Biofuels Consulting
Tailored insights and market intelligence for the global biofuels and renewable fuel sector. Independent, transparent and data-driven analysis across HVO, SAF, bioethanol, biomethane and emerging fuel pathways, built on Argus' market-leading price assessments.
Commodity expertise behind every engagement
Argus provides independent, transparent and date-driven analysis of global renewable fuel markets. Out specialists apply market-appropriate methodologies to deliver clear forecasts and fundamentals based insights helping organisations understand supply, demand and pricing trends across established and emerging biofuels pathways.
The Argus consulting team leverages the broader Argus commodity expertise: market-leading price assessments, in-depth reporting on market-moving issues and regular market contacts. This ensures every project is conducted with a comprehensive understanding of commodity market, giving our consultants a unique advantage and a consistent, holistic view of the interplay between connected markets.
Six core advisory services
Feasibility and techno-economic analysis
Full feasibility studies for biofuels production assets, HVO, SAF, bioethanol, bioethanol and renewable gasoline. We assess market viability, offtake potential, feedstock availability, competition and long-term price outlooks.
Feedstock and product market analysis
Evaluation of global HVO/SAF feedstocks, UCO, tallow, vegetable oils and emerging next-generation materials. Supply-demand balances, trade flows and price projections across key regions.
Pricing and fundamentals forecasting
Forecasts for renewable fuels products and feedstocks from mainstream HVO and SAF to low-volume, niche products such as bioethanol. We analyse the drivers behind price: policy support, vehicle-market dynamics and technology.
Regulatory and policy insights
Assessments of frameworks including EU RED II/III, LCFS programmes, RFS/RVO markets and country-level mandates. Impacts analysis for blending obligations, carbon-reduction requirements and subsidy mechanisms.
Strategic and market advisory
Long-term market outlooks and scenario modelling. We support strategic planning for market entry, diversification, or transition to renewable fuels.
Valuation and due diligence
Independent commercial and technical due diligence for biofuels and biomethane assets and portfolios. We evaluable feedstock availability, offtake-market exposure, pricing risk and the regulatory factors that shape investment and transaction decisions.
We've delivered projects with a global scope
Our consultants have advised refiners, investors, energy companies, producers and technology firms across Europe and North America, combining global commodity coverage with deep, region-specific market knowledge.
View the mapCase studies
HVO investment feasibility study
Client request
A European refiner was evaluating investment in hydrogenated vegetable oil (HVO) production and required a detailed assessment of market fundamentals, feedstock economics and project profitability.
Approach
- Review of EU RED II legislation and national mandates
- Feedstock availability, pricing and sustainability assessment
- Production cost modelling and margin analysis
- Supply and demand outlook for HVO, SAF and other biofuels
- Evaluation of demand for high-blend renewable fuels
Results delivered
Argus identified the optimal product mix, target markets and expected returns while flagging key risks enabling a well informed investment decision on the HVO facility.
Biofuels strategy and market outlook
Client request
An international energy company required a long-term outllook on a renewable fuels markets to inform strategic planning and technology investment decisions.
Approach
- Analysis of global and regional biofuels legislation
- Long-term supply and demand outlook by fuel type
- Feedstock availability and pricing forecasts
- Trade flow analysis and competitive landscape review
Results delivered
The analysis helped the client assess market attractiveness across fuels and regions, refine its long-term strategy and mark informed decisions on production pathways and future positioning.
Biomethane portfolio commercial due diligence
Client request
An infrastructure investment group required independent due diligence on a portfolio of biomethane plants to assess feedstock availability, market exposure and investment risks.
Approach
- Availability and pricing of waste feedstocks and competing demand
- logistics and transport cost analysis
- Pricing outlooks for biomethane and co-products
- Demand outlook and regulatory review for offtake markets
Results delivered
Argus gave a clear view of risks and opportunities across the portfolio, enabling the client to evaluate viability and understand exposure to feedstock constraints, pricing volatility and regulatory change.
Rapeseed oil feedstock strategy and market outlook
Client request
A European producer of rapeseed oil sought to understand long-term demand prospects for its products as a biofuel feedstock and to identify priority markets and customers.
Approach
- Analysis of EU and national biofuels legislation
- Outlook for transport fuel demand and blending requirements
- Forecast demand for rapeseed oil across fuels and non-fuel markets
- Identification of key target markets and customer segments
Results delivered
Argus delivers a clear market outlook and strategic direction, enabling the client to prioritise high-potential markets and strengthen its commercial positioning within the biofuels value chain.
Cellulosic ethanol price forecasting
Client request
An investment-led project required a robust long-term price forecast for second-generation (2G) ethanol to support financial modelling and investment appraisal.
Approach
- Analysis of European biofuels legislation and market structure
- Benchmarking against alternative biofuels and fossil fuels
- Assessment of the market drivers influencing pricing
- Development of a price outlook and supporting methodology
Results delivered
A credible, independent price forecast with a clear rationale for its assumptions strengthened investor confidence and improved the robustness of the project's financial model.
SAF and LCFS/RINs market study
Client request
A sustainable fuels technology company required insight into the regulatory framework and support mechanism influencing SAF and renewable fuels markets.
Approach
- Review of RFS and LCFS programme, structure and risks
- Multi-scenario price forecasts for credits and fuels
- Assessment of regulatory changes and market implications
- Integration of policy analysis with supply-demand and pricing outlooks
Results delivered
A detailed understanding of policy-driven price formation and regulatory risk enabled the client to assess commercial viability and refine its market strategy.
Biofuels feasibility study
Client request
A non-EU government sought to assess the feasibility of introducing biofuels blending mandates aligned with emerging EU requirements.
Approach
- Assessment of second-generation biofuels technologies and infrastructure requirements
- Analysis of domestic feedstock availability and production potential
- Review of existing regulatory frameworks and barriers to implementation
- Development of legislative scenarios evaluating biofuels demand, plant capacity requirements and GHG reduction outcomes
Results delivered
Argus provided a clear assessment of the country's biofuels potential, implementation costs and legislative considerations, helping to inform future policy development.
Due diligence on HVO plant investment
Client request
An integrated energy company sought independent due diligence to assess the viability of investing in a new HVO production plant in Europe.
Approach
- Analysis of the European biofuels legislative environment
- Feedstock availability assessment and price outlook analysis
- Evaluation of hydroprocessing technology competitiveness versus alternative biofuels pathways
- Forecast pricing for HVO and differentials against key feedstocks and competing fuels
Results delivered
Argus delivered a comprehensive market assessment of demand, pricing, feedstock availability and investment risks, supporting the client's investment decision.
Market potential study for waste-based methanol
Client request
A consortium developing a renewable methanol facility required an assessment of demand, pricing and market opportunities before making a final investment decision.
Approach
- Analysis of RED II legislation and implications for renewable methanol demand
- Review of current and future sustainable methanol, cellulosic ethanol and renewable diesel production capacity
- Assessment of demand potential across transport, marine fuel and chemicals sectors
- Forecast modelling of sustainable methanol demand in road transport
Results delivered
Argus provided an independent assessment of market opportunities, pricing and competitive dynamics, enabling the consortium to evaluate the project's commercial potential.