Weak steel demand drives Japan scrap exports in 1Q
Japanese ferrous scrap exports rose by over a third on the year in the first quarter, driven by weak domestic demand as mills ramped down in response to a sluggish steel market.
Japan's scrap exports rose by 36pc year on year to 2.41mn t in January-March, customs data show.
Exports in March fell by 2pc from February to 866,254t, but this was almost double the total in March 2019.
Covid-19 restrictions imposed in February-March depressed domestic steel demand as some manufacturing and construction activities halted. Steelmakers were forced to cut production to reduce their costs and scrap demand fell as a result, leaving Japanese suppliers looking to export markets to absorb ample supply.
Japanese exporters offered material at competitive prices, displacing US supply in Vietnam and Taiwan.
Export market consolidates
The four largest buyers of Japanese scrap comprised 90.51pc of Japan's ferrous scrap exports in March, down by 1.68 percentage points from February.
South Korea regained top spot, accounting for a third — 285,580t, up by 1.7pc on the month. But South Korean demand for seaborne scrap is expected to fall in the second quarter as mills signalled plans to cut output. Mills will probably step up domestic scrap collections instead.
Vietnam had a 30pc share of exports in March, receiving 260,176t, down by 26pc on February, but up by 38.5pc on the year. Steel demand in Vietnam was weak and is expected to remain so in the near future. Mills have been unable to raise their domestic rebar prices because of weak demand.
Exports to Taiwan rose by 6pc from February to 112,929t, with Japanese scrap priced competitively against US material. Availability from US suppliers from March was limited as Covid-19 measures hit collection rates.
Japanese offers into Taiwan were mostly at a $10/t premium to US offers in late January-late February. This gave Japanese suppliers an advantage, given that container handling charges for US scrap exceeded $10/t. The Japan-Taiwan delivery time was also around half that for US-Taiwan shipments.
Exports to Bangladesh rose most sharply — by 53pc to 99,726 in March. First-quarter exports nearly trebled on the year to 208,267t. Strong steel demand meant Bangladeshi buyers were willing to pay higher prices for prime grade scrap.
Momentum fades
Japanese scrap exports are likely to fall soon, despite the state of emergency being lifted in regions apart from Tokyo, Osaka and Hokkaido on 14 May, because of tight domestic availability and lower global steel demand.
Many market participants expect any recovery in operating rates to be slow and see domestic scrap availability remaining tight, with Japanese suppliers extending lead times for their most recent export sales over the past week. They are no longer confident they can collect sufficient scrap to meet orders under a typical four-week lead time. Suppliers into Vietnam in the past week asked for the delivery period to be specified as July, rather than mid-June.
Global steel demand is not expected to rebound any time soon, as many countries remain under lockdown. And any recovery in usage by large consumers, such as the automotive industry, is likely to be slow.
Related news posts
Liberty Merchant Bar to be 'mothballed', sources say
Liberty Merchant Bar to be 'mothballed', sources say
London, 7 May (Argus) — Liberty Steel will announce the mothballing of Liberty Merchant Bar (LMB) in Scunthorpe, England, this week, multiple sources told Argus . LMB has effectively been mothballed for a couple of years, as it stopped producing in 2022 amid cash constraints and problems with energy supply. The mill was powered by gas captured in the coke-making process at British Steel , but that supply has now stopped. Sources suggest the mothballing announcement is really a sign that the plant will not reopen, given it has been off line for so long. Around 135 staff are employed at the site — it is not clear whether they will be redeployed elsewhere in the group. Liberty recently said it has signed a new framework agreement with its major creditors, following the refinancing of its Infrabuild business in Australia, which would enable it to "consolidate its UK steel businesses under a new entity with a simpler structure, a strong balance sheet and greater access to third-party finance and investment". Liberty has been promising to publish consolidated financial results since 2019, but is still yet to do so. Under this consolidation, existing UK companies will transfer their assets and employees to the new entity, the company said. The change has enabled "development of a comprehensive plan that aims to take Liberty's electric arc furnace (EAF) melting capacity" at Rotherham to 2mn t/yr, the company added. The two existing furnaces at the site — N and T — have a capacity of 1.2mn t/yr, but have been running well below this. Only T is running at present, following prepayment from aerospace customers, and it has produced less than 7,000t so far this year. Liberty's eventual plan is to produce feed for longs and engineering bar from furnace N, feed for aerospace customers from furnace T, and to install a new EAF to produce slab for the company's plate and coil mills in Scotland and Wales. The company declined comment. By Colin Richardson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Global battery installation growth slows in 1Q: SNE
Global battery installation growth slows in 1Q: SNE
Singapore, 7 May (Argus) — The growth of global electric vehicle (EV) battery installations during January-March this year has slowed with stuttering global EV demand, data from South Korean market intelligence firm SNE Research show. Global EV battery installations during the first quarter rose by around 22pc from a year earlier to 158.8GWh compared with 36pc growth for the same period last year. Most top battery manufacturers have experienced lower growth rate ( see table ), with Japan's Panasonic and South Korea's SK On installing fewer batteries compared with a year earlier. China's Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) and BYD continue to spearhead the growth, albeit also at a slower pace. Consumers' preference for battery EVs globally waned as plug-in hybrid EV and hybrid EVs growth gained momentum because of factors including continued high interest rates and a shortage of charging infrastructure, according to SNE. Samsung SDI earlier this year pinned its hopes on a gradual EV battery market recovery in this year's second half when it expected benefits from lower interest rates starting to be realised. Lower interest rates could spur consumers spending and business investment. But US Federal Reserve policymakers earlier this month signalled that they are likely to hold rates higher for longer until they are confident inflation is slowing "sustainably" towards the 2pc target. The higher interest rates and lower residual values of EVs given price cuts on new vehicles could push up EVs' monthly leasing terms, which are often financed, according to Dutch investment bank ING's senior economist Rico Luman and senior high yield credit strategist Oleksiy Soroka. The scaling back of subsidies in Germany will also weigh on EV uptakes, they said. The IEA has forecast that EV sales will continue to grow in most major markets this year but at a slower rate compared with 2023. Global EV sales this year are forecast to top 17mn, more than 20pc of total global vehicle sales. By Joseph Ho Global EV battery installations (GWh) Jan-Mar '24 Jan-Mar '23 1Q '24 y-o-y % ± 1Q '23 y-o-y % ± CATL 60.1 45.6 31.9% 32.9% BYD 22.7 20.3 11.9% 103% LGES 21.7 20.1 7.8% 43.6% Panasonic 9.3 10.6 -12.6% 21.8% Samsung SDI 8.4 6.2 36.3% 44.2% SK On 7.3 7.9 -8.2% 17.9% CALB 6.3 5.2 22.2% 26.8% EVE 3.6 2.3 54.7% 64.3% Guoxuan 3.4 2.7 22.1% 3.8% SVOLT 2.7 0.9 217.7% NA Others 13.4 8.4 59.2% NA Total 158.8 130.2 22% 35.8% Source: SNE Research 1. Calculated 1Q '23 growth rate using SNE Research adjusted figures 2. Used SNE Research 1Q '24 growth rate figures 3. Omitted 1Q '23 growth rate figure for "others" given SVOLT's likely in the list (making it an inaccurate comparison) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Japan’s Daihatsu fully reopens domestic auto operations
Japan’s Daihatsu fully reopens domestic auto operations
Tokyo, 7 May (Argus) — Japanese car manufacturer Daihatsu resumed operations at Kyushu and Osaka on 6 May and 7 May respectively, marking the full reopening of its domestic plants. Daihatsu produces around 400,000 units/yr and 6,000 units/yr at Kyushu in south Japan and Osaka in west Japan respectively, according to a company representative that spoke to Argus. Combined production at these two plants accounts for around half of its total domestic output. It suspended all its operations in December 2023 after it was accused of tampering with safety test results. Daihatsu partially resumed operations in February and March but the Kyushu and Osaka plants remained closed. The company's March output fell by 65.8pc from a year earlier to 30,453 units , although it recovered from 6,692 units and none in February and January respectively. The country's overall industrial production index increased by 3.8pc from the previous month, according to the ministry of trade and industry last week, mostly driven by a production recovery of passenger vehicles. By Yusuke Maekawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil unlocks relief spending to flooded state
Brazil unlocks relief spending to flooded state
Sao Paulo, 6 May (Argus) — Brazil's president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva signed a decree to ease relief spending to Rio Grande do Sul state, which has been hit with historically heavy rainfall and floods. "We are going to do everything in our power to contribute to Rio Grande do Sul's recovery," he said today after signing the decree, adding that was only the first of "a large number of acts" for the state. The decree recognizes the state of emergency in Rio Grande do Sul and allows the federal government to grant funding and tax waivers to the state without having to comply with spending limits. In addition, it makes rules for public authorities to contract services and purchase products more flexible. The decree still needs both senate and congressional approval — which should be hasty, as both the senate and house leaders were present at the decree's signing. It is still not clear how much money it will take to rebuild the state, chief of staff Rui Costa and planning minister Simone Tebet said. But the minister of regional integration Waldez Goez estimated that it will take around R1bn ($200mn) to rebuild the state's highways. Rio Grande do Sul has been hit with heavy rainfall since 29 April. The highest volumes reached the central areas of Rio Grande do Sul, with cities receiving rainfall of 150-500mm (6-20 inches), regional rural agency Emater-RS data show. The monitoring station of Restinga Seca city, in the center of the state, recorded rainfall of about 540mm. Rainfall in Rio Grande do Sul overall surpassed 135mm in most of the state, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). State capital Porto Alegre is expected to receive more rain later this week, according to Rio Grande do Sul-based weather forecaster MetSul. MetSul warned that parts of the Porto Alegre metropolitan area could remain uninhabitable for weeks or months. The floods have left at least 83 dead and 111 missing, according to the state government. An additional 130,000 people have been displaced from their homes. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Business intelligence reports
Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.
Learn more