Viewpoint: Brexit weighs on UK rebar fabricators
UK rebar fabricators are concerned about the availability of Cares-approved material under the European steel safeguard, with Brexit potentially clouding the situation further once the transition period ends.
The UK has one sole domestic rebar producer, Celsa, which owns 40-50pc of the country's downstream fabricators. In previous years, the independent fabricators not owned by Celsa could source Cares-approved material from 17 mills in China. But this supply-source was closed when the European Commission introduced anti-dumping duties of up to 22.5pc in 2016.
Rebar imports to the UK from China totalled 279,438t in 2014 and 395,412t in 2015 — almost half the market — but this dropped sharply after the duties were imposed to just 6,836t in 2016.
When the EU quota system came into force in June, UK rebar importers were further restricted in terms of sourcing, especially when Turkey exhausted its quota in October and Russian and Ukrainian allocations reached critical levels this month.
The requirement to buy Cares-approved rebar applies only to the UK and Ireland, while other EU buyers are not bound by these same restrictions. "The issue is not the quota system per se, but the quotas combined with UK safeguards and additional burdens such as Cares. The problem is that legislators don't understand market nuances," one UK rebar importer said.
"Our overarching focus at Cares is to support all our partners in the steel industry, and to work with them to achieve continuous improvement in the quality and sustainability performance of reinforcing steel products entering the supply chain," Cares said, adding that the quota system was "a matter for the EU".
The fabricators not owned by Celsa prefer to source elsewhere when possible, given the company is their largest competitor in the downstream market. A Spanish-headquartered producer is another major supply source, but its offers are currently around £400/t delivered, while Turkish material is £30/t lower.
A Belarusian mill, which is subject to 10.6pc duties imposed by the commission in mid-2017, also has Cares-approval. The producer reportedly sold out all allocated rebar volumes until June 2020, but has access to the other countries quotas.
Imports from Belarus to the UK surged from 39,190t in 2017 to 61,099t in 2018 and to 96,966t in the first 11 months of 2019.
With a limited number of mills from Turkey and CIS, the two remaining countries with individual quotas remaining are Bosnia and Herzegovina, which have no Cares-certified mills. Moldova has one mill that lacks the flexibility to produce lengths suitable for the UK market.
Similarly, several Middle Eastern mills are Cares approved but do not provide the correct lengths required for UK construction. "We could source from EU mills and one Algerian mill, but they prefer to satisfy domestic demand first, which means we cannot depend on them," one UK importer said.
EU imports
British traders and fabricators are expected to return to new purchases soon, looking into material with March-April delivery.
There is still 175,000t available on the "other countries" rebar quota, with each country able to take a maximum of 30pc. This means that when the "other countries" quota opens up to those countries with individual quotas on 1 April, countries such as Turkey, Russia and Ukraine will be able to export around 40,700t of rebar each to the EU. But the Balkans region has recently purchased 40,700t of Turkish rebar ready to clear customs on 1 April, Turkey's entire allowance. Should others also clear customs, they could be hit with the 25pc duty.
Industry association Eurofer has launched a campaign to have the 30pc allocation per country reduced to 20pc in the commission's next review.
Turkish rebar exports to the Balkans have increased exponentially since 2015, going from 77,456t for the year to a high of 324,338t in 2018 and 271,602t in the first 11 months of 2019.
Transition period
Uncertainty surrounding Brexit and how the quota system will be applied to UK imports and exports is adding to sourcing issues.
The transition period for the UK will last until 31 December 2020, with an option to request an extension before 30 June 2020. All trade regulations will be revised gradually, and market participants believe some clarity with quota and tariffs system will be seen closer to the end of the summer period. This means the UK will be bound to the quota system until then, compounding rebar sourcing issues for importers.
Anticipating that quota issues with Turkish material will continue and prices may rise amid limited supply options, UK fabricators significantly replenished stocks at the end of last year up to March. In the meantime, cut and bent rebar surged by around £20/t over one month, to £495-500/t delivered, with construction activity remaining relatively stable.
Until the quotas renew on 1 July, it is unlikely any more rebar will be imported from either Turkey or Belarus aside from the bookings awaiting customs clearance on 1 April. This would lend support to European rebar prices because UK fabricators will have no other option but to buy from EU mills.
Related news posts
Liberty Merchant Bar to be 'mothballed', sources say
Liberty Merchant Bar to be 'mothballed', sources say
London, 7 May (Argus) — Liberty Steel will announce the mothballing of Liberty Merchant Bar (LMB) in Scunthorpe, England, this week, multiple sources told Argus . LMB has effectively been mothballed for a couple of years, as it stopped producing in 2022 amid cash constraints and problems with energy supply. The mill was powered by gas captured in the coke-making process at British Steel , but that supply has now stopped. Sources suggest the mothballing announcement is really a sign that the plant will not reopen, given it has been off line for so long. Around 135 staff are employed at the site — it is not clear whether they will be redeployed elsewhere in the group. Liberty recently said it has signed a new framework agreement with its major creditors, following the refinancing of its Infrabuild business in Australia, which would enable it to "consolidate its UK steel businesses under a new entity with a simpler structure, a strong balance sheet and greater access to third-party finance and investment". Liberty has been promising to publish consolidated financial results since 2019, but is still yet to do so. Under this consolidation, existing UK companies will transfer their assets and employees to the new entity, the company said. The change has enabled "development of a comprehensive plan that aims to take Liberty's electric arc furnace (EAF) melting capacity" at Rotherham to 2mn t/yr, the company added. The two existing furnaces at the site — N and T — have a capacity of 1.2mn t/yr, but have been running well below this. Only T is running at present, following prepayment from aerospace customers, and it has produced less than 7,000t so far this year. Liberty's eventual plan is to produce feed for longs and engineering bar from furnace N, feed for aerospace customers from furnace T, and to install a new EAF to produce slab for the company's plate and coil mills in Scotland and Wales. The company declined comment. By Colin Richardson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Global battery installation growth slows in 1Q: SNE
Global battery installation growth slows in 1Q: SNE
Singapore, 7 May (Argus) — The growth of global electric vehicle (EV) battery installations during January-March this year has slowed with stuttering global EV demand, data from South Korean market intelligence firm SNE Research show. Global EV battery installations during the first quarter rose by around 22pc from a year earlier to 158.8GWh compared with 36pc growth for the same period last year. Most top battery manufacturers have experienced lower growth rate ( see table ), with Japan's Panasonic and South Korea's SK On installing fewer batteries compared with a year earlier. China's Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) and BYD continue to spearhead the growth, albeit also at a slower pace. Consumers' preference for battery EVs globally waned as plug-in hybrid EV and hybrid EVs growth gained momentum because of factors including continued high interest rates and a shortage of charging infrastructure, according to SNE. Samsung SDI earlier this year pinned its hopes on a gradual EV battery market recovery in this year's second half when it expected benefits from lower interest rates starting to be realised. Lower interest rates could spur consumers spending and business investment. But US Federal Reserve policymakers earlier this month signalled that they are likely to hold rates higher for longer until they are confident inflation is slowing "sustainably" towards the 2pc target. The higher interest rates and lower residual values of EVs given price cuts on new vehicles could push up EVs' monthly leasing terms, which are often financed, according to Dutch investment bank ING's senior economist Rico Luman and senior high yield credit strategist Oleksiy Soroka. The scaling back of subsidies in Germany will also weigh on EV uptakes, they said. The IEA has forecast that EV sales will continue to grow in most major markets this year but at a slower rate compared with 2023. Global EV sales this year are forecast to top 17mn, more than 20pc of total global vehicle sales. By Joseph Ho Global EV battery installations (GWh) Jan-Mar '24 Jan-Mar '23 1Q '24 y-o-y % ± 1Q '23 y-o-y % ± CATL 60.1 45.6 31.9% 32.9% BYD 22.7 20.3 11.9% 103% LGES 21.7 20.1 7.8% 43.6% Panasonic 9.3 10.6 -12.6% 21.8% Samsung SDI 8.4 6.2 36.3% 44.2% SK On 7.3 7.9 -8.2% 17.9% CALB 6.3 5.2 22.2% 26.8% EVE 3.6 2.3 54.7% 64.3% Guoxuan 3.4 2.7 22.1% 3.8% SVOLT 2.7 0.9 217.7% NA Others 13.4 8.4 59.2% NA Total 158.8 130.2 22% 35.8% Source: SNE Research 1. Calculated 1Q '23 growth rate using SNE Research adjusted figures 2. Used SNE Research 1Q '24 growth rate figures 3. Omitted 1Q '23 growth rate figure for "others" given SVOLT's likely in the list (making it an inaccurate comparison) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Japan’s Daihatsu fully reopens domestic auto operations
Japan’s Daihatsu fully reopens domestic auto operations
Tokyo, 7 May (Argus) — Japanese car manufacturer Daihatsu resumed operations at Kyushu and Osaka on 6 May and 7 May respectively, marking the full reopening of its domestic plants. Daihatsu produces around 400,000 units/yr and 6,000 units/yr at Kyushu in south Japan and Osaka in west Japan respectively, according to a company representative that spoke to Argus. Combined production at these two plants accounts for around half of its total domestic output. It suspended all its operations in December 2023 after it was accused of tampering with safety test results. Daihatsu partially resumed operations in February and March but the Kyushu and Osaka plants remained closed. The company's March output fell by 65.8pc from a year earlier to 30,453 units , although it recovered from 6,692 units and none in February and January respectively. The country's overall industrial production index increased by 3.8pc from the previous month, according to the ministry of trade and industry last week, mostly driven by a production recovery of passenger vehicles. By Yusuke Maekawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil unlocks relief spending to flooded state
Brazil unlocks relief spending to flooded state
Sao Paulo, 6 May (Argus) — Brazil's president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva signed a decree to ease relief spending to Rio Grande do Sul state, which has been hit with historically heavy rainfall and floods. "We are going to do everything in our power to contribute to Rio Grande do Sul's recovery," he said today after signing the decree, adding that was only the first of "a large number of acts" for the state. The decree recognizes the state of emergency in Rio Grande do Sul and allows the federal government to grant funding and tax waivers to the state without having to comply with spending limits. In addition, it makes rules for public authorities to contract services and purchase products more flexible. The decree still needs both senate and congressional approval — which should be hasty, as both the senate and house leaders were present at the decree's signing. It is still not clear how much money it will take to rebuild the state, chief of staff Rui Costa and planning minister Simone Tebet said. But the minister of regional integration Waldez Goez estimated that it will take around R1bn ($200mn) to rebuild the state's highways. Rio Grande do Sul has been hit with heavy rainfall since 29 April. The highest volumes reached the central areas of Rio Grande do Sul, with cities receiving rainfall of 150-500mm (6-20 inches), regional rural agency Emater-RS data show. The monitoring station of Restinga Seca city, in the center of the state, recorded rainfall of about 540mm. Rainfall in Rio Grande do Sul overall surpassed 135mm in most of the state, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). State capital Porto Alegre is expected to receive more rain later this week, according to Rio Grande do Sul-based weather forecaster MetSul. MetSul warned that parts of the Porto Alegre metropolitan area could remain uninhabitable for weeks or months. The floods have left at least 83 dead and 111 missing, according to the state government. An additional 130,000 people have been displaced from their homes. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Business intelligence reports
Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.
Learn more