Growing solar power capacity in Africa could increase the population's access to electricity and give it a long-term competitive advantage, despite the slowness of the climate negotiations process and the lack of international finance.
African countries have low responsibility for climate change and high vulnerability to its impacts. The continent has 19pc of the world's population but accounted for 3pc of global greenhouse gas emissions last year. At UN Cop climate summits, the next of which will take place in Brazil in November, sub-Saharan African diplomats typically ask developed countries to increase climate finance to help them adapt to climate change and support development. But finance is in short supply, as the US withdraws from international action and Europe feels the pinch of stagnating economies and increased spending needs at home.
The option for cheap, distributed and fossil-fuel free generation thanks to solar photovoltaic power could be a lifeline for Africa. Prices of solar panels have fallen in recent years, accelerating the pace of additions across the continent. Imports of Chinese panels rose by 60pc over the past year, to 15GW, according to consultancy Ember. The take-off has spread beyond South Africa, the region's largest power market, with 20 countries setting new import records in the 12 months to June.
Africa is the only major region of the world where a significant part of the population does not have access to electricity — around half of the continent has electricity access, compared with a global average of 91pc. Providing electricity to all is one of the UN's sustainable development goals for 2030. Progress towards this target has slowed in recent years, with the population without electricity in sub-Saharan Africa holding stubbornly high at 600mn. Cheap solar panels could be the shot in the arm needed to restart progress towards the goal, allowing Africans to finance their own electrification without depending on the whims of unreliable western donor states.
Always the sun
But beyond electrification for domestic needs, Africa's solar resource and seasonal demand pattern could give it a structural advantage over regions with less favourable solar potential in the long run. Regions nearer the poles face a seasonal supply-demand mismatch when relying on solar energy, with low output but high heating demand in their winters. Relying solely on solar would force these areas to build vast amounts of long-duration storage — but technologies for this are either limited geographically, such as hydropower reservoirs, or still in the early stages of development, such as hydrogen storage or advanced batteries. Wind power complements solar generation on a seasonal basis as output is higher in the winter, but building wind capacity has not seen the same cost falls as solar has in recent years, and the best wind resource is in difficult locations, driving up grid costs.
Solar output is less seasonal closer to the equator. Consistent daytime power could be attained year round through only a slight oversizing of solar capacity. And battery energy storage systems — another technology for which prices have tumbled in recent years — can be sized to provide power through the night until solar starts up again. Nairobi-based think-tank Power Shift Africa's projections for a 100pc renewables power mix in Africa by 2050 assume five times as much solar capacity as wind capacity across the continent. African countries dominate the list of those with the highest solar irradiation. A solar panel in Namibia produces twice as much power as one installed in Ireland. And while dreams of long-distance exports of renewable-derived fuels have faded as hydrogen hype has receded, the higher solar potentialand resulting lower levelised cost of energy could still provide a durable competitive edge for local industries.
