EV sales doubled in 2021 but growth must continue: IEA

Global sales of electric vehicles (EVs) — including fully electric and hybrid vehicles — doubled on the year in 2021 to a record 6.6mn and have remained strong this year thanks to sustained policy support, the IEA said today, 23 May.

Of global car sales in 2021, nearly 10pc were EVs, the Paris-based energy watchdog said in its Global Electric Vehicle Outlook. EVs globally now total around 16.5mn, triple the amount in 2018, it said. Sales of EVs in China reached 3.3mn in 2021, EV sales hit 2.3mn in Europe and 630,000 were sold in the US in 2021.

Despite the rapid increase, the IEA's Announced Pledges Scenario — based on existing policy commitments — projects the EV share will fall short of what is required globally to reach net zero CO2 emissions by 2050. EVs will reach 30pc of total vehicle sales worldwide, but should reach 60pc to meet climate targets, the IEA estimates.

Increased EV uptake will put pressure on global supply chains that have been disrupted by Covid-19 lockdowns and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and on mineral supplies, the IEA said. The cost of minerals crucial for EV production, such as nickel, lithium and cobalt, has increased significantly in the past year, the IEA said while noting oil and products prices have also risen. This could mean EVs remain relatively competitive over the lifetime of a vehicle.

Countries must ensure "reliable and sustainable supplies" of these critical minerals, IEA executive director Fatih Birol said in late March.

The IEA also recommended countries maintain and adapt support for EVs, ensure uptake in emerging and developing economies, place more focus on starting the heavy-duty EV market, and expand charging and grid infrastructure. The organisation projects the global market value of electricity for EV charging will reach around $190bn by 2030 and said although power distribution may become more complex as EV numbers grow, "EV loads in major car markets should not pose significant challenges."

But a charging infrastructure rollout will need to rapidly speed up to reach over 15mn units in 2030, the report said. Globally, publicly-available charging points were at 1.8mn in 2021, according to the IEA.

Heavy-duty vehicles are more of a challenge to decarbonise, with the industry often looking to biogas over an electric alternative. Sales of electric medium- and heavy-duty vehicles increased in 2021, but these registrations represented just under 0.3pc of the total for that vehicle sector globally. The majority of sales are in China. The UK pledged in November 2021 that all new heavy-duty vehicles in the country would be zero-emissions by 2040.

Car manufacturers recently welcomed proposals to phase out new cars with an internal combustion engine (ICE). In a letter to the European Commission last week, a group of companies including carmakers Ford and Volvo, as well as Swedish utility Vattenfall, said no ICE cars and vans, including hybrids, should be sold after 2035. The commission has proposed the 2035 phase-out date for new ICE vehicles under its 'Fit for 55' proposal, which aims to reduce emissions by a net 55pc by 2030, from 1990 levels.

In the US, a group of investors and the Corporate Electric Vehicle Alliance last week called on the country's Environmental Protection Agency to strengthen its heavy-duty engine and vehicle standards, calling zero-emissions vehicles "a major economic opportunity". Alliance members include Amazon, DHL and Uber.

By Georgia Gratton