Gisele Augusto: Hello and welcome to Market Talks, a series of podcasts presented by Argos addressing the events impacting commodities in the energy sector in Brazil and around the world.
My name is Gisele Augusto, I'm the specialist of fertilizers for Argus Brazil Grain and Fertilizers publication. And today I'm with Bruno Castro, also a fertilizer specialist for the publication. Hi, Bruno.
Bruno Castro: Hey, Gisele. Thanks for having me.
GA: So, let's start talking a little about how the market is going. We are starting the year. 2026 just started. What are we going to expect for fertilizers this year? What are the main concerns for the market?
BC: The scenario that we will have for the Brazilian fertilizer market in 2026 should be one of the main topics discussed in Fertilizer Latino Americano (FLA) Conference, which is organized by Argus and will be held in Miami between January 26th-28th.
Giselle, what topics do you think will be highlighted at this year’s FLA?
GA: Considering that we are still talking about postponement attitudes from farmers that started two, three years ago, people will mostly be discussing what the final volumes of urea and ammonium sulphate (amsul) for this 2025-26 second corn crop will happen. When farmers will come to these final volumes or for repeat demand after-planting and, also, what [are] the perspectives for soybeans [in] 2026-27. We already started seeing some deals happening since October, November 2025. So we are going to see more discussions about what are the main fertilizers they are going to use or what are the first phosphate fertilizer they are going to choose to start buying.
Also, they will discuss purchases for farmers. So if they are going to continue to postpone purchases in 2026 and on. And also the price tendences for the year, if prices will continue to see a firmness or they will be more volatile or even with a downward tone.
BC: Yeah, that's right. Talking about nitrogen-based fertilizers, we had Brazilian ammonia sulfating parts reaching a record high in 2025, as more competitive prices led buyers to opt for amsul instead of urea. Brazilian imports of amsul reached almost 20.8 million [metric] tonnes (t) in 2025, a 28pc increase compared to 2024. This positions total amsul imports in 2025 at approximately 100,000t above urea imports, which totaled 7.7 mn t, a 7pc decrease compared to 2024.
This shift towards low-coated fertilizers like ammonium sulphate was also observed among phosphates, right, Gisele? How did this happen?
GA: Yes, Bruno, it was very similar to what happened with nitrogen. Brazil usually imports a couple of phosphates. In the high-content phosphates, as we call, we have a MAP 1152 and TSP, usually with 46% of P2O5. We also have the end piece that usually comes from China, like the [nitro phosphate, or NP] 08-40 plus sulfur or without sulfur, or the [NP] 11-44 that usually comes only from this region. And in the low-content, we have the SSP that we usually import the 19pc or the 20pc of content. Brazil imported 3.2mn t of SSP in 2025, which was a record and also 20pc above 2024. For MAP we had the lowest level imported since 2016, around 3.1mn t, which is the same difference that we saw in nitrogen [at] 100,000t of difference between low-content and high-content.
For the first time, SSP is the main phosphate source for farmers and this is much related to availability of each product. MAP only have two regions sending to Brazil most of the time. Of course we have China, but China has a couple of issues with quotas. We rely mostly on Morocco or Russia. And for SSP, we have more ample variety of origins offering to Brazil. This helps farmers to choose their fertilizer and also the cost of each fertilizer, so MAP, TSP were at higher levels than expected by farmers, while SSP was cheaper for them.
But the thing now is that we need to look into sulfur prices. Sulfur is one of the raw materials to produce SSP and is an upwards trend. We are seeing prices reaching record levels globally and in Brazil with some prices above $530/t. This is impacting production costs at the origins and also in Brazil because we produce SSP in Brazil and we are seeing this being passed on to farmers and reducing demand so far. We saw a couple of deals happening in August, September, October 2025, and now deals are not happening anymore because of the high price of the sulfur, the raw material. Sulfur is something that we need to continue to look into 2026 because it is a byproduct. We can increase the production without increasing production of another product, so demand usually grows higher and faster than supply, so this creates a divergence in the global balance. And we have not only fertilizers using it but also metals and batteries, so we need to look into it and the cost of the raw material for the fertilizer production.
[Besides that], what should we be looking into in 2026, Bruno?
BC: I think the international scenario should play an important role in defining whether this low-content fertilizer trend will continue or not this year. China and Russia are important factors, not only because they are the two largest suppliers of fertilizers to Brazil, but also because they are among the largest global suppliers. Market participants indicate that China may restrict the export of high-content phosphates until August to meet its domestic demand. This has already raised the AP and MAP levels globally, and if it materializes it could solidify Brazil’s preference for purchasing SSP and NPs as the main source of phosphates. In Russia, which exported about 17pc of all urea bought by Brazil in 2025, is still embroiled in conflicts that has hampered production and flow of fertilizers to the export markets. This could further reduce global availability of urea and raise prices, which in theory would lead Brazilian importers to opt to amsul against urea as the main source of nitrogen.
In addition to these two powerhouses, we also have Iran and Venezuela, which are also important sources of urea to the Brazilian market and they're both experiencing geopolitical instabilities that could result in cuts in nitrogen production. We have an open scenario regarding the competition between low- and high- content fertilizers for 2026.
GA: Also, when we talk about this geopolitical scenario, we should remember 2025 [when] US tariffs [were] going on for most of the year. And for fertilizers, this would be an impact for potash mainly, if we talk about how Brazil could be hampered by it. Most of the year we had some uncertainties over how potash would apply in this tariffs and prices started increasing in early 2025. We saw monthly increases of $5-$10/t, and this firmness continued through the year and in the start of 2026. Despite the tariffs not being an issue anymore, US lifted sanctions against Belarus, which is a major producer of MOP and a major origin of the product to Brazil. This could change the trade flow, that's where we need to take a look into: how the trade flows will adapt in 2026.
BC: Nice. And Gisele, what do you think should be highlighted for the Brazilian market this year?
GA: If we take aside the geopolitical side that we already talked about and the postponement, I think another alert would be the credit. The credit risk is something that was also a main thing in 2025. Farmers had trouble accessing credit, getting money to finance the crops, to finance inputs. That's something we should continue to see in 2026. Of course, this can develop during the year, but [is] something that we need to take a look into because it's linked to this postponement. If farmers don't have the money to buy the fertilizer they will continue to postpone purchases, so that's something that we need to take a look into.
Thank you, Bruno, for participating with me.
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