Looming Venezuela talks whet investor appetite
Venezuela is returning to the geopolitical stage after months out of the limelight.
President Nicolas Maduro's government and his political opponents are preparing to restart negotiations to establish credible conditions for state and local elections on 21 November, cooperation to address the Covid-19 pandemic and broader power-sharing arrangements. If the talks succeed, the US would gradually lift sanctions, unshackling the Opec country's national oil industry and galvanizing a new class of private investment after more than two decades of catastrophic state control over the economy.
In anticipation of the expected kick-off of the Norwegian-brokered talks next month, both sides are conferring with their international patrons. An opposition delegation led by Gerardo Blyde — a veteran of a previous failed dialogue — is in Washington this week before heading to Brussels. Venezuela's foreign minister Jorge Arreaza met with his counterpart Sergei Lavrov in Moscow.
The negotiations will test an incremental strategy espoused by a moderate opposition wing led by former Miranda state governor and ex-presidential candidate Henrique Capriles, who is eclipsing hardliners embodied by prominent exile Leopoldo Lopez and his protege in Venezuela, Juan Guaido. The moderates advocate participating in elections however flawed and resolving day-to-day problems on the ground, even if that means working with Maduro. The Lopez-led camp has long pursued an all-or-nothing strategy manifested by an electoral boycott.
In January 2019, Guaido, then-head of Venezuela's National Assembly, was anointed president of an ersatz interim government actively supported by former US president Donald Trump's administration. Western recognition and popular support for Guaido crumbled after he failed to fulfill his vow to oust the "usurper". Dispirited technocrats who initially joined him have gone back to their day jobs or retirement. In Washington, President Joe Biden's administration is now hoping the upcoming talks will lead to an off-ramp for the awkward recognition of Guaido and the sanctions inherited from Trump.
In parallel, some oil companies, yield-hungry private equity firms and jilted bondholders are hoping for an on-ramp. Departing from the Bolivarian socialism ushered in by late president Hugo Chavez in 1999, Maduro is promoting "anti-blockade" legislation that would allow the private sector to hold a majority stake in upstream oil contracts, of which around two dozen have already been signed with unnamed local and foreign companies. Execution of the contracts rests on reforming the country's hydrocarbons law to cement the elimination of Venezuelan state-owned PdV's mandate of control, a proposition rejected by ideological purists in Maduro's socialist party (PSUV).
Incumbent Western oil companies such as Chevron, which is on stand-by in Venezuela under a US sanctions waiver, hope the political talks and legislative reform converge into an opportunity to revive Orinoco heavy oil belt operations and tap long-neglected natural gas reserves. EU firms Repsol and Eni are eyeing export avenues for the gas they are already producing offshore. Peers with no Venezuela presence are unlikely to rush in because of political risk and the carbon intensity of Orinoco operations.
Quick wins
Beyond the IOCs, the potential reopening is attracting a speculative class of investors generally keener on short-term profits than long-term gains, including fledgling private equity groups with Venezuelan capital and holders of some $60bn in defaulted Venezuelan sovereign and PdV bonds.
Current bond prices of as little as $0.03 on the dollar are expected to inch up in anticipation of a political deal and an easing of US restrictions on Venezuelan bond trading. Some bondholders want to exchange their debt for equity in privatized state-owned entities or reserves of oil and minerals, a mechanism quietly discussed with Maduro's top financial adviser, Ecuador's former finance minister Patricio Rivera.
One privileged group are PdV 2020 bondholders that have a pledge of shares in PdV's US refining subsidiary Citgo, nominally controlled by Guaido. A US government suspension of a license for the bondholders to execute their claim is up for renewal next month. Citgo is already subject to a conditional sale process on behalf of other creditors, namely New York hedge fund Tenor Capital Management and ConocoPhillips.
Outside the US, the question of who controls Venezuelan gold reserves held in the Bank of England will be heard by the UK Supreme Court next month, another case Guaido seems likely to lose given London's ongoing diplomatic ties to Maduro.
A modest win for Guaido could come from the US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (Ofac), which is close to unfreezing some $27mn in Venezuelan central bank funds on his behalf to establish a cold chain for Covid-19 vaccines in coordination with Unicef.
Related news posts
Barge delays at Algiers lock near New Orleans
Barge delays at Algiers lock near New Orleans
Houston, 24 April (Argus) — Barges are facing lengthy delays at the Algiers lock near New Orleans as vessels reroute around closures at the Port Allen lock and the Algiers Canal. Delays at the Algiers Lock —at the interconnection of the Mississippi River and the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway— have reached around 37 hours in the past day, according to the US Army Corps of Engineers' lock report. Around 50 vessels are waiting to cross the Algiers lock. Another 70 vessels were waiting at the nearby Harvey lock with a six-hour wait in the past day. The closure at Port Allen lock has spurred the delays, causing vessels to reroute through the Algiers lock. The Port Allen lock is expected to reopen on 28 April, which should relieve pressure on the Algiers lock. Some traffic has been rerouted through the nearby Harvey lock since the Algiers Canal was closed by a collapsed powerline, the US Coast Guard said. The powerline fell on two barges, but no injuries or damages were reported. The wire is being removed by energy company Entergy. The canal is anticipated to reopen at midnight on 25 April. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Iraq to keep 3.3mn b/d crude export cap until year end
Iraq to keep 3.3mn b/d crude export cap until year end
Dubai, 24 April (Argus) — Iraq will stick to its pledge to cap crude exports at 3.3mn b/d until the end of the year, regardless of what the Opec+ coalition decides at its June meeting, sources with knowledge of the matter told Argus. Baghdad announced the 3.3mn b/d export limit last month , representing a 100,000 b/d cut compared with the first-quarter average. April's exports will be in line with recent months, according to the sources, indicating that Iraq has yet to adhere to the cap. The self-imposed limit on exports is part of Iraq's commitment to compensate for exceeding its 4mn b/d Opec+ production target in the first three months of 2024. It produced 211,000 b/d above target in January, then overshot by 217,000 b/d and 194,000 b/d in February and March, respectively, according to an average of secondary sources including Argus . Prior to that, Iraq exceeded its then 4.22mn b/d output ceiling in each of the last six months of 2023. The persistent overproduction has drawn scrutiny within Opec+, prompting repeated reassurances from Baghdad in recent months that it is committed to its output pledges. Iraq blames it on its inability to oversee production in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region in the north of the country. Most Iraqi Kurdish crude output is being directed to local refineries or sold on the black market following the closure of the export pipeline that links oil fields in northern Iraq to the Turkish port of Ceyhan just over a year ago. Iraq's federal oil ministry says its Kurdish counterpart has stopped providing production data. Baghdad recently sent the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) an official request to hand over oil produced in the region to federal marketer Somo in order to resume Kurdish exports through Turkey, the sources said. Baghdad also urged the KRG back in January to curb output to help Iraq adhere to its lower Opec+ production quota. Ever-widening gap The Association of the Petroleum Industry of Kurdistan (Apikur) said international oil companies (IOCs) operating in the region were hoping that a long-awaited visit to Baghdad by Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan on 22 April might help pave the way for a restart in exports. "We definitely believe the Iraqi government seems more serious about resolving the issues after prime minister [Mohammed Shia] al-Sudani's visit to the US," an IOC source told Argus. But differences between the KRG and Baghdad, mainly over contracts that the former signed with international oil companies (IOCs) in Kurdistan, continue to delay the restart. And tensions between the two sides show little sign of easing. In a statement on 22 April, the KRG's ministry of natural resources accused Baghdad of misleading statements by seeking to blame the KRG for the export shut-in, adding that there is no provision in Iraq's constitution that gives power to the federal government to approve contracts issued by the KRG. With the help of multiple federal court rulings, Baghdad has been attempting to downgrade the KRG's autonomy over its finances and energy sector. A court ruling in February 2022 overturned a law governing Kurdish oil and gas exports and upheld Baghdad's request that all KRG production-sharing contracts be placed under federal oil ministry oversight. The judgment rendered the KRG's 2007 oil and gas law unconstitutional, raising questions over the future of the KRG's active contracts. The KRG's natural resources ministry has dismissed the February 2022 court order, saying it was delivered by a "committee of political appointees in Baghdad". While the federal Iraqi oil ministry "publicly refers to that committee as the 'Federal Supreme Court', everyone knows that it is no such thing", the ministry said. By Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
EU adopts sustainability due diligence rules
EU adopts sustainability due diligence rules
Brussels, 24 April (Argus) — The European parliament has formally approved a Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD), which will require large EU companies to make "best efforts" for climate change mitigation. The law will mean that relevant companies will have to adopt a transition plan to make their business model compatible with the 1.5°C temperature limit set by the Paris climate agreement. It will apply to EU firms with over 1,000 employees and turnover above €450mn ($481mn). It will also apply to some companies with franchising or licensing agreements in the EU. The directive requires transposition into different EU national laws. It obliges member states to ensure relevant firms adopt and put into effect a transition plan for climate change mitigation. Transition plans must aim to "ensure, through best efforts" that business models and company strategies are compatible with transition to a sustainable economy, limiting global warming to 1.5°C and achieving climate neutrality by 2050. Where "relevant", the plans should limit "exposure of the company to coal-, oil- and gas-related activities". Despite a provisional agreement, EU states initially failed to formally approve the provisional agreement reached with parliament in December, after some member states blocked the deal. Parliament's adoption — at its last session before breaking for EU elections — paves the way for entry into force later in the year. Industry has obtained clarification, in the non-legal introduction, that the directive's requirements are an "obligation of means and not of results" with "due account" being given to progress that firms make as well as the "complexity and evolving" nature of climate transitioning. Still, firms' climate transition plans need to contain "time-bound" targets for 2030 and in five-year intervals until 2050 based on "conclusive scientific" evidence and, where appropriate, absolute reduction targets for greenhouse gas (GHG) for direct scope 1 emissions as well as scope 2 and scope 3 emissions. Scope 1 refers to emissions directly stemming from an organisation's activity, while scope 2 refers to indirect emissions from purchased energy. Scope 3 refers to end-use emissions. "It is alarming to see how member states weakened the law in the final negotiations. And the law lacks an effective mechanism to force companies to reduce their climate emissions," said Paul de Clerck, campaigner at non-governmental organisation Friends of the Earth Europe, pointing to "gaping" loopholes in the adopted text. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Libya eyes progress on Eni-led oil and gas project
Libya eyes progress on Eni-led oil and gas project
London, 24 April (Argus) — Libya intends to move ahead with a $4bn-5bn oil and gas project proposed by Eni, months after putting the project on hold because of widespread opposition. The country's Supreme Council for Energy last month essentially cleared the way for block NC-07 to be awarded to a consortium of Italy's Eni, France's TotalEnergies, Abu Dhabi's Adnoc and Turkey's state-owned Turkish Energy after a technical review found Libyan institutions lacked the financial means to develop the project alone, according to leaked minutes of the meeting seen by Argus . More recently, Turkey's energy minister Alparslan Bayraktar said on 19 April that an agreement on NC-07 was close. "We are about to sign," he said. On 16 April, Libya's acting oil minister Khalifa Rajab Abdulsadek signalled the project was still on the cards. Eni did not comment. State-owned NOC could not be reached. Tripoli-based prime minister Abdelhamid Dbeibeh and NOC had been on the cusp of awarding NC-07 to the Eni-led consortium in January before widespread opposition forced Dbeibeh to order a review addressing concerns . Plans envisage at least 200mn ft³/d of gas and an unspecified amount of oil. The moves reflect a growing impetus by Libya's oil leadership to drive forward long-delayed projects as it seeks to boost oil production capacity from 1.2mn-1.3mn b/d to 2mn b/d and double gas output to around 3.5bn ft³/d over the next three to five years. Libya is also set to begin negotiations with TotalEnergies and ConocoPhillips in Paris next month over their demand for better terms at Waha Oil Company in return for investing in expanding production capacity, an oil industry source told Argus . This is also likely to prove controversial as many in the industry and beyond are opposed to altering contractual terms. The apparent fresh push comes just weeks after the ousting of oil minister Mohamed Oun , who had opposed awarding NC-07 to the consortium and rejected several other oil and gas deals pursued by the Tripoli-based government and NOC. Opponents of the deal have said that the consortium was set to receive a share of production that is too high and that current operator state-owned Agoco could develop the field for a fraction of the cost. The oil ministry under Oun had also suggested that NC-07 could have been put to a public tender rather than be the subject of direct negotiations. Proponents of the NC-07 deal said Libya must rapidly move ahead with projects to ensure domestic demand is met and the country can continue to export gas. The Supreme Council for Energy said Libya will face a severe gas shortage by 2026 on its current trajectory and become a gas importer unless development projects are implemented. While Libya's political divisions persist, its oil sector has enjoyed a greater level of stability over the past two years. Forced production shutdowns have been few and far between while interest from international oil companies has grown. But accusations of improper conduct in the oil industry have increased in tandem. One of the key challenges facing Libya's oil sector is project implementation. A landmark $8bn deal for Eni to develop offshore gas fields was signed in early 2023, but Argus understands that there has been little progress on implementation. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Business intelligence reports
Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.
Learn more