Russia passes Saudi Arabia as top China crude supplier
China's crude imports from Russia rose in April but deliveries from Saudi Arabia and Brazil fell sharply, detailed customs data show.
Imports of Russian crude hit 1.75mn b/d last month, up by 6.1pc from March and by 17.7pc from April last year.
Russian exporters shipped more sour Urals crude to China while keeping exports of other key grades steady. Offers for Urals were competitive with other sour grades in April as Riyadh and Moscow launched fierce price competition, generating a rise in buying interest.
China was the main destination for Urals in the first quarter, taking just over 4mn t or around 320,000 b/d. And exports of Urals are likely to rise further in May, with seaborne loadings of the grade from Baltic and Black Sea ports estimated at 2.13mn b/d in April, up by 371,500 b/d compared with the average for January-March. More than 700,000 b/d of Urals left Baltic Sea ports for Asia-Pacific in the first half of April, with almost all heading to China on 80,000-120,000t Aframax vessels.
Russia became the single-largest exporter to China in April, thanks to the rise in its shipments and a fall in deliveries from Saudi Arabia.
China took just 1.26mn b/d of Saudi crude last month, down by 26pc from March to an 11-month low. But deliveries are likely to rebound in May and June, with Saudi Arabia's total crude exports surging by 1.66mn b/d to 9.27mn b/d in April as Riyadh seized market share after the expiry of the Opec+ output restraint deal.
Asia-Pacific absorbed the majority of the increase, with eastbound Saudi shipments rising by 1.24mn b/d to a record 6.12mn b/d, supported by stronger Chinese demand.
China's crude imports from Brazil dropped below 600,000 b/d last month for the first time this year. China took delivery of 545,000 b/d of Brazilian crude in April, down by 28.6pc from March and by 36.3pc from April 2019, and well below average imports in January-March of 874,000 b/d.
China's imports from Iraq also fell in April, dropping by 26.3pc to 971,000 b/d from March's 1.32mn b/d. Deliveries from Iran more than doubled from a month earlier to 126,000 b/d in April, although this was lower by 84pc from a record high year earlier.
Imports from Malaysia were 384,000 b/d in April, up by 55pc from March and more than triple levels in April 2019. China's imports from Malaysia have risen strongly over the past year, despite no comparable increase in Malaysian output, suggesting blenders in the country are disguising the origins of crude from sanctions-hit suppliers such as Venezuela before shipping the cargoes on to China.
Imports from Venezuela were zero again in April for the seventh straight month, the customs figures show. China also took delivery of no US crude in April.
Angolan exports to China were 828,000 b/d, declines of 11.8pc from March and 23.8pc from April last year, as Chinese refiners instead opted for similarly priced Brazilian Lula crude over the west African Djeno grade.
China's total crude imports were 9.84mn b/d in April, up by 1.7pc from March but down by 7.5pc from April 2019, the customs data show. Imports fell from 10.47mn b/d in the first two months of this year, as the impact of the Covid-19 outbreak led to a decline in buying from the end of January and throughout February that hit deliveries in March and April.
Demand started to rebound in late March as China brought the outbreak under control, domestic oil product demand started to rise and crude prices fell. This is likely to support May imports, which Argus expects to rise back above 10mn b/d.
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La deuda de Pemex sobresale en el panorama electoral
La deuda de Pemex sobresale en el panorama electoral
Mexico City, 15 April (Argus) — La campaña presidencial de México termina en menos de dos meses, pero aunque ambas candidatas proponen una revolución verde en el sector de la energía, ninguna de ellas ha propuesto un plan viable para evitar la implosión financiera de la empresa estatal Pemex. Claudia Sheinbaum, candidata de continuidad para la política energética nacionalista del Presidente Andrés Manuel López Obrador, anunció el mes pasado su estrategia energética, comprometiéndose a aumentar la producción de petróleo y gas de Pemex, aumentar el rendimiento de las refinerías y la producción petroquímica, desarrollar una industria nacional de litio y buscar un nuevo enfoque en la generación de energía renovable. La antigua jefa de gobierno de la Ciudad de México no ha proporcionado detalles sobre ninguna de estas políticas, pero es difícil conciliar su compromiso con una ampliación de las energías renovables con un límite en la inversión del sector privado sin depender en gran medida del aumento de la financiación de la estatal de electricidad CFE. La política de Sheinbaum en materia de energías renovables es la única desviación de la agenda energética de López Obrador, aunque las agencias de calificación, los inversores y los analistas coinciden en que es probable que Pemex incurra en impago sin una amplia reforma estructural. Pemex tenía una deuda total de $106,100 millones a finales de 2023 y se enfrenta a $10,000 millones en vencimientos de deuda este año. El impulso del gobierno para aumentar el rendimiento de las refinerías ha generado pérdidas de miles de millones de dólares para Pemex. Solo en 2023, la división de refinación de Pemex reportó una pérdida de $4,400 millones, una mejora con respecto a una pérdida de $11,000 millones el año anterior. De 2019 a 2023, la división de refinación de la empresa registró más de $46,000 millones en pérdidas. López Obrador puso el rescate de Pemex y sus refinerías en el centro de su administración. Pero a pesar de no detener la espiral de deuda de la empresa, la disminución de la producción de crudo, el empeoramiento del récord de seguridad y el aumento de las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero, sus políticas han tenido un coste que Sheinbaum no ha querido refutar públicamente. En su lugar, se compromete a lanzar el proyecto de la refinería Olmeca de 340,000 b/d de la empresa, que ya tiene dos años de retraso y ha costado al menos el doble del presupuesto original de $8,000 millones, dinero que las agencias de calificación afirman que debería haberse dirigido al negocio principal de Pemex en la exploración y producción. El apoyo gubernamental a Pemex, por un total de más de $52,000 millones entre 2019 y 2023, ha sido incapaz de mover la aguja en sus métricas financieras u operativas, y ahora amenaza la calificación crediticia soberana de México. Sheinbaum ha evitado abordar públicamente la carga de la enorme deuda de Pemex, proponiendo únicamente "niveles de deuda aceptables en el sector de la energía". Pero dada la importancia de Pemex para el proyecto político del partido Morena, además los cientos de miles de puestos de trabajo que dependen de Pemex, no se puede permitir que la empresa incumpla. Por otro lado, la candidata de oposición Xóchitl Gálvez pide poner fin al "caos financiero" en Pemex, diversificar su negocio hacia iniciativas de bajas emisiones de carbono, políticas rigurosas de emisiones, el cierre de sus refinerías más contaminantes, un nuevo enfoque en renovables y una reapertura de la industria energética a la inversión del sector privado. Sin embargo, a pesar de su perspectiva más favorable para la inversión privada, Gálvez aún no ha ofrecido una solución detallada para la situación financiera de Pemex. Sus planes para Pemex pueden ser demasiado radicales para los votantes, especialmente dentro del importante sindicato de trabajadores del petróleo, que repudió rápidamente sus llamados el mes pasado para cerrar dos refinerías. Incluso si ganara, la oposición que representa podría tener dificultades para acordar un camino a seguir para Pemex. Si la próxima administración vuelve a abrir la puerta a la inversión del sector privado, el nuevo gobierno se enfrentará a un esfuerzo lento para reconstruir los reguladores de la energía que han sufrido de baja inversión en los últimos seis años. Pero será el tamaño de la posible victoria de Sheinbaum lo que determinará el futuro del sector de la energía mexicano. Una mayoría convincente podría permitirle aprobar las grandes reformas energéticas que eludieron a López Obrador y seguir limitando la participación del sector privado en el sector energético, justo cuando la inversión directa extranjera en México está en auge en otras industrias. Por Rebecca Conan Producción de crudo en México Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Stakes look low in Washington’s Venezuela dilemma
Stakes look low in Washington’s Venezuela dilemma
Washington, 15 April (Argus) — The US administration's decision to temporarily lift oil sanctions against Venezuela in October last year relied on the premise that economic incentives would prompt Caracas to hold a competitive presidential election. But either the theory was wrong or the incentives were insufficient to encourage Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro to consider exiting the scene. The US wants Venezuela to allow credible opposition candidates to run in the latter's presidential elections on 28 July, and set this as a condition for extending sanctions relief beyond a looming 18 April deadline. But the Maduro government has prevented key opposition leader Maria Corina Machado from running. The main non-government affiliated candidate allowed to run in the election, governor of the oil-rich Zulia state Manuel Rosales, is viewed with scepticism in Washington. An election in which "only those opposition candidates with whom Maduro and his representatives feel comfortable" can participate will not be considered competitive enough for the US sanctions relief to continue, the US State Department says. Colombian president Gustavo Petro appeared to be mounting a last-ditch effort this week to mediate between Maduro and the opposition. Petro also wants to make it easier for Colombian oil firm Ecopetrol to expand business with its neighbor, including putative plans for gas imports from Venezuela. But doing so requires a massive change of US policy. "The US government looks a little more interested in alleviating sanctions than the sanctioned party," Caracas-based economist Tamara Herrera says. "Barring a grand gesture" by the Maduro government, the US is likely to reimpose sanctions, but perhaps grant specific carve-outs more freely, she says. Maduro's reneging on last year's accord with the opposition over the competitive election comes as no surprise to Washington-based critics of his government. "We've done everything we can to give economic inducement to the regime to behave differently," think-tank Center for Strategic and International Studies' Americas programme director Ryan Berg says, estimating the benefit to Caracas from sanctions relief at $6bn-10bn since October. "I just don't see that they've really given anything" in return. Leading US senators from both parties agree, calling on the White House this week to reimpose the sanctions after 18 April. Do the sanctioned crude shuffle But the six-month period during which Venezuela's state-run PdV was allowed to sell oil freely to any buyer and to invite foreign investment has hardly provided the economic benefits expected in October. India has emerged as a major new destination for Venezuelan crude, importing 152,000 b/d in March. The sanctions relief has not significantly affected US-bound Venezuelan volumes, which averaged 133,000 b/d last year. Even before the October waiver, Washington had allowed Chevron to lift oil from its joint venture with PdV, solely into the US. That exception for Chevron will remain in place. Undoing the US sanctions regime against Venezuela has provided unintended market incentives. Chinese imports of Venezuelan Merey, often labeled as Malaysian diluted bitumen, have been lower since October. Independent refiners in Shandong, which benefited from wide discounts on the sanctioned Venezuelan crude, cut back imports to just a fraction of pre-relief levels. By contrast, state-controlled PetroChina was able to resume imports. The possible reimposition of US sanctions is reflected in the widening Merey discount to Brent ( see chart ). Venezuela's rekindling of a border dispute with Guyana is also irking many countries that might come to its defence, and US elections in November could make the prospects of a US deal with Maduro even less likely. Hopes for a renaissance in oil or democracy in Venezuela seem ever further away. By Haik Gugarats Chinese imports of Venezuelan crude Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Crude futures shrug off Middle East turmoil
Crude futures shrug off Middle East turmoil
Singapore, 15 April (Argus) — Crude oil futures were largely unmoved in early trading in Asia on 15 April, as the market watched for an indication of how Israel would respond to the weekend's unprecedented attack by Iran. Front-month June Brent crude futures rose by 0.7pc to a high of $91.05/bl soon after markets opened, but then fell back to trade 0.2pc lower at $90.26/bl at 10.40am Singapore time (02:40 GMT). May Nymex WTI was down by 0.3pc at $85.37/bl. The threat of an Iranian attack on Israel had sent prices higher last week. Iran fired hundreds of drones and missiles against Israel on the evening of 13 April, ushering in a new phase in a six-month conflict that is threatening regional escalation. Almost all were intercepted before they reached Israeli airspace, according to the Israel Defence Forces. Iran, the US and regional powers appear to want to avoid any further increase in hostilities. Tehran's foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said Iran considers its operation to have ended. And the US is urging Israel to claim victory for its defence, in an apparent effort to discourage Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government from feeling compelled to retaliate. Israel's response is unclear. The country's war cabinet is meeting to discuss its next steps. Regional shipping also continues to face the risk of disruption. On 13 April, Iranian naval vessels seized the Portuguese flagged, British-owned MSC Aries container ship transiting through the Gulf of Oman. By Kevin Foster Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
G7 leaders to meet over Iran's attack on Israel
G7 leaders to meet over Iran's attack on Israel
Dubai, 14 April (Argus) — Leaders of the G7 will meet today, 14 April, to co-ordinate a diplomatic response to Iran's overnight air attack on Israel, which ushered a new phase in a six-month conflict that is threatening regional escalation. G7 presidency Italy "has organized a conference at leaders' level for the afternoon of today," Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni said on X, formerly Twitter. US President Joe Biden has pledged a co-ordinated G7 diplomatic response and condemned the Iranian assault. Iran fired hundreds of drones and missiles against Israel on the evening of 13 April, according to the country's state-owned news agency Irna. Almost all were intercepted before they reached Israeli airspace and there were no fatalities reported by Israel. One civilian was injured and an air force base in southern Israel was lightly damaged, according to the Israel Defence Forces (IDF). The Iranian attack came in response to a suspected Israeli air strike on the vicinity of Iran's embassy compound in Damascus, Syria, on 1 April. Tehran's foreign minster Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said Iran considers this to be the end of its operation. But energy markets, which have been supported in recent weeks by a geopolitical risk premium, will face a week of uncertainty about whether Israel will retaliate. The front-month June Ice Brent contract was trading at $90.45/bl before markets closed for the weekend, and hit a more-than five month high of $92.18/bl on Friday, 12 April. Israeli officials said the attack was "a severe and dangerous escalation" from Tehran. Israel's war cabinet is meeting today to discuss a response. "We will build a regional coalition and exact the price from Iran in the fashion and timing that is right for us," said cabinet minister Benny Gantz. The US is urging Israel to claim victory for its defence, in an apparent effort to discourage Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government from feeling compelled to retaliate. While noting that Israel ultimately will make the decision as to how to respond, White House national security communications co-ordinator John Kirby, in a televised interview today, hailed what he called Israel's "incredible military achievement" in defending itself against the attack. Very little managed to penetrate the defensive shield, "and the damage was extraordinarily light," he said. The US military played a role in helping to defend against the attack, bringing down "several dozens of drones and missiles," Kirby said. UK prime minister Rishi Sunak said the Royal Air Force shot down "a number of Iranian attack drones". Israel's western allies are urging it to show restraint as they try to prevent a wider conflict in the Middle East, which could directly affect oil producers and send energy prices soaring. President Biden is especially keen to avoid such a scenario in an election year. By Bachar Halabi and David Ivanovich Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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