Latest market news

USTR again praises China trade deal progress

  • Market: Crude oil, Natural gas
  • 27/10/20

US-China relations are worsening fast on nearly every front — but US trade officials strike a dissonant chord by heaping praise on China for implementing an interim trade deal signed earlier this year.

That praise is all the more surprising because China's imports from the US so far this year have fallen short of ambitious targets set by the so-called "phase one" trade agreement. The deal committed China to increasing imports from the US by $200bn in 2020-21 relative to a 2017 baseline, including a total energy imports target for China of around $27bn in 2020 and another $42bn in 2021.

But total imports from the US to China in January-September ran below 2017 levels and amounted to just 53pc of targets set by the phase one deal, according to an analysis released today by Washington think tank Peterson Institute for International Economics.

US trade officials may have tactical and political reasons for insisting the trade deal is working. The US Trade Representative's office (USTR) is hoping to build on it with a follow-up deal if US president Donald Trump is re-elected, cementing in place an arrangement that will gradually reduce China's still-substantial trade surplus in trade with the US.

The USTR is also keen to highlight progress in one particular area — agriculture — because a trade war started by Trump in 2018 temporarily cut off Chinese markets for exporters of US farm products. To date, China has met about 71pc of its 2020 target under the phase one agreement, USTR and US Department of Agriculture said in a fact sheet released on 23 October.

In dollar terms, China's agricultural imports from the US amount to the 2017 levels, Peterson Institute senior fellow Chad Bown says. "While agriculture gets the bulk of the president's attention and (USTR chief Robert) Lighthizer's attention in terms of purchase commitments, it only makes up 22pc of the goods covered in the deal," Bown says.

Data compiled by the Peterson Institute show China lagging behind on every other purchase category. "Doing worst of all is the energy," Bown says. Cumulative Chinese energy imports from the US in January-September, in dollar terms, were roughly one third of required amounts, according to the institute's analysis.

Volumes of energy trade tell a different story, highlighting one of the flaws in the agreement — setting the target purchase amounts in dollar terms, rather than volume. US crude exports to China more than doubled to 367,000 b/d in January-August. But a decline in oil prices this year means China is falling short of the energy import target.

China's crude imports from the US rose to a record high of 952,000 b/d in September. China's purchases of US crude remained strong in recent months, sometimes despite uncompetitive economics — suggesting that Beijing has been leaning on state-owned firms to keep importing from the US. Whether that trend will continue if Trump loses re-election remains to be seen.

Either outcome of the US election promises uncertainty on the future of trade relations. Trump and Democratic candidate Joe Biden at their final debate last week accused each other of not being tough enough on China. "What I would make China do is play by the international rules, not like (Trump) has done — he has caused the deficit of the China to go up, not down," Biden said.

Trump's administration, meanwhile, is accelerating efforts to decouple the two economies by introducing investment barriers and targeting Chinese technology firms with sanctions.


Sharelinkedin-sharetwitter-sharefacebook-shareemail-share

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News
19/09/24

Western Australia to allow some onshore gas exports

Western Australia to allow some onshore gas exports

Darwin, 19 September (Argus) — Western Australia's (WA) state government will allow onshore developers of gas fields to export about 20pc of their output as LNG during a five-year window, in response to a growing failure to bring on new supplies for the domestic market. WA previously banned onshore gas exports, except in the case of Australian independent Beach Energy's 250 TJ/d (6.7mn m³/d) Waitsia stage 2 project . Beach may be required to share its infrastructure with fellow Perth basin firms, the WA government said, to expedite market access for new projects. Australian mining firm Mineral Resources, which has argued for permission to export 85pc of the gas from its Lockyer project as LNG and fellow WA-based firm Strike Energy may benefit from the changes, as both hold significant reserves in the Perth basin. The changes apply to new onshore developments or existing projects seeking to expand production. Developers are required to reserve 80pc of gas produced for WA, with this rising to 100pc from 2031 onwards. The policy shift follows dire outlooks for WA's gas supplies as the state attempts to wean itself off coal-fired power generation. It currently contributes about a third of the electricity into the state's largest power grid. A parliamentary report last month warned WA cannot rely on sporadic appeals for more gas to meet demand. "These policy changes are sensible responses that balance the need for Western Australia to secure its energy future while encouraging onshore producers to bring on more gas supply as and when it is needed," mines and petroleum Minister David Michael said on 19 September. The 15pc reservation for offshore LNG projects will continue, while WA has promised more transparency on the policy with the publication of a yearly WA Domestic Gas Statement to reveal how producers are meeting obligations, with a review to take place after two years. An interim parliamentary report tabled earlier this year showed about 8pc of the state's offshore gas output has reached WA consumers since 2006, representing just over half the required volumes. Following public criticism of LNG producers' contributions, Australian independent Woodside Energy has since pledged an extra 32PJ (854mn m³) of domestic supplies by the end of 2025 . WA will also seek to strengthen laws designed to prevent companies banking prospective onshore oil and gas tenements, with a review into the "use it or lose it" policy to be led by the state's energy department. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Find out more
News

US Fed cuts rate by half point, signals more: Update


18/09/24
News
18/09/24

US Fed cuts rate by half point, signals more: Update

Adds chairman Powell comments, economic projections. Houston, 18 September (Argus) — The US Federal Reserve cut its target interest rate by 50 basis points today, the first rate cut since 2020, with policymakers signaling they expect to make another half-point worth of cuts by the end of 2024. The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the federal funds rate to 4.75-5pc from the prior range of 5.25-5.5pc, which was a 23-year high. The Fed had kept the target rate unchanged since July 2023 after hiking it for more than a year in the most intense rate-tightening campaign in four decades to quash inflation, which peaked at 9.1pc in mid-2022. "The committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2pc, and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance," the FOMC said in its statement after the two-day meeting. "Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low." In their latest economic projections, the Fed board and policymakers expect the target rate range will end 2024 near a midpoint of 4.4pc compared with an end of year midpoint of 5.1pc projected in June, which implies further cuts amounting to 50 basis points by the end of 2024. Policymakers also penciled in another 100 basis points of cuts over the course of 2025. "We're recalibrating policy down over time to a more neutral level and we're moving at the pace that we think is appropriate given developments in the economy," Fed chair Jerome Powell told a press conference after the meeting. "The economy can develop in a way that will cause us to go faster or slower. The US economy is in a good place and our decision today is designed to keep it there." The Fed's economic projections see core Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation — the Fed's favorite measure of inflation — ending 2024 at a median rate of 2.6pc, down from a prior forecast of 2.8pc. Policymakers see core PCE inflation falling to a median of 2.2pc by the end of next year. The outlook for the unemployment rate for the end of 2024 climbed to 4.4pc from 4pc penciled in at the June meeting. Policymakers expect gross domestic product (GDP) growth to end 2024 at an annual 2pc, slightly down from a prior 2.1pc projection. The latest policy meeting comes as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased to an annual 2.5pc in August , down from 2.9pc in July, the Labor Department reported on 11 September. Inflation had ticked up to 3.5pc in March from 3.1pc in January, prompting the Fed to turn more cautious about beginning its rate cuts. US job growth has recently slowed sharply, falling to an average 116,000 in the three months through August from 211,000 for the prior three months. The jobless rate rose to 4.3pc in July, the highest in three years, before edging down to 4.2pc in August. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Volatile energy prices risk the transition: IEF


18/09/24
News
18/09/24

Volatile energy prices risk the transition: IEF

Houston, 18 September (Argus) — High or volatile energy prices risk undermining emissions reductions efforts, International Energy Forum (IEF) secretary-general Joseph McMonigle said today at the Gastech conference in Houston, Texas. "If the public starts to connect high prices and volatility to the energy transition, we're in big trouble and we risk losing public support for the transition and climate policy," he said. McMonigle made his comments on a panel with several energy ministers, who discussed the issues of balancing energy security concerns with transitioning to cleaner fuel sources for electricity. When asked what he would consider a "call to action" for the global energy sector, McMonigle suggested investments in emerging technologies. "I think to allow trading of carbon credits is really important to accelerate the transition," he said. "Also, to provide financing for CCS (carbon capture and storage), which I think is one of the technologies that does not have enough investment behind it." By David Haydon Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Citgo auction result delayed amid last-minute motions


18/09/24
News
18/09/24

Citgo auction result delayed amid last-minute motions

Houston, 18 September (Argus) — The US court-appointed special master overseeing the auction of US refiner Citgo plans to object to a last-minute motion from the Venezuelan government to delay the sale process by four months. The Republic of Venezuela and state-owned oil company PdV filed a motion on Tuesday seeking a four-month pause in the sale of its refining subsidiary Citgo, which is being auctioned off to satisfy debts owed by PdV. Special master Robert Pincus said in a court filing today that he intends to object to Venezuela's motion for a pause. The last-minute motion from Venezuela comes days after the US District Court for the District of Delaware was expected to announce results of the winning bidder. The court asked for a second extension to the auction process in August, delaying announcing a successful bidder to on or about 16 September with a sale hearing on 7 November. But Pincus is now dealing with last-minute legal challenges filed last week outside of the Delaware courts by so-called "alter ego" claimants seeking to "circumvent" the Delaware court's sales process and "jump the line" for enforcing claims against PdV, the special master said in a filing last week. Bidders for Citgo's 804,000 b/d of refining capacity, terminals, retail fuel stations and other plants expect the assets to be sold free and clear of future claims by PdV creditors. Unresolved legal liabilities could lower the value bidders are willing to pay for Citgo, decreasing the pool of money available to those owed by PdV. By Nathan Risser Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

US seeks to purchase 6mn bl for SPR


18/09/24
News
18/09/24

US seeks to purchase 6mn bl for SPR

Washington, 18 September (Argus) — President Joe Biden's administration is trying to purchase 6mn bl of sour crude for delivery to the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) as part of a plan to issue solicitations when prices are "favorable for taxpayers." The US Department of Energy (DOE) today released a solicitation to purchase up to 6mn bl of sour crude for delivery in February-May to the SPR's Bayou Choctaw site in Louisiana. If the purchase is successful, it would be the largest single purchase since the Biden administration launched its crude purchase program in early 2023. The solicitation offers a chance for the administration to buy crude for the SPR at a lower price than earlier purchases. Nymex WTI crude futures for delivery in February settled at $68.41/bl on Tuesday. The lowest-priced crude purchase under Biden was a 1.7mn purchase at a price of $72/bl in June 2023, and the average purchase price is about $76/bl. Bids for the solicitation are due by noon ET on 25 September. DOE has already purchased more than 50mn bl of sour crude for the SPR, of which 30mn bl have already been delivered. On 9 September, DOE said it purchased 3.42mn bl of sour crude for the SPR's Bryan Mound storage site at a price of $72.46/bl from the trading firm Macquarie Commodities Trading. The crude will be delivered in January-March, adding to an earlier purchase of nearly 2.5mn bl that will be delivered to the Bryan Mound site over the same time frame. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Generic Hero Banner

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more