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Bioenergy key for shift to net zero: IEA

  • Market: Biofuels
  • 18/05/21

The IEA sees bioenergy playing a key role in achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, which is key to meeting the goals of the Paris climate agreement.

In its Net Zero by 2050 report, published today, the IEA outlines a scenario whereby output of bioenergy — including liquid biofuels, biogases and sustainable solid bioenergy, but excluding traditional solid biomass — rises to 100 exajoules (EJ) in 2050 from less than 40EJ in 2020, enough to meet almost 20pc of the world's total energy needs.

The IEA's Net‐Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE) scenario shows global liquid biofuel consumption ramping up steeply to 6m b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) by 2030 from 1.6m boe/d in 2020, and the use of advanced biofuels grows to 2.7m boe/d from 0.1m boe/d over the same time. But subsequent growth slows, and total use reaches 7m boe/d in 2050 including 6.2m boe/d of third-generation fuels.

The IEA's NZE puts the main role for liquid biofuels shifting from road fuels to the marine and aviation sectors from 2030 as electrification grows to dominate road transport, with over half of liquid biofuels used for aviation by 2050. By then, 45pc of total fuel used in aircraft comprises biojet under the scenario.

Biofuels are the "main viable commercial alternative to diesel" for heavy trucks operating over long distances and "play an important role in lowering emissions", the IEA said. Even as the number of electric and hydrogen-powered heavy goods vehicles (HGVs) increase, biofuels still provide around 10pc of fuel needs for the HGV sector in 2050 in the IEA's pathway.

In shipping, advanced biofuels and hydrogen-based fuels such as ammonia increasingly displace oil, and sustainable biofuels provide almost 20pc of total shipping energy needs in 2050, according to the IEA's scenario.

Gaseous bioenergy is also a key pillar for decarbonization under the IEA's net zero scenario, supplying 5.4EJ in 2030 and 13.7EJ in 2050, up from 2.1EJ in 2020.

The IEA acknowledges possible risks from bioenergy expansion to biodiversity, fresh water and food supplies, and caps volumes used in its scenario well below global output potential to limit potential trade-offs. Supply will pivot on advanced feedstocks — such as woody feedstocks — and the use of crop-based biofuels will drop to 3EJ in 2050 after rising to 11EJ in 2030 from 9EJ in 2020 in the IEA's roadmap. The scale up required for all advanced liquid biofuels in the next 10 years, including from waste oils, is the equivalent to building one 55,000 boe/d biorefinery every 10 weeks, the IEA said.


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19/09/24

LNG-burning vessels well positioned ahead of 2025

LNG-burning vessels well positioned ahead of 2025

New York, 19 September (Argus) — Vessels outfitted with dual-fuel LNG-burning engines are poised to have the lowest marine fuel expense heading into 2025 when the EU will tighten its marine EU emissions trading system (ETS) regulations and add a new regulation, " FuelEU", from 1 January 2025. Considering both regulations, at current price levels, fossil LNG (also known as grey LNG) will be priced the cheapest compared with conventional marine fuels and other commonly considered alternative fuels such as biodiesel and methanol. The EU's FuelEU maritime regulation will require ship operators traveling in, out and within EU territorial waters to gradually reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity on a lifecycle basis, starting with a 2pc reduction in 2025, 6pc in 2030 and so on until getting to an 80pc drop, compared with 2020 base year levels. The FuelEU GHG intensity maximum is set at 85.69 grams of CO2-equivalent per MJ (gCO2e/MJ) from 2030 to 2034, dropping to 77.94 gCO2e/MJ in 2035. Vessel pools exceeding the FuelEU's limits will be fined €2,400/t ($2,675/t) of very low-sulphur fuel oil (VLFSO) energy equivalent. GHG emissions from grey LNG vary depending on the type of marine engine used to burn the LNG, but ranges from about 76.3-92.3 gCO2e/MJ, according to non-governmental environmental lobby group Transport & Environment. This makes a number of LNG-burning, ocean-going vessels compliant with FuelEU regulation through 2034. The EU's ETS for marine shipping commenced this year and requires that ship operators pay for 40pc of their GHG generated on voyages within, in and out of the EU. Next year, the EU ETS emissions limit will increase to 70pc. Even with the added 70pc CO2 emissions cost, US Gulf coast grey LNG was assessed at $639/t VLSFOe, compared with the second cheapest VLSFO at $689/t, B30 biodiesel at $922/t and grey methanol at $931/t VLSFOe average from 1-18 September (see chart). "In 2025, we expect [US natural gas] prices to rise as [US] LNG exports increase while domestic consumption and production remain relatively flat for much of the year," says the US Energy Information Administration. "We forecast the Henry Hub price to average around $2.20/million British thermal units (mmBtu) in 2024 and $3.10/mmBtu in 2025." Provided that prices of biodiesel and methanol remain relatively flat, the projected EIA US 2025 LNG price gains would not affect LNG's price ranking, keeping it the cheapest alternative marine fuel option for ship owners traveling between the US Gulf coast and Europe. LNG for bunkering global consumption from vessels 5,000 gross tonnes and over reached 12.9mn t in 2023, according to the International Maritime Organization (IMO), up from 11mn t in 2022 and 12.6mn t in 2021. The maritime port authority of Singapore reported 111,000t of LNG bunker sales and the port authorities of Rotterdam and Antwerp reported 319,000t in 2023 from all size vessels. Among vessels 5,000 gross tonnes and over, LNG carriers accounted for 89pc of LNG bunker demand globally, followed by container ships at 3.6pc, according to the IMO. The large gap between LNG global and LNG Singapore, Rotterdam, and Antwerp bunker demand, is likely the result of most of the demand taking place at the biggest LNG export locations where LNG carriers call, such as the US Gulf coast, Qatar, Australia, Russia and Malaysia. By Stefka Wechsler USGC bunkers and bunker alternatives $/t VLSFOe Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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South Korea's GS Caltex supplies SAF to Japan


19/09/24
News
19/09/24

South Korea's GS Caltex supplies SAF to Japan

Singapore, 19 September (Argus) — South Korean refiner GS Caltex exported around 5,000 kilolitres of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) to Japan's Narita airport via Japanese trading firm Itochu on 13 September, GS Caltex said today. The SAF was a blend of neat SAF from Finnish biofuel producer Neste and jet fuel. It is compliant with the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (Corsia) and is International Sustainability and Carbon Certification (ISCC)-certified. Neste said it supplied over 1,000t of neat Corsia-eligible and ISCC-certified SAF to GS Caltex's refinery in Yeosu for blending, in what it described as the first time SAF was blended locally in South Korea. The blended SAF was then transported to Japan. The first batch is scheduled to be sold to major Japanese airlines All Nippon Airways (ANA) and Japan Airlines (JAL), ahead of the International Civil Aviation Organization's (ICAO) mandate to use Corsia-eligible SAF from 2027. ANA and JAL have previous agreements with Itochu to secure SAF for their flights departing and landing at Haneda, Narita, and Chubu International Airport. GS Caltex, Neste and Itochu have been collaborating on this project since last year, and will continue to sell Corsia-compliant SAF commercially to Japan. Japan is proposing stricter rules for domestic SAF producers , with further details expected later this year. The country in 2022 mandated that SAF has to account for at least 10pc of domestic airlines' jet fuel consumption by 2030. GS Caltex will likely be the fourth South Korean refiner to produce biofuels this year. S-Oil has been co-processing SAF at its Onsan refinery since January, and SK Energy in September completed a dedicated SAF production line at its 840,000 b/d Ulsan refinery which will begin commercial output next month. Hyundai Oilbank also supplied co-processed SAF to ANA via Japanese trading firm Marubeni earlier this year, marking Japan's first import of South Korean SAF. South Korea's Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy and the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport announced an SAF expansion strategy on 30 August, which includes a target for South Korea to capture 30pc of the global blended SAF export market. By Deborah Sun Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Pertamina supplies first SAF to Virgin Australia


19/09/24
News
19/09/24

Pertamina supplies first SAF to Virgin Australia

Singapore, 19 September (Argus) — Indonesian state-owned refiner Pertamina has supplied its first sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) to airline Virgin Australia, as part of the continuing Bali International Air Show. Pertamina is supplying around 160 kilolitres (kl) of SAF to Virgin Australia's Boeing 737 aircraft from the Ngurah Rai aviation fuel terminal in Bali for flights during 18-19 September. This was part of the 3,500 kl of blended SAF that Pertamina had sought for end-August delivery, intended to be used at the air show. The remaining volumes will be sold to other airlines and sales will be assessed before any further SAF purchases are made, a company source said. The SAF is a blend of 38.43pc synthetic kerosine produced from used cooking oil (UCO) and 61.57pc fossil jet fuel, said the director of central marketing and commerce at Pertamina Patra Niaga Maya Kusmaya. Pertamina also has plans to co-process SAF from UCO at its Cilacap refinery next year, before producing SAF by the hydrotreated esters and fatty acids pathway when its Cilacap "green refinery" comes on line, said a company source, although more details have yet to be disclosed. SAF distributed at Ngurah Rai is also managed using mass balancing, meaning that while jet fuel is mixed with SAF in the same tank as both have similar technical specifications, recording and bookkeeping for both products are managed separately. Pertamina obtained International Sustainability and Carbon Certification (ISCC) Corsia and ISCC EU RED-compliant certification for its SAF last month. The SAF supplied also meets ASTM international standards. By Sarah Giam Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Indonesia to require SAF for flights from 2027


19/09/24
News
19/09/24

Indonesia to require SAF for flights from 2027

Singapore, 19 September (Argus) — Indonesia will require flights to use sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in their fuel mix from 2027, the Co-ordinating Ministry for Maritime Affairs and Investment announced on 18 September during the Bali International Air Show. International flights departing Indonesia will be required to use 1pc SAF in their fuel mix, or an estimated 60,000 kilolitres (kl), in 2027. This will rise to 2.5pc by 2030, 12.5pc by 2040, 30pc by 2050, and 50pc, or a projected 7.88mn kl, by 2060. The country's SAF roadmap and policy action plan was also announced on 18 September, and will be implemented as a Presidential Instruction by September. Used cooking oil (UCO) and palm fatty acid distillate (Pfad) were cited as prioritised feedstocks, although other potential feedstocks like palm oil-based feedstocks, coconut, and seaweed will be explored as well. Crude palm oil (CPO) was identified as the alternative SAF feedstock that is most widely available within Indonesia, with a current excess supply of 16.5mn t after energy and food use, which can be converted into 13.3mn t of SAF. But SAF produced from CPO is estimated to have life cycle emissions of 77-99 gCO2/MJ, above the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO), US and EU standards, limiting its global marketability. Indonesia aims to establish a taskforce to further engage ICAO on this, over a maximum of two years. SAF Action Plan A 2025-29 Action Plan was also announced, with three main policy pillars of demand, supply and enablers which were mentioned earlier in the year . Notable points under the supply pillar includes securing enough domestic feedstocks for SAF production via the hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) pathway – which included a proposed domestic market obligation (DMO) for Pfad, and export quota and/or tariff for UCO. Emission-based incentives for SAF and exploring SAF production through other pathways, like alcohol-to-jet, were also mentioned. The country's Ministry of Investment said that the country has potential to produce up to 1.72mn kl of SAF, 8.03mn kl of biodiesel, and 1.76mn kl of bioethanol, based on the Strategic Investment Downstream Roadmap over 2023-2040. Under the enablers pillar, there are plans to appoint a national accreditation body for SAF certification and a domestic SAF certification ecosystem. Under the demand pillar, the country aims to implement pilot SAF offtake agreements for international flights from Ngurah Rai International Airport, and to increase the SAF mandate at Ngurah Rai, the Soekarno-Hatta International Airport, and other major airports. It also plans for an SAF usage mandate for corporate and government travellers. South Korea previously announced a 1pc SAF mandate in August for international flights, while Japan proposed stricter rules for domestic SAF producers to cut greenhouse gas emissions from jet fuel use in June, with the discussions to be finalised later this year. By Sarah Giam Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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China launches SAF pilot programme


19/09/24
News
19/09/24

China launches SAF pilot programme

Shanghai, 19 September (Argus) — China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) have launched a pilot programme to support the uptake of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) in China. The SAF pilot programme will have two phases, the authorities announced on 18 September at the launch ceremony in Beijing. During the first stage from 19 September to December 2024, Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines will refuel with SAF-blended jet fuel on 12 flights departing from Beijing Daxing International Airport, Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport, Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport, and Ningbo Lishe International Airport. The SAF blend ratio planned for each flight was not disclosed. The second pilot stage will take place in 2025 with an increased number of participants, but it was not disclosed which firms will be participating. SAF used during the pilot programme must meet fuel standards set by CAAC to guarantee safety. China has been trying to develop SAF in the domestic market, with a consumption target of 50,000t set in the 14th Five-Year-Plan. Chinese aircraft manufacturer Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (Comac) completed its first demonstration flight using jet fuel blended with 40pc SAF in June. The Development Research Center for Sustainable Aviation Fuel was then established in July to lead the development of a Chinese certification system and promote technological progress in the domestic SAF industry. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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