<article><p class="lead">Opec has left its key forecasts for this year unchanged based on its expectations of renewed economic growth, with the near-term outlook clouded by the Covid-19 pandemic.</p><p>"While a strong global economic recovery in 2021 remains very likely, the depth and magnitude of this year's rebound remains uncertain," Opec said in its latest <i>Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR)</i>. It kept its global economic growth forecast unchanged this year at 4.4pc from 2020, expecting the recovery to pick up towards the end of the second quarter as rapid-testing facilities and vaccines become more widely available.</p><p>But, the rise in Covid-19 infections and a slow start to vaccination programmes are tempering the recovery in the first quarter of the year, it said. China is the latest country to <a href="https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2176828">issue strict travel warnings</a> as a result of new virus variants that have emerged in certain parts of the world.</p><p>"Further insights in the coming weeks will help create a better understanding of the global economy's near-term path, and the forecast will be thoroughly reviewed once more in the coming month," Opec said.</p><p>Saudi Arabia's oil minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman described his country's voluntary production cut of 1mn b/d for <a href="https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2174262">February and March</a> as a pre-emptive move in case the market deteriorates. Opec secretary-general Mohammed Barkindo <a href="https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2176697">said yesterday</a> that the move will help Opec to "navigate through this season of low demand in the first quarter."</p><p>Opec kept its global oil demand forecast for 2021 unchanged at 95.9mn b/d, a rise of 5.9mn b/d on the year. Its forecast for the call on Opec members' crude remains at 27.2mn b/d, up by around 5mn b/d from 2020. And it again forecasts non-Opec liquids production to grow by 850,000 b/d this year, to 63.53mn b/d.</p><p>Market conditions for US shale have improved into "a range where output is likely to recover at a higher-than-expected rate in the second half of 2021," Opec said, as it revised higher its US liquids supply forecast for 2021 by 70,000 b/d to 370,000 b/d. This is offset by a lower supply forecast for Russia.</p><p>Opec crude production averaged 25.36mn b/d in December, up by 278,000 b/d from November, according to an average of secondary sources including <i>Argus</i>.</p><p>Citing preliminary data, Opec said OECD commercial stocks stood at 3.1bn bl in November, down by 24.5mn b/d from the previous month and 205mn bl above the latest five-year average.</p><p class="bylines">By Rowena Edwards</p></article>
