Australian new environment agency to speed up approvals
Australian new environment agency to speed up approvals
Sydney, 16 April (Argus) — The Australian federal government announced today it will introduce new legislation in the coming weeks to implement the second stage of its Nature Positive Plan, which includes setting up a national environment protection agency to speed up approval decisions. The planned Environment Protection Australia (EPA) will initially operate within the Department of Climate Change, Energy, Environment and Water until it transitions to become an independent statutory agency, with "strong new powers and penalties" to better enforce federal laws, the government said on 16 April. The EPA chief will be an independent statutory appointment, similar to the Australian federal police commissioner, so that "no government can interfere" with the new agency's enforcement work. The agency will be able to audit businesses to ensure they are compliant with environment approval conditions and issue environment protection orders to anyone breaking the law. Penalties will be increased, with courts able to impose fines of up to A$780mn ($504mn) or jail terms for up to seven years in cases of extremely serious intentional breaches of federal environment law. EPA will also be tasked with speeding up development decisions, including project assessments in areas such as renewable energy and critical minerals. Almost A$100mn will be allocated to optimise the approval processes, with its budget directed to support staff to assess project proposals and help businesses comply with the law. A new independent body Environment Information Australia (EIA) will also be created to provide environmental data to the government and the public through a public website. EIA will need to develop an online database giving businesses quicker access to data and helping EPA to make faster decisions. It will also need to publish state of environment reports every two years. The government said that an audit ordered by environment minister Tanya Plibersek last year found that around one in seven developments could be in breach of their offset conditions, when a business had not properly compensated for the impact a development was having on the environment, highlighting "the need to urgently strengthen enforcement". The planned new legislation is part of the federal government's reform of Australia's environmental laws including the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act. Resource project decisions are currently made by the environment minister, with the move to an independent agency will removing any perception of political interference in such decisions, the government said when it first announced the reforms in late 2022. The first stage of the reform was completed late last year with new laws passed to create the Nature Repair Market, with further stages expected to be implemented in the future, the government said. Tight timing Resources industry body the Chamber of Minerals and Energy of Western Australia (CMEWA) welcomed the announcement that the federal government will take a "staged approach" to the implementation of the reforms but noted the timing of EPA's implementation was "tight". "We continue to hold reservations about the proposed decision-making model and will continue to advocate for a model that balances ecologically sustainable development considerations and includes the [environment] minister as the decision maker," CMEWA chief executive Rebecca Tomkinson said. The Minerals Council of Australia (MCA) said that it had been advocating for the creation of EIA, whose future collated data "will provide greater certainty and reduced costs for both government and project proponents", which "may shave years off project development". But it was cautious about potential "unintended consequences" stemming from more bureaucracy. "Australia has one of the most comprehensive environmental approvals processes in the world and the MCA has been clear about the significant risks of duplicative, complex and uncertain approvals processes pose to the minerals sector, the broader economy and the environment if we do not get this right," it warned. By Juan Weik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
La deuda de Pemex sobresale en el panorama electoral
La deuda de Pemex sobresale en el panorama electoral
Mexico City, 15 April (Argus) — La campaña presidencial de México termina en menos de dos meses, pero aunque ambas candidatas proponen una revolución verde en el sector de la energía, ninguna de ellas ha propuesto un plan viable para evitar la implosión financiera de la empresa estatal Pemex. Claudia Sheinbaum, candidata de continuidad para la política energética nacionalista del Presidente Andrés Manuel López Obrador, anunció el mes pasado su estrategia energética, comprometiéndose a aumentar la producción de petróleo y gas de Pemex, aumentar el rendimiento de las refinerías y la producción petroquímica, desarrollar una industria nacional de litio y buscar un nuevo enfoque en la generación de energía renovable. La antigua jefa de gobierno de la Ciudad de México no ha proporcionado detalles sobre ninguna de estas políticas, pero es difícil conciliar su compromiso con una ampliación de las energías renovables con un límite en la inversión del sector privado sin depender en gran medida del aumento de la financiación de la estatal de electricidad CFE. La política de Sheinbaum en materia de energías renovables es la única desviación de la agenda energética de López Obrador, aunque las agencias de calificación, los inversores y los analistas coinciden en que es probable que Pemex incurra en impago sin una amplia reforma estructural. Pemex tenía una deuda total de $106,100 millones a finales de 2023 y se enfrenta a $10,000 millones en vencimientos de deuda este año. El impulso del gobierno para aumentar el rendimiento de las refinerías ha generado pérdidas de miles de millones de dólares para Pemex. Solo en 2023, la división de refinación de Pemex reportó una pérdida de $4,400 millones, una mejora con respecto a una pérdida de $11,000 millones el año anterior. De 2019 a 2023, la división de refinación de la empresa registró más de $46,000 millones en pérdidas. López Obrador puso el rescate de Pemex y sus refinerías en el centro de su administración. Pero a pesar de no detener la espiral de deuda de la empresa, la disminución de la producción de crudo, el empeoramiento del récord de seguridad y el aumento de las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero, sus políticas han tenido un coste que Sheinbaum no ha querido refutar públicamente. En su lugar, se compromete a lanzar el proyecto de la refinería Olmeca de 340,000 b/d de la empresa, que ya tiene dos años de retraso y ha costado al menos el doble del presupuesto original de $8,000 millones, dinero que las agencias de calificación afirman que debería haberse dirigido al negocio principal de Pemex en la exploración y producción. El apoyo gubernamental a Pemex, por un total de más de $52,000 millones entre 2019 y 2023, ha sido incapaz de mover la aguja en sus métricas financieras u operativas, y ahora amenaza la calificación crediticia soberana de México. Sheinbaum ha evitado abordar públicamente la carga de la enorme deuda de Pemex, proponiendo únicamente "niveles de deuda aceptables en el sector de la energía". Pero dada la importancia de Pemex para el proyecto político del partido Morena, además los cientos de miles de puestos de trabajo que dependen de Pemex, no se puede permitir que la empresa incumpla. Por otro lado, la candidata de oposición Xóchitl Gálvez pide poner fin al "caos financiero" en Pemex, diversificar su negocio hacia iniciativas de bajas emisiones de carbono, políticas rigurosas de emisiones, el cierre de sus refinerías más contaminantes, un nuevo enfoque en renovables y una reapertura de la industria energética a la inversión del sector privado. Sin embargo, a pesar de su perspectiva más favorable para la inversión privada, Gálvez aún no ha ofrecido una solución detallada para la situación financiera de Pemex. Sus planes para Pemex pueden ser demasiado radicales para los votantes, especialmente dentro del importante sindicato de trabajadores del petróleo, que repudió rápidamente sus llamados el mes pasado para cerrar dos refinerías. Incluso si ganara, la oposición que representa podría tener dificultades para acordar un camino a seguir para Pemex. Si la próxima administración vuelve a abrir la puerta a la inversión del sector privado, el nuevo gobierno se enfrentará a un esfuerzo lento para reconstruir los reguladores de la energía que han sufrido de baja inversión en los últimos seis años. Pero será el tamaño de la posible victoria de Sheinbaum lo que determinará el futuro del sector de la energía mexicano. Una mayoría convincente podría permitirle aprobar las grandes reformas energéticas que eludieron a López Obrador y seguir limitando la participación del sector privado en el sector energético, justo cuando la inversión directa extranjera en México está en auge en otras industrias. Por Rebecca Conan Producción de crudo en México Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
German power spot index to deliver above expectations
German power spot index to deliver above expectations
London, 15 April (Argus) — The German power spot index has delivered below over-the-counter (OTC) expectations in April as wind and solar output have averaged above seasonal norms. But forward prices suggest that the spot index is on track to deliver above OTC expectations on declining wind generation in the second half of the month. The German spot index averaged €50.49/MWh over 1-16 April, below the April OTC contract's expiry of €54.90/MWh. But the index is on track to deliver at around €58.46/MWh across the month, based on the weighted-average of the expiry of week 16 at €65.70/MWh and the latest assessments of weeks 17 and 18 at €71.20/MWh and €59.50/MWh, respectively, and the spot index in April. Combined onshore and offshore wind generation has climbed to 19.65GW this month, well above the 13.4GW average for April 2019-23. And solar output has averaged above 8.6GW, a new high for April. Rising renewable output has weighed on thermal generation, with combined gas, coal and lignite-fired output down to 10.5GW, the lowest of any month in over seven years. Working day-ahead clean dark spreads for 40pc-efficient plants have averaged minus €28.46/MWh for delivery on 1-15 April from minus €13.88/MWh in March. Clean spark spreads for plants with 55pc efficiency have fallen by €14.68/MWh on the month and into negative territory at minus €11.17/MWh. And clean lignite spreads for 36pc-efficient plants have averaged minus €13.51/MWh from €0.29/MWh last month. The seasonal rise in temperatures has also lowered demand by 1.6GW on the month to 50.35GW in April, outpacing the month-on-month decline in generation by over 300MW. And Germany has been a net exporter on six days this month, compared with seven days in all of March . But wind output is forecast to remain below the 2019-23 average on most days in the second half of the month, data from analytics platform Kpler show, while peak-load solar output is expected to remain below a load factor of 30pc — or 16GW — over 16-21 April, which could support the spot index and imports. And the May contract rose to its highest in almost three months on its latest assessment on 12 April at €64.60/MWh, up from under €50/MWh on its first assessment as the front month. Thermal generating margins for base and peak-load delivery in May have averaged well below zero in April, with even higher-efficiency coal, lignite and gas-fired plants priced out of the mix. Germany is likely to continue importing from its Swiss and French neighbours in May. Swiss hydropower stocks widened their surplus to the long-term average in week 14, while precipitation in Sion is forecast well above seasonal norms next month and Alpine snowpack is well above average, which could boost inflows when snowmelt picks up in May. And French nuclear unavailability is forecast to drop by 4GW on the month to 15.6GW in May, well below the 25.4GW in May last year. By Adrien Seewald German April power generation GW Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Stakes look low in Washington’s Venezuela dilemma
Stakes look low in Washington’s Venezuela dilemma
Washington, 15 April (Argus) — The US administration's decision to temporarily lift oil sanctions against Venezuela in October last year relied on the premise that economic incentives would prompt Caracas to hold a competitive presidential election. But either the theory was wrong or the incentives were insufficient to encourage Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro to consider exiting the scene. The US wants Venezuela to allow credible opposition candidates to run in the latter's presidential elections on 28 July, and set this as a condition for extending sanctions relief beyond a looming 18 April deadline. But the Maduro government has prevented key opposition leader Maria Corina Machado from running. The main non-government affiliated candidate allowed to run in the election, governor of the oil-rich Zulia state Manuel Rosales, is viewed with scepticism in Washington. An election in which "only those opposition candidates with whom Maduro and his representatives feel comfortable" can participate will not be considered competitive enough for the US sanctions relief to continue, the US State Department says. Colombian president Gustavo Petro appeared to be mounting a last-ditch effort this week to mediate between Maduro and the opposition. Petro also wants to make it easier for Colombian oil firm Ecopetrol to expand business with its neighbor, including putative plans for gas imports from Venezuela. But doing so requires a massive change of US policy. "The US government looks a little more interested in alleviating sanctions than the sanctioned party," Caracas-based economist Tamara Herrera says. "Barring a grand gesture" by the Maduro government, the US is likely to reimpose sanctions, but perhaps grant specific carve-outs more freely, she says. Maduro's reneging on last year's accord with the opposition over the competitive election comes as no surprise to Washington-based critics of his government. "We've done everything we can to give economic inducement to the regime to behave differently," think-tank Center for Strategic and International Studies' Americas programme director Ryan Berg says, estimating the benefit to Caracas from sanctions relief at $6bn-10bn since October. "I just don't see that they've really given anything" in return. Leading US senators from both parties agree, calling on the White House this week to reimpose the sanctions after 18 April. Do the sanctioned crude shuffle But the six-month period during which Venezuela's state-run PdV was allowed to sell oil freely to any buyer and to invite foreign investment has hardly provided the economic benefits expected in October. India has emerged as a major new destination for Venezuelan crude, importing 152,000 b/d in March. The sanctions relief has not significantly affected US-bound Venezuelan volumes, which averaged 133,000 b/d last year. Even before the October waiver, Washington had allowed Chevron to lift oil from its joint venture with PdV, solely into the US. That exception for Chevron will remain in place. Undoing the US sanctions regime against Venezuela has provided unintended market incentives. Chinese imports of Venezuelan Merey, often labeled as Malaysian diluted bitumen, have been lower since October. Independent refiners in Shandong, which benefited from wide discounts on the sanctioned Venezuelan crude, cut back imports to just a fraction of pre-relief levels. By contrast, state-controlled PetroChina was able to resume imports. The possible reimposition of US sanctions is reflected in the widening Merey discount to Brent ( see chart ). Venezuela's rekindling of a border dispute with Guyana is also irking many countries that might come to its defence, and US elections in November could make the prospects of a US deal with Maduro even less likely. Hopes for a renaissance in oil or democracy in Venezuela seem ever further away. By Haik Gugarats Chinese imports of Venezuelan crude Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Business intelligence reports
Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.
Learn more