Iraq secures Iran gas imports in preparation for summer
Iraq is to receive 50mn m³/d of gas from Iran during the four summer months, a supply it will remain reliant on for 5-10 years depending on finding alternatives, Iraq's minister of electricity Adel Karim announced on 11 May.
"It was agreed with Iran to supply Iraq with 50mn m³/d. Iraq needs Iranian gas for 5-10 years and those years could be reduced depending on finding alternatives," Karim told state news television, in a disclosure of details of the deal with Tehran.
Iraq announced on 29 April that it had reached an agreement with Iran for resumption of Iranian gas supplies, with Baghdad repaying debts owed to Tehran in instalments.
"Iran provides us now with 35 to 38mn m³/d of gas," Karim said, adding that "Iraq owes Iran $1.69bn for gas dues," which Baghdad will begin repaying in June.
Extended power cuts across Opec's second-largest oil producer have often resulted in unrest, particularly during summer months when temperatures rise above 50°C. The caretaker government of prime minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi has been making moves to prepare for the situation.
Iran has periodically switched off its gas supplies because of the accumulation of debt, heaping further pressure on Baghdad. US sanctions on Iranian oil and gas have complicated Iraq's payments of its arrears. But the US periodically gives Iraq sanctions waivers allowing it to pay for its imports from Iran.
Alternatives under consideration include a connection to the Turkish national grid to supply electricity to Iraq's second city Mosul and a link to Kuwait and Saudi Arabia to help power the south.
"The linkage with Turkey will be ready within a week as I believe it will reach 300MW per day," Karim said, adding that "there are negotiations with the Gulf Interconnection Authority next week so the link with Saudi Arabia will be in two phases of 500 and 1500 MW per day."
Iraq has also reached a tentative agreement with Qatar which will provide gas in the winter. "The Qatari gas will reach us via ships and could begin within months," Karim said.
The Iraqi minister expressed hope in reaching 25GW a day of electricity production with the arrival of gas flows from Iran. Iraq currently produces 21GW a day the minister declared, but the country needs 27.5GW a day to meet peak summer demand, according to the EIA.
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Mexican power outages enter fourth day
Mexican power outages enter fourth day
Mexico City, 10 May (Argus) — Mexican power grid operator Cenace issued its fourth consecutive day of operating alerts amid the heatwave gripping the country. Net electricity demand reached 47,321MW early today, with deployed electricity capacity slightly below at 47,233 MW, according to Cenace. Since 7 May, Cenace has declared emergency operating alerts as demand exceeded generation capacity during peak evening hours, prompting the grid operator to preemptively cut electricity supply across different states to maintain grid integrity. Power outages have lasted up to several hours in Mexico City and in major industrial states as power demand has outstripped supply by up to 1,000MW. Peak demand this week hit 49,000MW, just below last year's historic peak of 53,000MW during atypical temperatures in June. "We are very concerned about the unprecedented outages detected across 21 states, a situation that affects the normal functioning of Mexican companies," national business chamber Coparmex said. Peak electricity demand typically rises in June-July but temperatures this week have risen as high as 48°C (118° F) across some states. Mexico City reported a record high of 34.3°C on 9 May and high temperatures are forecast to continue into next week, Mexico's national weather service said. The inability of Mexico's grid to respond to increased demand is because of insufficient power generation capacity, non-profit think-tank the Mexican institute for competitiveness (Imco) said this week. "Despite the energy ministry's forecast that 22,000MW of new power capacity would enter service by 2026, only 1,483MW had entered service as of 2022" since late 2018, Imco said. President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's administration pledged to build new generation capacity, including five gas-fired, combined-cycle plants, but recognized this week that delays had contributed to the power outages. "We have an electricity generation deficit because some of the combined-cycle plants were delayed, but we are working on it and it will soon be resolved," Lopez Obrador said on 9 May. Lopez Obrador's government has also curtailed private sector power development during his administration. Mexico needs to upgrade and expand its transmission network, industry associations say. "In order to resolve this problem, we believe that a reopening of the electricity market to the private sector is imperative," Mexico's wind energy association, Amdee, said. Mexico has 87,130MW of installed capacity, with 39.5pc from combined-cycle gas-fired power plants and 31pc in renewable power, including wind, solar, hydroelectric, geothermal and biomass, according to the latest statistics from the energy ministry. By Rebecca Conan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Petrobras to expand free gas market footprint
Petrobras to expand free gas market footprint
Rio de Janeiro, 10 May (Argus) — Petrobras said today it will offer new types of natural gas contracts in Brazil's open market with more flexibile and competitive terms, but provided no details on the planned offers. The company also announced new commercial contract models for gas sales to state distributors, offering price reductions for current contracts of up to 10pc. The reduction will be connected to the distributors performance, Petrobras said, without providing more detail. The move by the state-controlled giant is significant given the 2021 gas market liberalization as aimed at increasing competition at every step of the value chain beyond just Petrobras. But progress has been slow in cutting Petrobras' market share, lowering prices, and increasing market transparency. The 2021 gas law covers the full lifecycle of natural gas, from production to transportation, processing to storage, and sales. A key provision aimed at promoting competition in the upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors, particularly transportation and distribution. Yet, three years later, there is little sign of downstream customers migrating to the free market, despite some moves such as those from Delta Geração, Acelen, Gerdau, Tradener, and others. The number of free market commercial contracts does not exceed ten, according to a lawyer specialized in the energy market. By Betina Moura Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Russia leads Opec+ output fall
Russia leads Opec+ output fall
London, 10 May (Argus) — Opec+ crude output by members subject to cuts fell by 440,000 b/d in April as Russia began implementing a fresh cut and Iraq and Kazakhstan curbed some of their overproduction. This saw the group's production fall to 34.11mn b/d, which was 140,000 b/d above quota, Argus estimates. Still, this was a marked improvement on the 230,000 b/d overproduction that it recorded in March. The lower production has not provided much support to oil prices, which have shed $5-8/bl in the past month. Several members of the alliance are implementing a new set of "voluntary" cuts that came into effect in January and, for now, run to the end of June. What Opec+ decides to do beyond this will probably be decided at a ministerial meeting in Vienna on 1 June, although the likelihood of a rollover has grown as oil prices have fallen. The big mover last month was Russia, whose output fell by 210,000 b/d to 9.29mn b/d. The drop is related to Russia's pledge to start phasing out an existing 500,000 b/d export cut commitment from April and replace it with a 471,000 b/d production cut by June. But the country remained 190,000 b/d above its new 9.1mn b/d target for April. And while the output fall shows Russia has made headway with its pledge to reduce production, sanctions on the country's oil industry and Ukrainian attacks on its refineries could affect its crude output in the months ahead. Iraq and Kazakhstan also reduced their output last month, while remaining well above target. Iraqi output fell by 40,000 b/d to 4.14mn b/d, mostly owing to lower crude use by the power sector. But this was still around 140,000 b/d above its target of 4mn b/d. Kazakhstan's output fell by 40,000 b/d to 1.54mn b/d — the second month in a row that its output has fallen. But it was also still around 70,000 b/d above its target of 1.47mn b/d. Compensation plans Iraq and Kazakhstan have each submitted plans to the Opec+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee detailing how they intend to compensate for producing above target in the first four months of the year. As things stand, Iraq says it will produce 50,000 b/d below quota in May-September, 100,000 b/d below quota in October-November and 152,000 b/d below quota in December. Kazakhstan's compensation plan starts in May with an initial cut of 18,000 b/d below target. It would then stick to its target in June and July before implementing a cut of 131,000 b/d in August, no cut in September, 299,000 b/d in October, 40,000 b/d in November and no cut again in December. The two countries' plans are dependent on a final production figure for April from secondary sources — including Argus — and could be adjusted after it becomes available. Nigerian production recorded a large fall in April, dropping by 100,000 b/d to 1.4mn b/d, the lowest since 1.28mn b/d in August 2023. This left the country 100,000 b/d below its target of 1.5mn b/d. Production was relatively uneventful in the Mideast Gulf Opec+ contingent. Saudi Arabia's output fell by 30,000 b/d to 8.97mn b/d, the UAE's fell by 20,000 b/d to 2.93mn b/d, Kuwait's dropped by 20,000 b/d, while Bahrain's production increased by 30,000 b/d to 190,000 b/d. All four members were more or less within their targets. Iran, which like Libya and Venezuela is not bound by production targets, boosted its output by another 20,000 b/d to 3.3mn b/d — the highest since October 2018. The gains have come despite US sanctions and Washington's attempts to crack down on the country's oil trade. Opec+ crude production mn b/d Apr Mar* Apr target† ± target Opec 9 21.32 21.54 21.22 0.10 Non-Opec 9 12.79 13.01 12.75 0.04 Total Opec 18 34.11 34.55 33.97 0.14 *revised †includes additional cuts where applicable Opec wellhead production mn b/d Apr Mar* Apr target† ± target Saudi Arabia 8.97 9.00 8.98 -0.01 Iraq 4.14 4.18 4.00 0.14 Kuwait 2.41 2.43 2.41 -0.00 UAE 2.93 2.95 2.91 0.02 Algeria 0.91 0.92 0.91 0.00 Nigeria 1.40 1.50 1.50 -0.10 Congo (Brazzaville) 0.28 0.25 0.28 0.00 Gabon 0.23 0.25 0.17 0.06 Equatorial Guinea 0.05 0.06 0.07 -0.02 Opec 9 21.32 21.54 21.22 0.10 Iran 3.30 3.28 na na Libya 1.22 1.18 na na Venezuela 0.82 0.85 na na Total Opec 12‡ 26.66 26.85 na na *revised †includes additional cuts where applicable ‡Iran, Libya and Venezuela are exempt from production targets Non-Opec crude production mn b/d Apr Mar* Apr target† ± target Russia 9.29 9.50 9.10 0.19 Oman 0.76 0.76 0.76 0.00 Azerbaijan 0.48 0.48 0.55 -0.07 Kazakhstan 1.54 1.58 1.47 0.07 Malaysia 0.35 0.35 0.40 -0.05 Bahrain 0.19 0.16 0.20 -0.01 Brunei 0.08 0.08 0.08 -0.00 Sudan 0.02 0.02 0.06 -0.04 South Sudan 0.08 0.08 0.12 -0.04 Total non-Opec† 12.79 13.01 12.75 0.04 *revised †includes additional cuts where applicable Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Floods stress Brazil energy sector vulnerability
Floods stress Brazil energy sector vulnerability
New York, 10 May (Argus) — Record flooding in Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul state over the past week underscores vulnerabilities in the country's energy system to extreme weather, which could also slow its pace of transition to cleaner energies. Nearly one week after record rainfall began flooding the state, power outages continue to plague it, with nearly 400,000 residents still in the dark. The flooding forced companies to suspend operations of critical infrastructure for the power sector, including three substations, 25 transmission lines, six hydroelectric plants and 11 power transformers. This led grid operator ONS to import power from Uruguay to meet domestic demand. With forecasts pointing to more rain, it is increasingly clear that it will take weeks if not months for the state to start returning to normal. The Rio Grande do Sul government estimates that the floods will cost the stateR19bn ($3.6bn?) . The tragedy in southern Brazil comes less than a year after a record drought struck the Amazon basin, which pushed water levels of the Amazon River and its tributaries to their lowest in 120 years. The drought reduced hydroelectric output from the region's plants and interrupted transport of fuel along key river corridors, leaving many households without power, because of the lack of diesel to operate generators used in off-grid communities. These crises highlight the country's failure to prepare for extreme weather and underscore the lack of investment in critical infrastructure, including in the energy sector. A study by the World Bank from 2023 warned of the need to upgrade the country's aging infrastructure and of future power supply risks. Brazil's large hydroelectric plants have been operating for an average of 55 years, according to the study, and need investments to boost efficiency and to limit the impact of extreme weather. A total of 11 hydroelectric plants in Rio Grande do Sul are being monitored, including six that present an elevated risk of rupture, such as the 28MW 14 de Julho plant that experienced a partial rupture last week because of the heavy rains. Authorities will now need to change their focus, which has been largely on limiting the impact of dry weather on the electricity sector, especially following the 2021 droughts, that resulted in expansion of thermoelectric generation. More recently, electricity regulator Aneel has been focusing on making power distribution and transmission networks more resilient to extreme weather, especially after downed power lines resulted in extended blackouts for some 4mn consumers in the city of Sao Paulo and over 1.3mn consumers in Rio de Janeiro. The sector is working to make transmission towers more resilient to high winds. Several cities and states in Brazil have launched plans to prepare for climate change, but the bulk of these plans focus on increasing investments in renewable energy and emissions reduction. Increasingly, these plans will also need to focus on mitigating risk from floods, heat waves and landslides. Brazilian energy companies are also behind the curve in their preparations for climate change. Only 13pc of executives in the energy sector that participated in a recent survey conducted by consulting firm PwC Brasil said they have assessed the impact of climate change on their financial planning. State of climate Brazil faced 12 extreme climate events in 2023, according to the World Meteorological Association (WMO). This included a tropical cyclone that hit Rio Grande do Sul last year and affected more than 340,000 people and left nearly 50 dead. The WMO blamed the extreme climate events in Brazil on the "double-whammy of El Niño and longer-term climate change." Last year, eight Brazilian states recorded their lowest July-to-September rainfall in over 40 years, it said. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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