Speak to a specialist

Register and we will customize a solution that meets your exact needs. When you speak to one of our experts, you may be qualified to sample our industry-leading products on a no-cost basis.

You can unsubscribe from these updates at any time. We manage your personal data in accordance with our privacy policy.
Generic Hero BannerGeneric Hero Banner
Latest market news

India’s DAP imports to rise in 2020, ease in 2021

  • Market: Fertilizers
  • 04/11/20

India's DAP imports are forecast to rise by 5pc year on year in 2020 because of production cuts on steady demand, but will slow in 2021 as India increases local production capacity, according to Argus Analytics.

The south Asian country's DAP imports are expected to reach 6.1mn t in 2020, up from 5.8mn t in 2019, as a result of increased farmer offtake and production cuts.

Domestic DAP sales in India have surged this year, hitting 8.7mn t in January-October, latest provisional data. This jump in offtake marks an increase of over half from 2019 levels at 5.7mn t in the period.

DAP production during April-September was 1.92mn t, down from 2.16mn t in 2019. DAP producers faced several issues that arose from the Covid-19 pandemic this year, including disruptions in logistics and distribution of raw materials and shortages in labour and bagging materials, which led to production cuts by around 40pc in April and 20pc in May.

Higher phosphoric acid prices in the fourth quarter of this year left producers with razor thin margins. The margin for producing DAP in India slipped to 465 rupees/t ($6.29/t) for the fourth quarter, according to Argus. This led to producers shifting production from DAP to NPKs and fertilizer companies importing more DAP.

A strong monsoon and increased sowing acreage kept demand stable this year, forcing producers to look to imports to meet domestic demand. The hike in Chinese DAP prices this year hampered India's import demand from China, pushing importers to diversify supply sources. Moroccan producer OCP's share in India hit 19pc as of August this year and has more than 1mn t DAP scheduled for arrival, up from just two shipments in 2019.

But DAP import levels are forecasted to fall to 4.9mn t in 2021 and further to 4.2mn t in 2022, as new capacity ramps up in the southern and eastern parts of India throughout 2021 and 2022.

Major producers PPL and MCFL are each expected to expand DAP/NPK capacity by 400,000 t/yr in 2022.

Argus Analytics is part of Argus Consulting Services, a division of Argus Media. The group's forecasts and analyses are separate and independent of Argus' news and price assessment business.

By Huijun Yao

Sharelinkedin-sharetwitter-sharefacebook-shareemail-share

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News
18/12/25

Indian local urea sales on track for record in December

Indian local urea sales on track for record in December

Amsterdam, 18 December (Argus) — Indian urea sales to end-users could reach close to 6mn t this month, which would set a fresh record for offtake in any month. It has been a strong start to sales so far in December, in what typically marks the peak consumption month for the winter rabi season. Domestic urea production is relatively stable at the equivalent of 2.6mn t/month, latest provisional data indicate. Urea sales were 5.2mn t in December 2024. The highest amount sold in any month on record was 5.4mn t in July this year . The country's urea stocks were around 6.3mn t in mid-December, down from 7.1mn t at the start of the month , the data show. The strong sales figures this month are likely to be the key driver behind Indian importer and supplier NFL's earlier-than-expected tender issuance on Tuesday , closing on 2 January and seeking 1.5mn t of urea for shipment up to 20 February. India is typically the largest urea importer, and its regular state-backed tenders are closely watched in the international urea market. The country has bought 9.23mn t of urea this calendar year through tenders. By Harry Minihan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Find out more
News

CBAM documents outline preliminary ammonia values

17/12/25
News
17/12/25

CBAM documents outline preliminary ammonia values

London, 17 December (Argus) — CBAM documents outline preliminary ammonia values Preliminary documents from the European Commission released today confirm details for the ammonia free allocations benchmark and country-specific default values in the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM). The documents outline that the ammonia free allocations benchmark is being revised lower to 1.522t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e), down from 1.57t, in line with leaked documentation seen last week . This will be subject to a 2.5pc reduction in 2026, lowering it to 1.484t. The documents are likely to be made official in 2026. The preliminary documents also confirm that the default emissions value for US ammonia is being revised to 3.44t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in 2026, with most other key supply regions to Europe in line with previous estimates. Algeria is valued at 2.10t CO2e in 2026, Trinidad is higher at 2.44t CO2e, and Egypt is 2.07t CO2e. The default emissions values apply if there are no verified emissions data available for the imported product. The default value for US anhydrous ammonia has increased because the production route for US ammonia has changed from natural gas to petroleum coke, which has resulted in the steep rise to the emissions value. The commission has outlined a 1pc mark-up for all country default values in 2026. Theoretical default costs range up to $196/t for ammonia supplied from the US into Europe, with Trinidad supply at $96/t, Algeria valued at $62/t, and Egypt at $59/t. This is based on the prompt emissions trading system (ETS) price of $100.35/t on 16 December. The Argus Fertilizer CBAM calculator can be accessed here . By Ruth Sharpe Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Mosaic halts SSP production in Brazil

16/12/25
News
16/12/25

Mosaic halts SSP production in Brazil

Sao Paulo, 16 December (Argus) — US fertilizer producer and exporter Mosaic has idled its phosphate-based SSP production in Brazil, following increases in sulphur prices. The company announced Tuesday the halt at its Fospar, in southern Parana state, and Araxa, in southeastern Minas Gerais state, facilities. Mosaic also suspended sulphur purchases. Mosaic may review the decisions after 30 days. Global sulphur prices are on an upward trend, as the metals and battery industries are also demanding the oil refinery subproduct. Prices in Brazil rose by almost threefold in 2025 to $528/t cfr on 11 December from $178/t in late 2024. Prices have been increasing especially since 20 February, when levels were at $192/t cfr. Sulphur prices have now surpassed the $525/t level from 2022, when the Ukraine-Russia conflict raised prices to their highest level since Argus began assessing the prices in 2012. In August-October, several SSP sales from Brazil's domestic production — which also encompasses Galvani and CMOC — were concluded at prices lower than the import levels, pressuring the fertilizer price down to $175-180/t cfr at ports. Prices fell to $255/t fob Paranagua, in southern Parana state, and $288/t fob Rondonopolis, in central-western Mato Grosso state, in October, the lowest level since 2023. Mosaic did not provide the production capacity data on the units. By Gisele Augusto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Mosaic pauses Esterhazy potash mining after fatality

15/12/25
News
15/12/25

Mosaic pauses Esterhazy potash mining after fatality

Houston, 15 December (Argus) — North American fertilizer producer Mosaic paused potash production today in Esterhazy, Saskatchewan, after a worker died in a mine collapse. According to Mosaic, a "fall of ground" incident took place at the K3 underground mine in Esterhazy, resulting in the death of one employee. No other injuries were reported. The producer's emergency response team was activated following the incident. The site is being secured and a full investigation is underway, Mosaic said. The Esterhazy site has a nameplate capacity of 7.8mn metric tonnes/yr of potash and three mines— K1, K2 and K3— with K3 completed in 2022. By Taylor Zavala Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

US-Belarus potash trade may soften MOP pricing outlook

15/12/25
News
15/12/25

US-Belarus potash trade may soften MOP pricing outlook

London, 15 December (Argus) — Potash trade between the US and Belarus is set to be reinstated after an absence of almost four years, following the lifting of US sanctions on Belarusian potash on 13 December with immediate effect — a move that could soften the outlook for global MOP prices as supply options increase. The relationship between the US and Belarus had started to ease earlier this year when Belarus agreed to release 52 political detainees from its prisons in exchange for the lifting of some sanctions on Belarusian flagship airline Belavia in September. This limited rapprochement generated talk among market participants of the possibility of a further lifting of US sanctions on Belarus, which could affect Belarusian potash. US sanctions on Belarusian potash , which is produced by state-owned Belaruskali and marketed by BPC, have been in place since 2021. But the announcement over the weekend has largely caught the market by surprise. The policy change could lead to a significant shift in potash trade dynamics, with implications that extend well beyond the borders of both countries. For the US, it would further diversify its potash supply chain, reducing its heavy reliance on Canadian imports and improve its negotiating position in ongoing tariff disputes with the country. For Belarus, regaining access to the US market opens up an opportunity to diversify export destinations and stabilise revenues for one its most vital commodities. Such changes could make the US a more competitive market in terms of pricing. At a global level, buyers that had previously stopped purchasing Belarusian potash will have more supply options and could use this as leverage to push down prices with their current suppliers. On the contrary, a potential reduction of Belarusian MOP to other markets in favour of the US would likely see other markets become less competitive. But it is unlikely that the market will see such developments in the near term. It will take some time for US-Belarus trade to resume as administrative and financial processes still need to be put in place, and US potash buyers will need to be incentivised to buy Belarusian MOP over Canadian tons as some still refuse to purchase Russian product. What's in it for the US? The removal of Belarusian potash sanctions enables the US to possibly further diversify its sources for potash imports, signalling that this is more of a White House priority than market participants had originally anticipated. The US has limited domestic MOP production and is heavily reliant on imports, particularly from Canada. The country imported 13.5mn t of MOP for the 2024/25 fertilizer year, with roughly 85pc of it sourced from Canada and 9pc coming from Russia, according to US Census Bureau data. No other major potash import market relies so heavily on one source. Belarusian MOP has not touched US soil since February 2022, but in 2017-21 an average of 635,000 t/yr of Belarusian MOP was brought into the country. This policy change also comes just days after US president Donald Trump claimed he could impose severe tariffs on Canadian fertilizer imports, and the return of trade with Belarus may be used as leverage for the US in the current tariff war between the two countries. But the US will not be able to replace all of the 11mn-12mn t/yr of Canadian potash it needs with Belarusian product. It is also in line with Trump's strategy to secure the country's critical minerals needs. Trump included potash in the administration's list of American critical minerals this year and ordered the US government to fast-track permit reviews for critical minerals projects . The importance of potash was also highlighted when the White House spared a number of potassium-based fertilizer products — MOP, SOP, NOP, NPK and magnesium sulphate — from a raft of tariffs imposed earlier this year. In the US domestic market, traders appear largely unfazed by the new development. There have been strong MOP imports this year and there are currently healthy inventories of MOP across the Corn Belt. Additional volumes from Belarus could oversupply the market, pressuring prices downwards at a time when potash is already the most affordable nutrient domestically. But it is likely to take some time for Belarus to regain market share as it is possible that some companies may self-sanction against Belarusian potash — similar to companies self-sanctioning against Russian potash — while suppliers currently find prices in the US unattractive at $305-310/st fob Nola and alternative markets such as Brazil are providing a better netback, which could deter Belarus from promptly returning to the US market. Potash suppliers often switch between the US and Brazil, depending on which market is paying a premium. Moreover, the administrative processes to facilitate the return of Belarusian trade in the US will also likely take some time to be implemented. What's in it for Belarus? Belarusian potash is one of the most important commodities for the Belarusian economy and provides the country with a major source of foreign revenue. Following sanctions, Belarusian MOP practically disappeared from the global potash market in 2022. Yet Belarus regained its footing in the international market far quicker than expected and has managed to continue selling significant volumes of potash to the global market with the help of creative paperwork and lax enforcement of the sanctions. Russia played a pivotal role in this recovery. After Belarus lost access to the Lithuanian port of Klaipeda — previously the main export hub for Belarusian potash exports — from 1 February 2022, the marketer was forced to declare force majeure and find alternative routes to export its product. Today, most Belarusian potash exports flow through Russian ports, a shift that has increased costs and extended lead times. Argus estimates that Klaipeda typically handled 9mn-11mn t/yr of Belarusian MOP. This year, Belarus is on track to export more than 12mn t, surpassing pre-sanction export levels. Without access to the US and EU markets, Belarus has leaned heavily on markets such as Brazil, China and southeast Asia, often pricing aggressively to maintain market share. The reopening of US trade offers a chance to reduce dependence on these regions. The lifting of the sanctions will also make it significantly easier for companies to trade Belarusian potash around the world, except in the EU and the UK, where sanctions remain on Belarus. Importers that had previously stopped taking Belarusian MOP may now be open to trading with Belarus again. By having an additional supply option, buyers may find they have a stronger negotiating position with existing suppliers, which could put downward pressure on prices. Conversely, markets where Belarus has a strong presence could see a reduction of Belarusian volumes if product shifts toward the US, potentially making those regions less competitive. The policy change also comes at a time when Belarusian MOP capacity is increasing capacity, with the 2mn t/yr Nezhinsky MOP project scheduled for commissioning in the second quarter of 2026, and underscores Belarus' commitment to continue growing its footprint in the global potash market. By Julia Campbell and Taylor Zavala Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Related Products

Argus Africa Fertilizer

Argus Africa Fertilizer

Weekly price assessments, logistics analysis, news, commentary and proprietary data
Find out more

Argus Sustainable and Specialty Fertilizers

Argus Sustainable and Specialty Fertilizers

Weekly price assessments and cost calculations, trade trends, market commentary, legislation and policy insight, key current and historical data
Find out more

Argus Nitrogen

Daily and weekly price assessments, trade trends, market commentary, key current and historical data.
Find out more

Argus Brazil Grains and Fertilizer

Analytical and detailed coverage of Brazil's grain and fertilizer market.
Find out more

Argus North American Fertilizer

Daily and weekly price assessments, trade trends, market commentary, key current and historical data
Find out more
Generic Hero Banner

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more