USDA boosts soy view on biofuel policy changes

Market: Agriculture, Biofuels
11/07/25

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) today raised its projected US soybean crush for the 2025-26 marketing year following recent policy changes that are expected to increase domestic soybean oil demand for biofuel production.

US soybean crush is expected to rise to a record 69.1mn metric tonnes (t) in the 2025-26 marketing year, the USDA said Friday in its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (Wasde) report, up by 1.36mn t from the June report. The latest forecast marks a 5pc increase from volume projected for the 2024-25 marketing year.

The higher outlook for soybean crush was driven by a substantial increase in anticipated soybean oil use for biofuel production, which the USDA places at 7.03mn t for the marketing year ahead, up by 27pc from the volume expected for the current marketing year.

The increased biofuel use outlook follows US policy changes that significantly strengthen support for biofuels made from domestically produced feedstocks through changes to the 45Z biofuels tax credit and Renewable Identification Number credits generated through the Renewable Fuel Standard. The US is also proposing to require record biofuel blending into the US fuel supply over the next two years, including unexpectedly strong quotas for biomass-based diesel.

With the increase in soybean crush, USDA expects domestic soybean oil production will rise to a record 13.6mn t in 2025-26, up by 4.1pc from the current marketing year. Additionally, the USDA revised higher its expectation for soybean oil imports in 2025-26 to 200,000t, up by 13pc from the current marketing year.

Following an elevated export rate over the first half of the current marketing year, US soybean oil exports are projected to collapse in 2025-26, down by 73pc from the current marketing year to 318,000t. The reduction in exports, in combination with increased supply, is projected to exceed the gains in biofuel demand, increasing stocks to 758,000t by the end of the 2025-26 marketing year, up by 15pc from the inventory level projected for the end of 2024-25.

Soybean meal supplies swell

The jump in soybean oil demand is as also expected to result in a record level of US soybean meal production in 2025-26, up 4.5pc from 2024-25 to 54.3mn t, according to USDA.

Both domestic use and exports of soybean meal are projected higher for the next marketing year following the increased supply outlook. US soybean meal exports are projected to reach 17mn t, up 7.5pc from 2024-25, while US soybean meal domestic use is projected to rise by 2.8pc to 37.9mn t. Soybean mean stocks are projected to increase as well, reaching 431,000t by the end of 2025-26, up 5.6pc from the level projected for the end of the 2024-25 marketing year.

By Ryan Koory

July 2025 USDA projections
	2025-26	Chg from Jun	2024-25	Chg from Prior MY

U.S. soybean oil supply and use (mn t)
Supply
-Beginning stocks	0.66	-	0.70	-
-Production	13.59	0.27	13.06	-
--Extraction ratio (pc)	19.67	0.00	19.83	-
-Imports	0.20	0.07	0.18	-0.05
Total supply	14.46	0.34	13.95	-0.05
Use
-Domestic disappearance	13.38	0.73	12.11	-0.14
--Biofuel	7.03	0.73	5.56	-0.39
--Food, feed and other Industrial	6.35	-	6.55	0.25
-Exports	0.32	-0.45	1.18	0.09
Total use	13.70	0.27	13.29	-0.05
-Ending stocks	0.76	0.06	0.66	-
-Stocks-to-use (pc)	5.53	0.36	4.95	0.02
U.S. soybean meal supply and use (mn t)
Supply
-Beginning stocks	0.41	-	0.41	-
-Production	54.30	1.04	51.98	-
--Extraction ratio (pc)	78.54	-0.04	78.92	-
-Imports	0.59	-	0.66	0.09
Total supply	55.29	1.04	53.05	0.09
Use
-Domestic disappearance	37.90	0.41	36.85	0.09
-Exports	16.96	0.64	15.79	-
Total use	54.86	1.04	52.64	0.09
-Ending stocks	0.43	-	0.41	-
-Stocks-to-use (pc)	0.79	-0.02	0.78	-0.00
October-September markeing year
— USDA, Argus

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USDA boosts soy view on biofuel policy changes

Soybean meal supplies swell

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