Iraq feeling the strain under Opec+ deal
Iraq has long been forced to juggle a heavy reliance on oil revenues to meet domestic funding requirements alongside pressure from the Opec+ alliance to comply with crude production quotas. But the strain has started to show ahead of next week's Opec and Opec+ ministerial meetings.
"We have reached the limit of our ability and willingness to accept a policy of one-size-fits-all," Iraq's finance minister and deputy prime minister Ali Allawi said at a Chatham House Iraq conference this week. "It has to be more nuanced and it has to be related to the per-capita income of people, the presence of sovereign wealth funds, none of which we have."
Under the current Opec+ agreement, Iraq was required to cut output by over 1mn b/d in May-July and by 849,000 b/d in August-December from an October 2018 baseline of 4.65mn b/d. Iraq produced an average 102,000 b/d above its quotas in May-October and now needs to produce 305,000 b/d below its November-December ceilings to compensate.
Iraq has long blamed the semi-autonomous Kurdish region in the north of the country for its failure to adhere to its Opec+ production ceiling, but Baghdad can only hide behind its dispute with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) for so long. Iraq produced 3.85mn b/d in October, slightly above quota and 140,000 b/d higher than in September, Argus estimates show, but the month-on-month rise came mostly from federal fields, with KRG production largely stable at around 450,000 b/d.
Opec+ quotas and the oil price crash have been tough on Iraq's cash-strapped federal government. The oil revenues it depends on have fallen by almost 50pc on the year to an average of $3.4bn/month in 2020, insufficient to cover the cost of salaries and pensions. "While in 2005, 20pc of oil revenues were spent on salaries, this year the cost of salaries will be 120pc of oil revenues," Allawi said earlier this month.
Iraq has taken some steps to boost cash flow. Its parliament passed an emergency spending bill earlier this month to borrow $10bn from local and international markets for the remainder of 2020 — albeit well below the cabinet's request for $35bn. And earlier this week, Iraq's state-owned marketing firm Somo offered a major five-year crude term deal, with one year available under a prepayment option. But these measures fall short of the structural changes required to put the country on a firmer financial footing. "The choice facing Iraq as a whole… is either reform or collapse," KRG deputy prime minister Qubad Talabani told the Chatham House conference.
Iraq unveiled an economic reform plan last month aimed at tackling the financial crisis and diversifying its reliance on oil revenues. But diversification will take time. And under the Opec+ deal, Iraq still faces the prospect of capped output until early 2022. Opec+ members will decide next week whether to proceed with a scheduled 2mn b/d output increase in January or roll over existing quotas into next year. Sources tell Argus that Opec+ is leaning towards delaying the increase in output, most likely by three months. Furthermore, some Iraqi oil officials expect the compensation mechanism, which obliges quota-busters to make up for past overproduction with additional cuts, to be extended beyond this year.
Towing the line
An extension of existing cuts and the compensation scheme would be a blow to Iraq's finances. But protest is unlikely. Although the ministry of finance is starting to articulate its position, Allawi made it clear that the oil ministry "sets the markers". He voiced similar concerns earlier this year with no action taken.
State news agency reports in September that Iraq was seeking an exemption from production cuts in January-March 2021 were later met with a denial from the oil ministry, alongside a similar statement from Opec kingpin Saudi Arabia, which has shown investment interest in Iraq, which the country sorely needs.
Iraq has spent the last few years trying to shake off the troublemaker image it earned in 2016 when it pushed for an exemption from production restraints on the basis of decades of war. Oil minister Ihsan Ismael continues to reiterate Iraq's commitment to the Opec+ deal despite its shaky compliance record, and there is little sign of a change in approach.
Related news posts
Small private Libyan firm exports oil through blockade
Small private Libyan firm exports oil through blockade
London, 19 September (Argus) — A small Libyan private firm appears to have been granted an exemption from an oil blockade, which has more than halved the country's exports. Arkenu Oil, which describes itself as a private oil and gas development and production firm, is scheduled to export 1mn bl of Sarir and Mesla crude from Marsa el-Hariga to Italy's Trieste on the Maran Poseidon, according to an official document seen by Argus . The tanker has been chartered by Turkish trader BGN and is currently loading its cargo. This is the first Arkenu shipment set to be exported since the country's eastern-based administration ordered a blockade on oil fields and terminals on 26 August in response to an attempt by its rival administration in the west to replace the central bank governor. It is also Arkenu's third known shipment since July. Arkenu exported a 1mn bl cargo on the Zeus on 10 July and another 1mn barrel cargo on the Yasa Polaris on 16 August, according to official documents and ship-tracking data. These were also Sarir and Mesla grade. Arkenu's exports are significant given that crude sales have historically been the preserve of NOC and a handful of international oil firms that hold stakes in the country's upstream such as Eni, TotalEnergies and OMV. Arkenu, which is based in the eastern city of Benghazi, is supposedly able to export its own crude based on an agreement with NOC which allocates it an unspecified share of production from its subsidiary Agoco's Sarir and Mesla fields in return for carrying out work to boost output at the sites. But there remain questions related to the legality of the deal, the nature of the work Arkenu is supposed to be carrying out and the company's technical capabilities. The three known Arkenu cargoes are worth around $240mn at prevailing market rates, Argus estimates. There has been no increase to Agoco's production capacity since the Arkenu deal was struck, one Libyan oil industry source said. Sarir and Mesla accounted for most of Agoco's roughly 280,000 b/d output in 2023. Arkenu and NOC have yet to reply to a request for comment. "The Haftar family is deliberately and selectively allowing crude exports that generate dollars outside the Libyan state, and they are doing so within the context of a blockade they imposed," said Jalel Harchaoui, a Libya specialist at the UK's Royal United Services Institute. "While the Libyan state struggles to figure out how to import food and medicine next month owing to the central bank crisis, the Haftars' strange oil blockade permits crude exports that profit a private Libyan entity," Harchaoui added. The leadership crisis at the central bank has degraded Libya's ability to carry out international financial transactions. "The only beneficiary from these Mesla and Sarir sales is an unknown private Libyan company with an account in Switzerland and the UAE, with zero dollars being deposited in the state," the oil industry source added. General Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army (LNA) controls the country's east and southwest and is the real force behind the blockade. Haftar is understood to be allowing some exports to continue as long as these revenues do not reach the central bank in Tripoli, which is controlled by the rival administration in the west. Libya's crude exports have averaged 410,000 b/d so far this month, according to Kpler. While this is well below pre-blockade levels of around 1mn b/d, it is well above levels seen in some past blockades. Rising exports in recent days suggests Libya's total crude production has picked up from an earlier Argus estimate of around 300,000 b/d to possibly around 500,000 b/d. Libya was producing 1mn b/d before the blockade. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Citgo auction result delayed amid last-minute motions
Citgo auction result delayed amid last-minute motions
Houston, 18 September (Argus) — The US court-appointed special master overseeing the auction of US refiner Citgo plans to object to a last-minute motion from the Venezuelan government to delay the sale process by four months. The Republic of Venezuela and state-owned oil company PdV filed a motion on Tuesday seeking a four-month pause in the sale of its refining subsidiary Citgo, which is being auctioned off to satisfy debts owed by PdV. Special master Robert Pincus said in a court filing today that he intends to object to Venezuela's motion for a pause. The last-minute motion from Venezuela comes days after the US District Court for the District of Delaware was expected to announce results of the winning bidder. The court asked for a second extension to the auction process in August, delaying announcing a successful bidder to on or about 16 September with a sale hearing on 7 November. But Pincus is now dealing with last-minute legal challenges filed last week outside of the Delaware courts by so-called "alter ego" claimants seeking to "circumvent" the Delaware court's sales process and "jump the line" for enforcing claims against PdV, the special master said in a filing last week. Bidders for Citgo's 804,000 b/d of refining capacity, terminals, retail fuel stations and other plants expect the assets to be sold free and clear of future claims by PdV creditors. Unresolved legal liabilities could lower the value bidders are willing to pay for Citgo, decreasing the pool of money available to those owed by PdV. By Nathan Risser Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US seeks to purchase 6mn bl for SPR
US seeks to purchase 6mn bl for SPR
Washington, 18 September (Argus) — President Joe Biden's administration is trying to purchase 6mn bl of sour crude for delivery to the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) as part of a plan to issue solicitations when prices are "favorable for taxpayers." The US Department of Energy (DOE) today released a solicitation to purchase up to 6mn bl of sour crude for delivery in February-May to the SPR's Bayou Choctaw site in Louisiana. If the purchase is successful, it would be the largest single purchase since the Biden administration launched its crude purchase program in early 2023. The solicitation offers a chance for the administration to buy crude for the SPR at a lower price than earlier purchases. Nymex WTI crude futures for delivery in February settled at $68.41/bl on Tuesday. The lowest-priced crude purchase under Biden was a 1.7mn purchase at a price of $72/bl in June 2023, and the average purchase price is about $76/bl. Bids for the solicitation are due by noon ET on 25 September. DOE has already purchased more than 50mn bl of sour crude for the SPR, of which 30mn bl have already been delivered. On 9 September, DOE said it purchased 3.42mn bl of sour crude for the SPR's Bryan Mound storage site at a price of $72.46/bl from the trading firm Macquarie Commodities Trading. The crude will be delivered in January-March, adding to an earlier purchase of nearly 2.5mn bl that will be delivered to the Bryan Mound site over the same time frame. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
TMX is a fossil fuel subsidy of at least C$8.7bn: IISD
TMX is a fossil fuel subsidy of at least C$8.7bn: IISD
Calgary, 18 September (Argus) — Canada's newest crude pipeline to the country's west coast amounts to a fossil fuel subsidy of at least C$8.7bn ($6.4bn), a research and policy think-tank said. The federal government is unlikely to recover its C$34bn investment to construct the 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) connecting oil producers in Alberta to the Pacific coast, qualifying the project as a major subsidy for the fossil fuel industry, according to the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) on Wednesday. This runs contrary to the government's policy to eliminate direct support for the oil and gas sector , a goal Justin Trudeau's Liberals said was achieved in 2023. The government was the first G20 country to hit this milestone, following a 2009 commitment by the group to reach the goal by 2025. The subsidy as it relates to TMX could be as high as C$18.7bn, the Canadian non-profit said, but noted the entire amount could still be recovered by increasing tolls and/or implementing a levy. This levy could be against either all producers, or all shippers, of crude in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB), whether they use TMX or not, the IISD suggested. About 90pc of Canada's crude production comes from western Canada, with much of that derived from Alberta's oil sands region. "A levy in the range of C$1-2/bl . . . over a 10-year period would be sufficient to recover the entire cost of the subsidy and the loss to the Canadian taxpayer," according to the IISD. Alternatively, fixed tolls on TMX would need to be more than doubled to C$24.53/bl from C$11.37/bl to recover all capital costs for the line that went into service on 1 May this year, according to IISD's figures. Variable tolls would be added to this. The terms in the original contracts signed between shippers and then-owner Kinder Morgan were no longer appropriate as they did not reflect the rising risks of the project, said the IISD. Kinder Morgan suspended the project in 2018, which led to the Canadian government buying both the expansion project and the original 300,000 b/d Trans Mountain line from US midstream company that same year. The federal government has maintained its plan to sell the pipeline once operational, but the final tolls are yet to be determined. Whether the operator or shippers will bear the brunt of the massive cost overruns is also still unknown. Tolls, representing cash flows for any prospective buyer, will help dictate the price that the expanded Trans Mountain system will fetch. The IISD suggests a sale price is likely to be between C$17.6bn-26.6bn, resulting in a net loss to the government of between C$8.9bn-18bn assuming its cost of investment climbs to nearly C$36bn before a sale is reached. But despite warnings by opponents it would go underused, TMX has been as advertised, opening a new frontier for oil sands operators and disrupting trade flows throughout the Pacific Rim. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Business intelligence reports
Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.
Learn more