The Argus Urea Analytics service connects you with industry-leading urea market intelligence. The service includes quarterly reports and data with 15-year forecasts for supply, demand, trade and prices, and one longer-term annual report with 25-year price forecasts (based on Long Run Marginal Cost analysis).

We empower urea market participants to make informed business decisions. Use the service to:

  • Inform your business plans: Get robust, actionable and industry leading insight on medium to long-term market developments and outlook
  • Mitigate risk to your business: Stay up to date with potential regulations, policy changes and market fundamentals challenges
  • Access comprehensive market data: Explore extensive raw data to assist your research and planning – and integrate the data into your models
  • Find your next big opportunity: Our proprietary datasets and expert insight help you identify and capitalise on future opportunities

Key features


Price forecasts: 15-years and 25-years

Quarterly 15-year and 25-year forecasts are provided for urea benchmark prices, including Middle East fob non US granular, Middle East fob all granular, Egypt fob (N. Africa granular), Baltic fob granular, US Gulf fob barge granular, Middle East fob prills, Black sea fob prills, Baltic Sea fob prills, Baltic fob prills, China fob prills, Brazil cfr granular


Supply and demand forecasts: 15-years

Quarterly 15-year forecasts and in-depth analysis is provided for urea supply and demand (includes urea capacity tracker and forecast, and crop prices analysis). Demand analysis includes country and region focus, covering urea, TGU, agriculture, biofuels. Short and medium-term urea supply/demand balance is included


Trade forecasts: 15-years

Import and export analysis and 15-year forecasts for key countries/regions including Morocco, China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Middle East, North America and India with a trade balance for selected key countries/regions


Cost curves analysis

The service includes Argus traded supply curves for the previous year, current year and 5 years ahead (fob basis) for all key urea plants, updated quarterly. A unique, interactive online cost curve tool to analyse and interrogate cost curve data is included as well.


Costs/inputs analysis and forecasts

The service includes quarterly analysis and forecast of European natural gas markets, North America gas markets, coal markets and crude markets


Project analysis/spotlight feature

Each quarterly issue of the service includes an in-depth project review (including full cost analysis, financial review and evaluation of cash flow) or spotlight features (including country focused investment cases)


Best-in-class methodology

Our key methodologies include our demand forecasting model based on calorie and crop forecasts to guide our view of future fertilizer consumption and our Long-Run Marginal Cost (LRMC) multi-factor model to assess the level of prices beyond the current investment cycle.


Quarterly reports

Narrative and graphical analysis of what is driving the urea market and how it is likely to evolve, ensuring you will be more confident in making critical decisions. Includes key insight on supply, demand, costs, trade and projects, with 15-year forecasts for supply, demand and prices.


Annual long-term report

Detailed, long-form analysis of all the historical and long-term urea market trends. Use the report to reveal the connections between underlying market drivers and use these insights to develop more robust strategies. Includes 25-year price forecast based on Long Run Marginal Cost (LRMC) analysis.

Customers that benefit

Market participants with exposure to the global urea market will find the Argus Urea Analytics service essential. Below are examples of clients that use this service:
  • Producers and suppliers  

  • Traders 

  • Energy and utilities companies

  • Shipping and port authorities

  • Procurement teams

  • Industry analysts 

  • Governments 

  • Financial institutions including bankers and investors 

  • Wholesalers 

  • Co-ops and retailers