Bioenergy key for shift to net zero: IEA
The IEA sees bioenergy playing a key role in achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, which is key to meeting the goals of the Paris climate agreement.
In its Net Zero by 2050 report, published today, the IEA outlines a scenario whereby output of bioenergy — including liquid biofuels, biogases and sustainable solid bioenergy, but excluding traditional solid biomass — rises to 100 exajoules (EJ) in 2050 from less than 40EJ in 2020, enough to meet almost 20pc of the world's total energy needs.
The IEA's Net‐Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE) scenario shows global liquid biofuel consumption ramping up steeply to 6m b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) by 2030 from 1.6m boe/d in 2020, and the use of advanced biofuels grows to 2.7m boe/d from 0.1m boe/d over the same time. But subsequent growth slows, and total use reaches 7m boe/d in 2050 including 6.2m boe/d of third-generation fuels.
The IEA's NZE puts the main role for liquid biofuels shifting from road fuels to the marine and aviation sectors from 2030 as electrification grows to dominate road transport, with over half of liquid biofuels used for aviation by 2050. By then, 45pc of total fuel used in aircraft comprises biojet under the scenario.
Biofuels are the "main viable commercial alternative to diesel" for heavy trucks operating over long distances and "play an important role in lowering emissions", the IEA said. Even as the number of electric and hydrogen-powered heavy goods vehicles (HGVs) increase, biofuels still provide around 10pc of fuel needs for the HGV sector in 2050 in the IEA's pathway.
In shipping, advanced biofuels and hydrogen-based fuels such as ammonia increasingly displace oil, and sustainable biofuels provide almost 20pc of total shipping energy needs in 2050, according to the IEA's scenario.
Gaseous bioenergy is also a key pillar for decarbonization under the IEA's net zero scenario, supplying 5.4EJ in 2030 and 13.7EJ in 2050, up from 2.1EJ in 2020.
The IEA acknowledges possible risks from bioenergy expansion to biodiversity, fresh water and food supplies, and caps volumes used in its scenario well below global output potential to limit potential trade-offs. Supply will pivot on advanced feedstocks — such as woody feedstocks — and the use of crop-based biofuels will drop to 3EJ in 2050 after rising to 11EJ in 2030 from 9EJ in 2020 in the IEA's roadmap. The scale up required for all advanced liquid biofuels in the next 10 years, including from waste oils, is the equivalent to building one 55,000 boe/d biorefinery every 10 weeks, the IEA said.
Related news posts
Advanced Fame marine biodiesel blends hit 9-month low
Advanced Fame marine biodiesel blends hit 9-month low
London, 18 September (Argus) — Some marine biodiesel blend prices in northwest Europe hit a year-to-date low on 17 September, owing to soft fundamentals and easing values in underlying markets. Argus assessed the prices of B30 and B100 Advanced fatty acid methyl ester (Fame) 0 dob ARA — which include a deduction of the value of Dutch renewable fuel tickets (HBE-G) — at $674.01/t and $993.87/t, respectively. At these levels, the two blends were at their lowest outright price since 29 December last year — right before values rose sharply following the halving of the Dutch HBE-G multiplier for maritime blending at the start of the year. Prices have slipped on the back lacklustre demand for marine biodiesel blends in recent months. The price of EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) allowances, for which Advanced Fame marine biodiesel blends receive a zero emission factor, have averaged $70.56/t so far this year, compared with $93.43/t in the same period last year. Consequently, the expansion of EU ETS into the shipping sector has done little to financially incentivise the uptake of marine biodiesel blends this year. On the other hand, voluntary demand for marine biodiesel blends has been steady from shipowners seeking to deliver proof of sustainability (PoS) documentation to their customers to offset the latter's scope 3 emissions. But this may have shifted geographically in recent months in favour of Singapore over ARA. Soft fundamentals in the marine biodiesel blend market has been compounded by pressure on prices in underlying crude and biodiesel markets. The front-month Ice Brent crude futures and gasoil futures contracts hit a near three-year low at 16:30 BST on 10 September. This in turn weighed on values of very-low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) and marine gasoil (MGO), and the former makes up 70pc of the B30 Advanced Fame dob ARA blend. VLSFO dob ARA prices have averaged $505.58/t so far in September, compared with $533.38/t on 1-18 August, having hit $483/t on 10 September, the lowest level since August 2021. Meanwhile, in the underlying biodiesel market, Advanced Fame 0 fob ARA prices were at the second-lowest level on record on 17 September, with the price marked at parity to used cooking oil methyl ester (Ucome) for the first time. Several market participants have said that low prices for German greenhouse gas (GHG) quota tickets, which can be traded on the market to meet the country's emissions reduction mandate, have discouraged buyers from physically blending advanced biodiesel, as tickets are a cheaper option. The current year GHG other ticket price hit a new historic low of $85/t CO2 equivalent (CO2e) on 13 September, down by $115/t compared with the same time last year and by $378/t compared with two years ago. Provisional EU anti-dumping duties on Chinese-origin biodiesel that came into force on 16 August have also turned European buyers away from advanced product made in China, which used to be one of the main sources of advanced biodiesel in Europe. By Hussein Al-Khalisy and Simone Burgin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
EPA already at work on 2026-forward RFS rules
EPA already at work on 2026-forward RFS rules
Monterey, 17 September (Argus) — The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has started work on the second set of rules for the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), expected to span multiple years beginning in 2026, a spokesperson said today. The rule will likely establish renewable volume targets for multiple years under the RFS, although the exact timeframe has not been confirmed, EPA deputy office director Ben Hengst said today at the Argus North American Biofuels, LCFS and Carbon Summit in Monterey, California. Work on the incoming rule was originally not expected to begin until early 2025. Updated analysis, especially regarding advanced biofuels and feedstocks, will inform new rulemaking, as well as the inclusion of regulatory changes intended to improve the program's implementation, Hengst said. Unprecedented growth in US biofuels imports led overall advanced biofuel supply in 2023 to far surpass EPA projections. But biomass-based diesel volumes for the current rules were based on projected growth in North American feedstock supply — not international availability nor the nameplate capacities of US refineries, Hengst said. There were also large increases in imported feedstocks for biofuel production, namely in used cooking oil and tallow. But the potential for an upset in global trade flows remains an agency concern. Domestic policy in some countries could boost offshore consumption of feedstocks and finished fuels that have arrived to the US market in recent years, while the US policy environment itself remains vulnerable to change. The EPA is also navigating recent adverse judgments against its interpretation of the Small Refinery Exemption program and is prioritizing the development of options that would comply with court orders. There was no clarity provided on eRINs as the EPA continues to consider its options. By Jasmine Davis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US regulatory clarity vital to sustain biofuels growth
US regulatory clarity vital to sustain biofuels growth
Monterey, 17 September (Argus) — Clarity from both US state and federal regulators regarding the rules and incentives for biofuels production is essential to ensure continued growth to achieve underlying carbon-reduction targets, industry stakeholders said today. A lack of guidance for incentive programs and qualifications for 2025 and beyond is already hindering trade and investment in key US biofuels markets, panelists said today at the Argus North American Biofuels, LCFS and Carbon Summit in Monterey, California. The current biodiesel tax credit (BTC) is scheduled to give way to the Inflation Reduction Act's Clean Fuels Production Credit (CFPC) in January, while narrowed proposed targets and credit qualifications in state Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) programs has effectively left key portions of the biofuels market in a holding pattern. Alignment and certainty between regulatory bodies on what will be incentivized and credited in the future will be an essential component of business and investment decisions in the industry, necessary to reach ambitious carbon-reduction targets within the next decade. "The fact that we don't have clarity mid-September for a tax credit going into effect on 1 January, is really hard to believe," said Kurt Kovarik, vice president of federal affairs for Clean Fuels Alliance America. "No one knows the rules of the road with respect to 45Z." Panelists echoed opposition to proposed California caps on crop-based renewable feedstocks that discussed on Monday at the conference during sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) discussions. "If the goal is to remove carbon, the extent to which we can base it on science and not pick winners and losers is in everyone's interests," Kovarik said. "All you're going to end up doing is limiting the driving out of carbon." But speakers today further warned of the potential for a duplication of efforts by parties trying to satisfy both state LCFS programs and the federal Renewable Fuel Standard program. Proposed requirements may also require an unprecedented level of collaboration between segments of the US renewables supply chain. Those requirements could be more disruptive than the feedstock cap itself and potentially have the greatest limiting effect on fuel supply into California, said Don Gilstrap, Chevron's manager of fuels regulations. With that goal in mind, declining carbon intensity targets are already providing the necessary incentive for producers to pivot away from crop-based renewable feedstocks, Gilstrap said. But panelists were optimistic about rising interest in replicating LCFS-style focuses on carbon intensity — an approach they theorized would "unleash innovation" across both the finished fuels and feedstocks segments of the industry. By Jasmine Davis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
California regulator floats future LCFS linkage
California regulator floats future LCFS linkage
Monterey, 17 September (Argus) — California would welcome bringing US low-carbon fuel standard (LCFS) programs together in a common market, one of the state's top regulators said on Tuesday. Such a linkage is unlikely to occur in the near future, but California Air Resources Board (CARB) deputy executive director Rajinder Sahota said it is something worth pursuing. "I totally think we should link our LCFS programs," she said at the Argus North American Biofuels, LCFS and Carbon Markets Summit in Monterey, California. Sahota said California and other LCFS states are working on a system that could allow the trading of compliance credits between companies covered by each program, but did not provide any other details. Her comments mark a change in tenor from CARB, which historically has said a linkage would be difficult given the differing starting points and carbon intensity targets of each program. Oregon's Clean Fuels Program (CFP) started five years after California's LCFS, while Washington launched its Clean Fuel Standard just last year. New Mexico is working on its own program that will begin by 2026. Oregon and Washington regulators at the conference said there have not been any formal discussions about a linkage, but did not completely dismiss the idea, highlighting the close informal coordination between the states. "All puzzles can be solved eventually," said Bill Peters, interim director of the CFP. By Michael Ball Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Business intelligence reports
Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.
Learn more