Viewpoint: Tough Brazil ethanol year signals resilience
A difficult 2021-22 center-south sugar cane crop cycle has highlighted the resilience of Brazil's ethanol sector in the face of challenging economics and operating circumstances, beating worst-case scenario projections despite production losses.
But the sector may need to call on those qualities in the coming crop cycle, as the threats of Covid-19-induced demand and supply chain disruptions, combined with increasingly volatile weather conditions, show no signs of fading.
The center-south 2021-22 sugar cane harvest is proving to be one of the most challenging seasons on record. The first part of the year saw Covid-19 pandemic measures severely capping motor fuels demand. In the following months extreme weather condition severely reduced the amount of feedstock available for processing, raising fears of biofuel shortages and growing imports to offset the limited domestic supply.
On top of a prolonged drought — the worst in almost a century — the sugarcane crop was hurt by three waves of frost in July that constrained cane crushing in most of the country's main producing states. Several states also endured record-breaking wildfires in October.
Under normal conditions, center-south sugarcane processing typically ends in mid-November, but most mills in the country's main ethanol-producing region, ranging from Mato Grosso to Parana states, had already finished crushing activities by late October because of the smaller crop.
Still, the industry has built up enough inventory to meet anhydrous ethanol demand despite this season's truncated center-south sugarcane harvest.
Some mills shifted production to increase the share of anhydrous ethanol in the mix, to ensure sufficient domestic supply to honor contracts and the mandatory blend in gasoline. Others reprocessed hydrous ethanol into anhydrous by removing water so it can be blended into gasoline.
The impact on hydrous supply was offset by lower sales as drivers continued to prefer gasoline over pure ethanol at the pump. In Brazil, hydrous ethanol is used as a standalone biofuel, E100. Consumers with flex-fuel vehicles can fill their tanks with either gasoline, which has a mandatory blend of 27pc anhydrous ethanol, or hydrous.
Weather sparks concerns for 2022
Brazilian cane producers, turning to 2022, are faced with repeats of the previous challenges, but with the outcomes largely out of their hands.
The ongoing expectations for extreme weather conditions to become the new norm will continue to challenge feedstock availability. The continuing uncertainty of the length of the pandemic makes managing those climate risks effectively even harder from both a financial and domestic supply security perspective.
Nonetheless, producers' success in juggling the many supply shortage issues in 2021 gives further guarantees of a new balanced crop, even with sugarcane fields still under pressure from weather events.
SCA ethanol trading house expects mills in the center-south region to crush 547mn t of cane in the 2022-23 season, up 4pc from 525mn t in the current 2021-22 harvest. Ethanol production is seen reaching 28.78bn l (495,947 b/d), up 5pc from 27.52bn l.
But other projections are not so sweet. The harsh weather conditions and fires seen in 2021 have compromised planting activities and damaged sugar cane roots, possibly holding back yields in the 2022-23 crop season, according to industry group Unica.
A smaller crop suggests a difficult year for Brazilian cane producers, and the industry may have to choose between prioritizing sugar or ethanol.
Some market sources see the potential for mills to start prioritizing ethanol production over sugar next season after favoring the sweetener over the past two crops, reflecting higher oil prices, higher Indian sugar exports and a weaker local currency.
Corn-based ethanol could play a key role in offsetting declines in sugarcane-based production. Corn ethanol production in Brazil is poised to grow to 3.9bn l in the coming season, up 16pc from the 3.35bn l expected from the current harvest.
The corn-based biofuel has increased its share of the country's ethanol mix in recent years, mainly because of increased production capacity concentrated in the country's center-west, spread across Mato Grosso and Goias states.
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US Gulf lowest-cost green ammonia in 2030: Report
US Gulf lowest-cost green ammonia in 2030: Report
New York, 16 April (Argus) — The US Gulf coast will likely be the lowest cost source of green ammonia to top global bunkering ports Singapore and Rotterdam by 2030, according to a study by independent non-profits Rocky Mountain Institute and the Global Maritime Forum. Green ammonia in Singapore is projected to be sourced from the US Gulf coast at $1,100/t, Chile at $1,850/t, Australia at $1,940/t, Namibia at $2,050/t and India at $2,090/t very low-sulphur fuel oil equivalent (VLSFOe) in 2030. Singapore is also projected to procure green methanol from the US Gulf coast at $1,330/t, China at $1,640/t, Australia at $2,610/t and Egypt at $2,810/t VLSFOe in 2030. The US Gulf coast would be cheaper for both Chinese bio-methanol and Egyptian or Australian e-methanol. But modeling suggests that competition could result in US methanol going to other ports, particularly in Europe, unless the Singaporean port ecosystem moves to proactively secure supply, says the study. In addition to space constraints imposed by its geography, Singapore has relatively poor wind and solar energy sources, which makes local production of green hydrogen-based-fuels expensive, says the study. Singapore locally produced green methanol and green ammonia are projected at $2,910/t and $2,800/t VLSFOe, respectively, in 2030, higher than imports, even when considering the extra transport costs. The study projects that fossil fuels would account for 47mn t VLSFOe, or 95pc of Singapore's marine fuel demand in 2030. The remaining 5pc will be allocated between green ammonia (about 1.89mn t VLSFOe) and green methanol (3.30mn t VLSFOe). Rotterdam to pull from US Gulf Green ammonia in Rotterdam is projected to be sourced from the US Gulf coast at $1,080/t, locally produced at $2,120/t, sourced from Spain at $2,150/t and from Brazil at $2,310/t. Rotterdam is also projected to procure green methanol from China at $1,830/t, Denmark at $2,060/t, locally produce it at $2,180/t and from Finland at $2,190/t VLSFOe, among other countries, but not the US Gulf coast . The study projects that fossil fuels would account for 8.1mn t VLSFOe, or 95pc of Rotterdam's marine fuel demand in 2030. The remaining 5pc will be allocated between green ammonia, at about 326,000t, and green methanol, at about 570,000t VLSFOe. Rotterdam has a good renewable energy potential, according to the study. But Rotterdam is also a significant industrial cluster and several of the industries in the port's hinterland are seeking to use hydrogen for decarbonisation. As such, the port is expected to import most of its green hydrogen-based fuel supply. Though US-produced green fuels are likely to be in high demand, Rotterdam can benefit from EU incentives for hydrogen imports, lower-emission fuel demand created by the EU emissions trading system and FuelEU Maritime. But the EU's draft Renewable Energy Directive could limit the potential for European ports like Rotterdam to import US green fuels. The draft requirements in the Directive disallow fuel from some projects that benefit from renewable electricity incentives, like the renewable energy production tax credit provided by the US's Inflation Reduction Act, after 2028. If these draft requirements are accepted in the final regulation, they could limit the window of opportunity for hydrogen imports from the US to Rotterdam to the period before 2028, says the study. By Stefka Wechsler Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Singapore, Rotterdam advance 'green' shipping corridor
Singapore, Rotterdam advance 'green' shipping corridor
Singapore, 15 April (Argus) — The Singapore-Rotterdam Green and Digital Shipping Corridor (GDSC) is accelerating its decarbonisation efforts with new partners, and is advancing initiatives to encourage the uptake of sustainable marine fuels. The world's two largest marine fuel hubs established the Singapore-Rotterdam GDSC in August 2022, in a push for maritime decarbonisation and digitalisation between the ports. There are 26 global value-chain partners in the GDSC initiative including fuel suppliers, shipping lines, knowledge partners and financial entities. German container shipping line Hapag-Lloyd is the latest partner in the Singapore-Rotterdam trade lane, committing to operate large container vessels on zero and near-zero carbon emission fuels. Hapag-Lloyd is the world's fifth-largest liner shipping firm with at least 260 ocean-going vessels, according to the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA). GDSC working groups will also pilot the uptake of sustainable marine fuels — like bio-methane, methanol, ammonia, and hydrogen — and test out commercial structures to reduce cost barriers in switching to alternative fuels. This includes a bio-methane working group that is studying regulations and standards to support adopting the fuel for marine bunkering on a commercial scale. GDSC partners also plan to carry out bio-LNG bunkering pilots over 2024-25, based on a mass balancing chain of custody principle. A methanol working group is working on fuel standards and knowledge exchange, in addition to addressing common challenges to carry out commercial methanol bunkering at Singapore and Rotterdam. And an ammonia working group is developing a framework to assess the lifecycle greenhouse gas intensity of green ammonia for bunkering, to be completed by 2025. Improvements to digitalisation have also been made as part of the GDSC initiative, with Singapore and Rotterdam successfully piloting an exchange of port-to-port data. Both ports will be able to exchange vessel arrival and departure times for port planning, and ships travelling between Singapore and Rotterdam can also optimise their port call voyage. The maritime sector is pushing towards a more resilient and efficient energy transition, and participants have pointed out that collaboration between countries and stakeholders would be key to green shipping corridors . The GDSC is a "very valuable collaboration in accelerating the twin transition: the integration of digital innovation in energy transition efforts," said chief executive officer of Port of Rotterdam Authority (PoR), Boudewijn Siemons. "Not only are we seeing the first results in standardization and data sharing for Port Call Optimization but also the first steps in moving towards operationalization of zero and low carbon fuels on this trade lane." Progress on the GDSC development also reflects that "public-private collaboration across global value chains can be achieved," said MPA chief executive Teo Eng Dih. By Cassia Teo Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Gunvor set for buying spree after windfall: CEO
Gunvor set for buying spree after windfall: CEO
London, 12 April (Argus) — Trading firm Gunvor plans to use part of a massive earnings windfall over the past two years to build out its asset base, its chief executive Torbjörn Törnqvist told Argus . "Today, we are under-invested in assets so we will change that," Törnqvist said, adding that investments would be broad based and to some extent opportunistic. "We will employ quite a lot of capital in investments." Independent commodity trading companies are sitting on unprecedented piles of cash after two years of bumper earnings arising from supply chain disruptions and market volatility. While Geneva-based Gunvor is smaller than its peers Vitol, Trafigura and Mercuria, it is still a huge company by most metrics. It reported revenues of $127bn in 2023 and a profit of $1.25bn, following a record $2.36bn in 2022. It has kept most of its earnings in house and had an equity position of almost $6.16bn by the end of 2023 — its highest ever. Törnqvist is eyeing further growth. "We will definitely be a much bigger company, that I can say," he replied when asked where he saw Gunvor in 10 years' time. "I think we will grow in tune with the [energy] transition." Trading firms are looking for ways to keep their competitive advantage, particularly given the uncertainties associated with the energy transition. One emerging trend is an appetite for infrastructure. Vitol is in the process of buying a controlling stake in Italian refiner Saras, which operates the 300,000 b/d Sarroch refinery in Sardinia. Trafigura said this week that it is in talks to buy ExxonMobil's 133,000 b/d Fos refinery on the French Mediterranean coast. Part of the rationale behind these moves is to increase optionality and take advantage of the loss of Russian products to the European market, as well the closure of large chunks of local refining capacity. Gunvor owns the landlocked 100,000 b/d Ingolstadt refinery in Germany and a 75,000 b/d refinery in Rotterdam, where it plans to shift away from fossil fuel use. "Many oil refineries have been up for sale and still are," Törnqvist said. Asked if Gunvor was looking for something similar, he said the company is interested in the "right opportunity" whether in upstream, downstream, midstream or shipping. "It all feeds into what we are doing and all supports our underlying trading," he said. But Törnqvist suspects a lot of Gunvor's growth will come from gas and power — areas where trading companies are already seeing rising profits. The company made its first investment in a power generation asset late in 2023, when it agreed to buy BP's 75pc stake in the 785MW Bahia de Bizkaia combined-cycle gas turbine plant in Bilbao, Spain. It has signed a slew of LNG offtake agreements in the past year and continues to grow its LNG tanker fleet . "We're building logistical capabilities in LNG," Törnqvist said. "Oil is here to stay" Törnqvist said Gunvor is well placed to navigate the energy transition, and is stepping up investments in renewables and biofuels and expanding into carbon and metals trading. "There will be disruptions, there will be different paths to the transition in different parts of the world which go at different paces and have different priorities and ways to deal with it," he said. "This will create opportunities." But Törnqvist is clear that oil and gas will remain an integral part of Gunvor's business. "We feel that oil is here to stay," he said. "And it will grow for several years." By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Japan’s Idemitsu, Zen-noh tie up on SAF feedstock
Japan’s Idemitsu, Zen-noh tie up on SAF feedstock
Osaka, 11 April (Argus) — Japanese refiner Idemitsu has agreed to collaborate with Zen-noh Grain, a US subsidiary of Japan's national federation of agricultural co-operative associations (Zen-noh), to secure feedstock to produce sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Idemitsu will work together with Louisiana-based Zen-noh Grain to establish an SAF supply chain, by developing various types of its feedstocks in North America and bringing some of them to Japan to produce SAF, Idemitsu announced on 11 April. Under the deal, the companies plan to extract oil from soybeans, which Zen-noh handles in Japan and the US, and process it to SAF by using hydrotreated esters and fatty acids (Hefa) technology. The firms are also aiming to develop other non-edible oilseed feedstocks, such as camelina sativa, carinata and winter rapeseed, as off-season soybean crops in North America, while studying possible uses for the leftover residue after extraction of oil from pongamia in Japan. Idemitsu is gearing up efforts to secure sufficient SAF feedstocks to meet its SAF output target of 500mn litres/yr by 2030, by utilising Hefa and alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) technologies. The company plans to start up its first 100mn l/yr ATJ plant at its Chiba refinery in the April 2026-March 2027 fiscal year. It is also considering Hefa SAF production at its Tokuyama petrochemical complex. Japan's demand for SAF is expected to continue rising, to meet its net zero greenhouse gas emissions in 2050 goal. Demand is expected to reach 1.71bn l/yr by 2030, with Japan's trade and industry ministry (Meti) planning to mandate that SAF make up at least 10pc of total jet fuel consumption by volume. Meti forecasts SAF supplies to be 1.92bn l/yr, but there is uncertainty because of feedstock availability and technology development. A number of Japanese firms are attempting to secure used cooking oil (UCO), as UCO is potentially a key feedstock in SAF production. But its supply remains limited. Around 380,000t of UCO was collected in Japan during the April 2021-March 2022 fiscal year, according to the country's federation for UCO recycling co-operatives, UCO Japan. Out of this, 200,000t was used for livestock feed, mostly for chicken, while 120,000t was exported to mainly Europe. To ensure a stable supply of SAF feedstocks, the Tokyo Metropolitan Government (TMG) is planning to conduct a feasibility study to produce SAF from general waste in Tokyo, or industrial waste from inside and outside Tokyo if securing suitable general waste is difficult. The TMG aims to select around three projects through a public tender, which is open for bids from 4-25 April, with a plan to provide up to ¥25mn ($163,169) of subsidies per project. By Motoko Hasegawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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