Market Talks: Fertilizer Demand Accelerates

Purchases of fertilizers for Brazil's 2026-27 second corn crop, known as Safrinha, have accelerated since June, but prices remain higher than farmers expected and the extended purchasing window is keeping nitrogen imports below 2025 levels.

In this episode of Market Talks, listen to the discussion between Renata Cardarelli and Gisele Augusto, who produce the Argus Brazil Grains and Fertilizers report, on how Brazilian farmers are navigating the mid-year price declines in urea and ammonium sulfate, the supply risk created by the Middle East conflict and China's July 2026 ammonium sulfate export quotas, and the credit and weather factors shaping the outlook into planting.

Topics covered in this episode include:

• Fertilizer requirements already secured:
  By mid-August, farmers had already purchased around 40% of their total nutrients requirement for planting the 2026-27 second corn crop
• Lower nitrogen prices creating buying opportunities:
  Urea prices fell from a peak of $805/tonne CFR Brazil on 16 April to $480/tonne CFR by end June, and ammonium sulfate from $295/tonne CFR in early April to $193/tonne CFR in early July
• The Middle East conflict and China's July 2026 export quotas:
  The conflict continues to affect the urea market through strait of Hormuz transit uncertainty, while Chinese ammonium sulfate export quotas announced in mid-July are supporting prices and creating supply concerns in Brazil
• Preference for ammonium sulfate over urea:
  Ammonium sulfate offers a more attractive cost per unit of nitrogen for farmers, adds sulfur to the soil, is less vulnerable to hot weather and loses less nutrients
• El Niño weather risk and agricultural credit constraints: Changing rainfall patterns could delay planting and affect yields, while limited credit access and double-digit Brazilian interest rates since February 2022 continue to constrain fertilizer investment
• Market outlook and inventory replenishment strategy:
  Brazil imported around 2 million tonnes of nitrogen between January and August — nearly 21% less than the same period last year — and imports are expected to accelerate as buyers narrow the gap ahead of planting