Iran warns ‘no guarantee’ nuclear talks will succeed
Iran's top negotiator in the ongoing talks to revive the 2015 nuclear deal has cranked up the pressure on his counterparts to "get the job done", warning that although the negotiations are nearing the finishing line, there is "no guarantee" that they will succeed.
"No matter how close we get to the finish line, there is no guarantee that we will get to cross it," Iran's deputy foreign minister Ali Bagheri-Kani said today. "This requires extra caution, perseverance, additional creativity and a balanced approach. To finish the job, there are certain decisions that our Western interlocutors must take."
His comments come amid growing optimism that an agreement to restore the now defunct nuclear deal, known formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), is within reach, although all parties engaged in the Vienna talks acknowledge that some key differences still need to be settled.
Yesterday Bagheri-Kani left Vienna for Tehran for further consultations with the Iranian leadership that could help overcome some of these differences.
"A few difficult issues remain. Work continues to resolve them," Stephanie al-Qaq, head of the UK's delegation to the Vienna talks, said before a meeting with Baqeri-Kani ahead of his departure.
The nuclear deal began to fall apart in 2018 when former US president Donald Trump unilaterally pulled the US out of the agreement and reimposed sanctions on Iran's economy and its key oil sector. At one point the restrictions drove Iran's crude exports down to well below 500,000 b/d, versus a pre-sanctions level of around 2.4mn b/d.
Tehran responded in 2019 by gradually ramping up its nuclear activities above the levels permitted by the deal. Iran began enriching uranium up to 60pc in April 2021 — well above the 3.67pc allowed under the JCPOA. As of December, Iran said it had enriched 114kg of uranium to 20pc, and 18kg to 60pc.
The negotiations are now centered on a draft text covering the four main pillars of a restored deal, namely the lifting of US sanctions, the scaling back of Iran's nuclear activities, the sequencing of these steps, and finally the mutual verification of each side's measures.
Iran is still selling oil in contravention of the US sanctions, exporting about 725,000 b/d in October-January, based on Argus tracking. Although a restoration of the deal in its original form could conceivably add around 1.3mn-1.4mn b/d to global supply, it is likely to take a period of 6-9 months.
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