Eight core Opec+ members are likely to approve a further 137,000 b/d increase to their collective crude production target for December when they meet on 2 November, delegates told Argus.
This would mark a ninth consecutive monthly hike for Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Russia, the UAE, Algeria, Oman and Kazakhstan. It follows identical increases for October and November, as the eight continue unwinding a 1.65mn b/d layer of voluntary cuts.
The meeting takes place against a backdrop of newly announced US sanctions on Russian oil producers Rosneft and Lukoil. Whether Russia can maintain its crude output and exports under the new restrictions remains uncertain.
Oil prices rebounded from multi-month lows after the US unveiled the measures on 22 October, with front-month Ice Brent futures now trading around $65/bl.
Two Opec+ delegates told Argus it is too early to gauge the sanctions' impact on physical supply. The group has consistently said it could accelerate, pause or reverse the monthly output hikes depending on market conditions.
Views on the oil market remain sharply divided. The IEA forecasts a significant supply surplus in the fourth quarter and into 2026, while Opec expects a more balanced market, underpinned by strong demand this year and next.

