‘More stable’ EU ETS prices under lower MSR rate
Lowering the intake rate of the EU emissions trading system's (ETS) market stability reserve (MSR) as planned in the coming years will lead to less volatility in the carbon market than if the current rate is retained under higher emission cut scenarios, according to a report published this week.
The MSR tackles oversupply in the carbon market by removing 24pc of excess permits from circulation each year, an intake rate that under current plans will fall to 12pc from 2024. The rate is one of the aspects of the mechanism under consideration as part of a scheduled review of the MSR by the European Commission this year.
Modelling for a European Roundtable on Climate Change and Sustainable Transition (ERCST) report has found that under a "likely" scenario of a 2030 emissions cut target of 63pc for EU ETS-covered sectors, a 12pc MSR intake rate applied from 2024 onwards "guarantees a more stable price environment", as it avoids price spikes.
Maintaining a 24pc absorption rate past this point "would lead instead to price instability without significant additional benefits in terms of emission reductions", the report concludes.
"EU industry would likely better cope with a smooth upward carbon price' trajectory over the trading phase rather than a bumpy one," the report emphasises, which is particularly significant as decarbonisation efforts begin to shift from the power sector to industry.
A 24pc rate could however be useful in the case of a 55pc 2030 emissions cut target for EU ETS sectors, the report says, as it would help to avoid a collapse in carbon prices in the second half of this decade.
Increased flexibility
ERCST's report finds that a more flexibile MSR is needed to ensure the mechanism copes with changes in the market over the coming years.
This is specifically a shift in hedging patterns from the power sector to industry, potential larger holdings of allowances by speculative investors, and the effect of overlapping EU climate policies that will "likely further affect the MSR intakes and ultimately the price impact of the MSR".
This flexibility could come in the form of either more frequent reviews, which are currently scheduled to take place once every five years, or more dynamic parameters, such as varying intake rates at different surplus thresholds.
Reacting to the presentation of the report, Italian utility Enel's Daniele Agostini called dynamic parameters a "very good idea".
But both he and German investment bank Commerzbank's Ingo Ramming warned against increasing the frequency of MSR reviews, emphasising the importance of transparency and predictability in regulatory measures.
Agostini also urged the retention of the 24pc intake rate beyond 2023 to remove the surplus of allowances in the market.
While Brussels-based environmental think-tank Carbon Market Watch's Sam van den Plas argued that the rate should be increased to 36pc "sooner rather than later" to ensure the strength of the mechanism, particularly in the context of a rapidly decarbonising power sector.
He pointed to a report published by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research this week, which suggests Europe could almost completely phase out coal-fired power by 2030, under a scenario of 63pc emission cuts for EU ETS sectors.
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UN carbon market enshrines appeal, grievance processes
UN carbon market enshrines appeal, grievance processes
Berlin, 3 May (Argus) — The much-debated procedure for appeal and grievance processes for people negatively affected by carbon mitigation activities was finally passed this week by the regulator of the future UN carbon market. The supervisory body of the Paris agreement crediting mechanism, under Article 6.4 of the Paris climate agreement, called the appeal and grievance procedure a "crucial step towards developing a new international carbon market that sets the benchmark for high integrity carbon credits". The mechanism is expected to be passed at the UN climate summit Cop 29 in November in Azerbaijan. The appeal and grievance procedure sets the fee for filing an appeal at $30,000, compared with the $5,000 fee suggested in earlier iterations, which was seen by some supervisory body members at this week's meeting in Bonn, Germany, as "too low for project developers, but too high for vulnerable groups". The fee will be waived for appellants who are appealing for vulnerable groups, such as local communities and indigenous peoples. But the supervisory body failed to pass the mechanism's long-awaited sustainable development tool, instead launching a call for input. Members had criticised the lack of a validation and verification process for the tool, and its unclear delimitations, given that some of its objectives will be addressed in future rules on carbon removals activities or the carbon reduction methodologies under the mechanism. Making the tool mandatory was demanded by both countries and non-governmental organisations at recent Cop summits, with the lack of a grievance process and sustainable development tool part of the reason why the pricing mechanism was not finalised at Cop 28 in Dubai last year. The sustainable development tool of the Kyoto Protocol's clean development mechanism (CDM), which the new mechanism broadly aims to replace, was never made mandatory. A total of 1,796 carbon mitigation activities have now requested to transition from the CDM to the new mechanism, of which more than 300 have not yet provided full details and could miss the 31 August deadline, the UN's climate arm said in Bonn. The supervisory body called for an extension of the transition period to 4 November. Work on the new mechanism's registry is also advancing, with the supervisory body agreeing to launch a consultation on the "legal, technical and financial implications of providing functionality for the treatment of financial security interests in Article 6.4 emissions reductions within the mechanism registry". By Chloe Jardine Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Beccs revenues 'dependent on sustainability'
Beccs revenues 'dependent on sustainability'
London, 3 May (Argus) — Danish state-controlled utility Orsted and UK utility Drax are increasingly dependent on sustainability criteria for their revenue streams from carbon removal (CDR) credit sales from bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (Beccs) projects, delegates heard at the Argus Biomass conference in London last week. "The key to be able to create such a project is to secure finance, which actually comes from the sale of carbon removal certificates," Orsted senior lead business developer for CCS David Fich said. Adding that the ability of companies to prove the sustainability of the biomass they source was now key to securing financing — including from CDR — for Beccs, and not only a matter of communicating that bioenergy and Beccs were environmentally friendly and carbon neutral businesses. Drax commercial director Angela Hepworth agreed: "Sustainability here is not a nice-to-have, this is the very foundation of our licence to upgrade and our ability to sell the credits and enable us to progress in these projects." Aligned standards within the industry and stronger incentives would encourage corporates to buy carbon credits against reputation backlashes, Hepworth added. Drax and Swedish utility Stockholm Exergi commissioned a methodology for measuring the net CO2 removal through Beccs published in October 2023, which was overall well-received by market participants. The utilities also presented it to the European Commission in the same month. A standardised approach to Beccs would encourage smaller buyers, which rely on certifications to identify the sustainable criteria of the carbon removal value chain when purchasing CDR credits, Fich said. While most larger corporates were doing their own due diligence. "The smaller buyers are those that are able to pay more," Fich said, adding that these companies were necessary to improve the liquidity of the market. Orsted signed a contract with Microsoft in May 2023 for the purchase of 2.76mn t of carbon removals over the next 10 years. Drax is also selling CDR certificates in the voluntary carbon market](https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2441200) and is hoping to get the credits into the UK's trading scheme. Such deals "will help to make Beccs credits be seen in the more mainstream markets," Hepworth said. By Marta Imarisio Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Oregon renewable diesel pours into CFP bank
Oregon renewable diesel pours into CFP bank
Houston, 2 May (Argus) — Rising renewable diesel deliveries helped grow the volume of Oregon Clean Fuels Program (CFP) credits available for future compliance by a record 30pc in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to state data released today. The roughly 253,000 metric tonne (t) increase in available credits from the previous quarter — bringing the total to 1.1mn t — illustrates the spreading influence of US renewable diesel capacity on markets offering the most incentives for their output. California and Oregon low-carbon fuel standard (LCFS) credit prices have tumbled as renewable diesel deliveries generate a surge of credits in excess of immediate deficit needs. LCFS credits do not expire. LCFS programs require yearly reductions to transportation fuel carbon intensity. Higher-carbon fuels that exceed the annual limits incur deficits that suppliers must offset with credits generated from the distribution to the market of approved, lower-carbon alternatives. Renewable diesel volumes in Oregon increased by 12pc from the previous quarter to about 37,000 b/d — more than double the volume reported in the fourth quarter of 2022. The fuel represented 24pc of the Oregon liquid diesel pool for the period, while petroleum diesel fell to 75pc. Renewable diesel generated 46pc of all new credits for the quarter, compared to the 14pc from the next-highest contributor, biodiesel. Deficit generation meanwhile shrank from the previous quarter. Gasoline deficits fell by 6.6pc from the third quarter as consumption fell by roughly the same amount. Gasoline use trailed the fourth quarter of 2022 by 7.1pc. Diesel deficits also shrank as renewable alternatives push it out of the Oregon market. Petroleum diesel deficits fell by 19pc from the previous quarter and consumption was 27pc lower than the fourth quarter of 2022. Spot Oregon credits have fallen by half since late September, when state data offered the first indications that renewable diesel that was already inundating the California market had found its way to the smaller Oregon pool. The quarter marks the first time Oregon credits available for future compliance have exceeded 1mn t. Oregon in 2022 approved program targets extending into next decade that target a 20pc reduction by 2030 and a 37pc reduction by 2035. An ongoing rulemaking process this year will consider changes to how the state calculates the carbon intensity of fuels and verifies the activity of participants, but will not touch annual targets. By Elliott Blackburn Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
G7 coal exit goal puts focus on Germany, Japan and US
G7 coal exit goal puts focus on Germany, Japan and US
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