ARGUS Possibility Curves

Pairing unique data and market knowledge, with data science expertise

What is the probability that the crude oil price will be between $50 and $60/bl? Argus Possibility Curves estimate the possibility of what range oil prices will trade in and the balance of risk (asymmetry in the upside or downside risk).

Argus Possibility Curves have been developed using the most complete data set of actual deals and historical prices in US crude markets, as well as financial and macroeconomic drivers. The use of Argus crude prices in over 90% of physically-indexed trade and virtually all swaps contracts in the US Gulf coast and at Cushing keeps us closely aligned with the market, giving us qualitative insight to pair with our data science expertise.

How does it work?

Argus Possibility Curves

Argus Possibility Curves are developed with the leading feature engineering, feature selection and model diagnostics processes, building on decades of market expertise and machine learning algorithms.

Features of Argus Possibility Curves

  • Machine learning framework

    Our machine learning framework includes the use of linear and non-linear relationships, interactions between market drivers and the power to handle relatively small datasets. It also includes a suite of model diagnostics to dynamically monitor the performance of the possibility curves and better capture changes in crude markets.
  • The data and determining key drivers

    Our curves utilise Argus’ proprietary deals and pricing data, augmented with publicly-available fundamentals, financial and macroeconomic data filtered through our market-informed feature engineering process. The model’s key drivers are reassessed daily.
  • The output

    Our machine learning framework estimates an array of possibilities as a primary output. Key features of the output include more accurate possibility intervals for prices (for example, there is a 50% chance that the price is between $53.00/bl and $54.40/bl) and better quantification of balance of risk (for example, changes in the asymmetry of upside or downside risk based on prevailing market conditions).

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