Fertilizer Matters EP59: Ammonia hit by Europe’s gas crunch
Analysis of Europe’s ammonia market, as soaring gas prices and geopolitical risks take a toll ahead of winter
Ammonia production across Europe faces major consequences due to mounting pressure on European gas markets. Ahead of winter, record-low inventories, conflict in the Middle East as well as Russian and Ukraine, strong Asian demand and maintenance outages are all pushing delivered gas prices to their highest since 2022.
Hear Argus’ essential analysis of the impact of the gas market on Europe’s ammonia industry, covering ammonia production costs, prices, influence of CBAM and decarbonisation, risks to ammonia supply this winter, the prospects for Q1 2027 and food security implications.
Join Mike Nash, Senior Editor – Fertilizers and Lizzy Lancaster, Deputy Editor - Ammonia as they discuss these topics in the latest episode of Argus' Fertilizer Matters podcast series.
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Key questions answered in this podcast:
- How have soaring gas prices impacted European ammonia production costs and curtailments?
- How wide is the import-production cost spread and what is the implication for European production?
- Does CBAM make much difference in terms of protecting EU producers?
- What are the food security implications for Europe?
- Does decarbonisation offer a way out?
- What is the biggest risk to ammonia supply this winter – gas costs, logistics, or outright supply disruptions?
- Looking ahead to Q1 2027, is the ammonia market fundamentally bullish?
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