Biden win could alter Mexican energy detente
The US presidential election in November could lead to an abrupt change in Washington's recent hands-off approach to Mexican energy policy.
A win for Democratic challenger Joe Biden would push the US away from Mexico on key policy issues, as the former vice-president vows support for clean energy and action to combat rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
Mexican president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador shares his US counterpart Donald Trump's scepticism when it comes to climate change. Lopez Obrador's government has prioritised conventional fossil fuels in power generation, intentionally marginalising renewables, as he looks to restore the historic dominance of state-owned oil firm Pemex and power utility CFE in their respective sectors.
But a Biden victory could prompt Lopez Obrador to alter course. Biden is targeting net-zero GHG emissions by 2050, as part of a clean-energy revolution. The US would also recommit to the UN Paris agreement on climate change, which Trump had abandoned.
Biden has proposed a ban on all new upstream permits on federal land and offshore, although he says he will not prohibit use of fracking technology crucial for shale exploration on private land. Lopez Obrador has vowed to prevent any further fracking in Mexico, although the response from his officials in the energy sector has been more nuanced.
Biden has said he would base all international economic engagement in countries where climate change is being taken seriously, a former Americas adviser to Biden, Juan Gonzalez, says. If carried through, this would have significant implications for relations with Mexico in the energy sphere.
"We must make sure that when we are investing in the recovery of the region, we are investing in the technology of the future," Gonzalez argues. "It is not enough to go back to being commodity dependent. When you have a global energy transition under way [and] a Mexico that is dependent on fossil fuels, you need to help prepare these governments for future economic competition."
Trump during his presidency has sought to exert economic pressure on Mexico with regard to migration and security issues. Lopez Obrador's willingness to accommodate Trump on those issues, despite repeated racial slurs made by Trump against the Mexican population, has helped insulate Mexico City from US criticism on other policy matters.
Call for Trump card
The Trump administration has downplayed calls from US energy firms to intervene on their behalf as Lopez Obrador's government seeks to restore Pemex's primacy. "Companies were hoping Trump would mention changes to energy regulations to Lopez Obrador during their July meeting in Washington, but he did not," academic and former Mexican congressman Carlos Heredia says.
US firms, including ExxonMobil and Chevron, won eight upstream contracts in the three bidding rounds held following Mexico's historic 2014 energy reforms and have committed $8.69bn in approved production and exploration plans, according to data from Mexican oil regulator CNH.
Any attempt by Lopez Obrador's government to cancel contracts awarded under the reform, as proposed by elements of his Morena party, would test the arbitration provisions of the recently signed USMCA free trade agreement between the US, Mexico and Canada, a partner at Mexican law firm Von Wobeser y Sierra, Adrian Magallanes, says. "The USMCA is a treaty that was enacted," he says. "Unless the US decides to denounce the treaty, or Mexico does, the mechanisms will remain in place," irrespective of the outcome of November's ballot.
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Karoon cuts 2024 guidance on lower US output
Karoon cuts 2024 guidance on lower US output
Sydney, 19 April (Argus) — Australia-listed oil producer Karoon Energy has cut its production guidance for 2024 to reflect lower production from its stake in the Who Dat floating production system in the US' Gulf of Mexico. Who Dat's weaker well and facility performance has led to the lower guidance, with Karoon now expecting to produce 29,000-34,000 b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) in 2024, down from a previous 31,000-37,000 boe/d guidance. Karoon said it and joint-venture partner LLOG Exploration will continue to prioritise higher value oil production over gas for the remainder of the year. The firm's January-March output rose by 17pc against October-December 2023 . Who Dat's production on a net revenue interest (NRI) basis was 9,000 boe/d for January-March, with Karoon downgrading its forecast NRI production from 4mn-4.5mn boe in 2024 to 3-3.5mn boe. But output from Karoon's Bauna asset offshore Brazil was 15pc lower than the previous quarter because of continuing reliability problems with Bauna's floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel, the shut-in of the SPS-88 well for the full period and natural field decline. Production for January-March at Bauna was 24,000 b/d, down from 28,000 b/d the previous quarter. Karoon expects to resume production from the well during July-September following an intervention, assuming no delays in regulatory approval. Bauna's annual maintenance will take place next month with a three-week shutdown of the FPSO planned to boost reliability. By Tom Major Karoon Energy results Jan-Mar '24 Oct-Dec '23 Jan-Mar '23 y-o-y % ± q-o-q % ± Sales revenue ($mn) 197 209 144 37 -6 Production (b/d) 34,000 29,000 22,000 55 17 Sales volume (b/d) 30,000 28,000 22,000 36 7 Average prices ($/bl) Bauna oil price 76 83 73 4 -8 Who Dat sales gas ($/mn ft³) 2.95 2.22 n/a n/a 33 Who Dat oil, condensate, NGLs 78 73 n/a n/a 7 Source: Karoon Energy Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Australia’s Woodside records weaker Jan-Mar LNG output
Australia’s Woodside records weaker Jan-Mar LNG output
Sydney, 19 April (Argus) — Australian independent Woodside Energy's January-March output dropped against a year earlier and the previous quarter, as reliability fell at its 4.9mn t/yr Pluto LNG project offshore Western Australia. Woodside produced 494,000 b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) across its portfolio for January-March, 5pc below the 522,000 boe/d reported during October-December and 4pc below its 2023 full-year figure of 513,000 boe/d. Lower production at its Bass Strait, Pyrenees and Pluto assets was partially offset by increased production at the 140,000 b/d Mad Dog phase 2 oil field in the US Gulf of Mexico, which hit peak production of 130,000 b/d during the quarter. Reliability at Pluto was 94.6pc for the quarter because of an offshore trip and an onshore electrical fault. Woodside made a final investment decision (FID) on the Xena-3 well to support Pluto production during the quarter. The 16.9mn t/yr North West Shelf (NWS) LNG achieved 97pc reliability for the quarter with NWS' joint-venture partners taking a FID on the Lambert West field, which will support continuing production. Lower seasonal market demand and offshore maintenance activity saw production drop at the firm's Bass Strait fields, while production ended at the Gippsland basin joint venture's West Kingfish platform because of slowing oil output from Kingfish field. The Pyrenees floating production storage and offloading vessel began planned maintenance in early March and will return to crude production for April-June, Woodside said. Two 550,000 bl cargoes of Pyrenees crude loaded each quarter during 2023. Revenue dropped by 31pc to $2.97bn from $4.33bn a year earlier and 12pc from $3.36bn during October-December. Woodside's total average realised price dipped to $63/boe, 6pc down on the previous quarter's $67/boe and 26pc below the year-earlier figure of $85/boe. Woodside's average realised price for LNG produced was $10.40/mn Btu or 10pc down on the previous quarter's $11.50/mn Btu. The firm is more heavily exposed to spot prices and gas hub pricing than fellow domestic LNG producer Australian independent Santos, with about 30pc of Woodside's equity-produced LNG sold at these spot prices. By Tom Major Woodside LNG production (mn boe) NWS Pluto Wheatstone* Total Jan-Mar '24 8.2 11.8 2.4 22.3 Oct-Dec '23 7.8 12.4 2.5 22.7 Jan-Mar '23 9.7 12.2 2.5 24.3 2023 32.8 45.6 10.2 88.6 2022 29.7 46.2 9.2 85.1 y-o-y % ± -15 -3 -4 -8 q-o-q % ± 5 -5 -4 -2 Source: Woodside *Woodside controls a 13pc interest in Wheatstone LNG Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Oil firm ReconAfrica agrees to class action settlement
Oil firm ReconAfrica agrees to class action settlement
Cape Town, 18 April (Argus) — Africa-focused, Canada-based upstream firm ReconAfrica has agreed to pay $10.8mn in total to eligible shareholders to settle class action lawsuits lodged in different jurisdictions over allegations that the company made misleading statements. The company will pay $7.05mn to investors who bought its shares on the US over-the-counter (OTC) markets and $3.7mn to shareholders who bought securities in the firm on Canada's TSX Venture Exchange and the Frankfurt Stock Exchange within specified class periods. In Canada, parties reached the proposed settlement after a full-day mediation in October 2023, without any admission of liability by ReconAfrica. A hearing has been scheduled on 20 June for the British Columbia Supreme Court to approve the settlement. The plaintiffs allege that between May 2020 and September 2021, ReconAfrica released misleading statements, including its plans to undertake hydraulic fracturing of "unconventional" resources and "shale" deposits within Namibia. The firm failed to disclose that Namibia has never before allowed fracking. The plaintiffs further claim that ReconAfrica did not disclose data from its test wells that revealed poor prospects for achieving commercially viable oil and gas production. The company also stands accused of undertaking unlicensed drilling and illegal water usage, as well as other environmental and human rights violations. It denies all these allegations. ReconAfrica has a current market capitalisation of C$204.7mn. Earlier this month, it raised C$17.25mn in a public share offering. The firm plans to undertake a multi-well drilling campaign this year, with the first well in Namibia's Damara Fold Belt scheduled for June. The company controls the entire Kavango sedimentary basin, which spans over 300km from the northeast of Namibia to northwest Botswana. Early estimates claimed the basin could hold as much as 31bn bl of oil, of which 22.3bn bl are in Namibia and 8.7bn bl in Botswana. ReconAfrica has a 90pc stake in the PEL 73 licence, which extends 25,000km² across northeast Namibia. The remaining 10pc is held by Namibian state-run company Namcor. The Kavango basin includes part of the ecologically sensitive Okavango Delta, a Unesco World Heritage site. The Okavango watershed consists of the Okavango river and a network of shallow, interlinked aquifers, which is a vital water source for more than a million people. The delta also serves as a habitat and migration path for many endangered animal species. Last year, ReconAfrica received environmental approval to drill 12 more wells in the Kavango. The firm recently completed a technical review of its entire exploration inventory in Namibia and now expects to find a mix of oil and gas. ReconAfrica announced an updated prospective resource estimate for Damara last month, indicating an unrisked 15.4bn bl of undiscovered oil initially-in-place. This compares with a previous estimate that pointed only to prospective natural gas resources amounting to 22.4 trillion ft³. The change "is the result of in-depth analyses of all geochemical data, including cores, cuttings, mud logs, seeps and additional basin modelling studies," ReconAfrica said. The firm has made the updated estimates available to potential joint venture partners and expects to complete this month a farm-out process that it started in December 2023. By Elaine Mills Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Uganda aims for net zero energy sector by 2062
Uganda aims for net zero energy sector by 2062
Kampala, 18 April (Argus) — Uganda has brought forward its target for net zero carbon emissions from its energy sector by three years, to 2062, energy ministry permanent secretary Irene Batebe told an oil and gas conference in Kampala. This new deadline is still lagging some way behind a 2050 "net zero operations" target pledged by 40 oil and gas firms , including African state-owned ones such as Libya's NOC and Sudan's Nilepet, at the UN Cop 28 climate summit. Signatories to the Cop 28 charter also pledged "near-zero upstream methane emissions" by 2030. Uganda's CO2 emissions from fuel combustion were 5.7mn t in 2021, according to most recent IEA data, but this will probably increase with the development of a 230,000 b/d crude project in its western Lake Albert region. The crude project had been scheduled to begin production in late 2025 — although the head of TotalEnergies' Ugandan operations recently said the company may miss this long-standing target. Batebe said the Ugandan government has plans to increase hydroelectricity capacity to around 52GW by 2050, to increase use of solar wind and nuclear power, and has a budget of $8bn by 2030 to finance these. The IEA estimates hydroelectricity accounts for around 90pc of Uganda's generating capacity. But this installed capacity is only around 1.5GW currently. The country's nuclear ambitions remain at the planning stage, and biomass — wood and charcoal — dominates energy consumption. "We want to phase out use of coal, but… countries that produced oil and gas should get out first and we shall follow," she said. "We cannot afford to remain poor. We shall produce our oil and gas responsibly, use LPG from the [planned] refinery and then connect more than the current 57pc of our population to electricity with affordability to use it for cooking and other uses other than lighting then meet our emissions targets." Batebe said the world's longest heated crude export pipeline, which will connect its oil fields with to the port of Tanga on Tanzania's Indian Ocean coast, will be insulated to "three layers" to limit emissions. TotalEnergies' Ugandan general manager Philippe Groueix said the two Lake Albert projects, Tilenga and Kingfisher, are designed to produce crude at 13kg of CO2/bl, far below the world average of 33 kg/bl. TotalEnergies is developing the 190,000 b/d Tilenga field and and Chinese state-controlled CNOOC the 40,000 b/d Kingfisher. By Mercy Matsiko Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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