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US to stay course on Venezuela sanctions

  • Market: Crude oil
  • 23/11/21

The US administration will stay the course on Venezuela oil sanctions after deeming the country's 21 November local elections as neither free nor fair, all but ending a brief flirtation with a more conciliatory policy.

Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro's government "deprived Venezuelans yet again of their right to participate in a free and fair electoral process," US secretary of state Tony Blinken said a day after Maduro celebrated the victory of his United Socialist Party (PSUV), whose candidates swept most gubernatorial and local races amid low turnout.

President Joe Biden's administration earlier this year said it would consider lifting some of the financial and oil sector sanctions in effect against state-owned PdV and the Venezuelan government if the elections showed "substantive, credible advancements" toward restoring democracy in Venezuela.

But even before the balloting began, US officials described the process as neither free nor fair and said the sanctions would remain in place.

Financial sanctions in effect since 2017 and 2019 oil sanctions have taken a toll on PdV's output. But Venezuela has found ways to adapt — crude output has surpassed 600,000 b/d, partly reflecting condensate imports from Iran that are helping PdV to dilute extra-heavy crude from the Orinoco oil belt. Venezuela was producing over 1.2mn b/d before the oil sanctions took effect.

Biden's administration has maintained its predecessor's policy of sanctions and recognition of opposition leader Juan Guaido as the country's interim leader, despite misgivings about whether the policy can achieve the US goal of forcing Caracas to hold competitive presidential and parliamentary elections.

The Treasury Department's sanctions enforcement arm, the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), in a September filing with a US court weighing how to auction PdV's US refining arm Citgo on behalf of creditors suggested that the end of the Venezuelan opposition-controlled National Assembly's mandate in January 2022 would also end Guaido's authority as interim president.

But some hawkish Democrats and Republicans in US Congress, sensitive to conservative voter sentiment ahead of November 2022 midterm elections, have called on Biden to maintain the fiction that Guaido is Venezuela's legitimate leader, even though other opposition forces are gaining ground inside the country. And that domestic pressure seems to have worked.

"We recognize interim president Guaido and his government," assistant secretary of state Brian Nichols told lawmakers last week. "We continue to work with them closely, and I do not expect any change in that regard."

The Venezuelan government withdrew from negotiations with the mainstream opposition in October. Ahead of the 21 November election, opposition divisions deepened, particularly over whether to participate in the 21 November elections as a mobilization tactic. US diplomats had to shield opposition candidates who participated in the process from criticism from more hardline figures who insisted on maintaining an electoral boycott.

"We commend the political parties and candidates as well as voters who decided to participate in this process despite its flaws," Blinken said.

After Guaido's formal mandate ends in January, the US is likely to maintain its recognition of him as the country's last legitimate leader, even though Guaido himself has dwindling support in Venezuela. This status quo scenario would reopen a policy gulf with the EU, which dispatched a mission to monitor the Venezuelan elections and has been more inclined to use carrots rather than sticks in dealing with Caracas.

The EU electoral mission gave an upbeat assessment of the vote despite noting shortcomings such as the failure to register some opposition candidates and the use of fuel and food giveaways to influence voters by members of the ruling party. The elections marked the return of "the majority of political parties and candidates to the electoral arena," EU foreign affairs commissioner Josep Borrell said today, expressing hope that its observer mission would help facilitate credible and inclusive elections in the future, including a presidential election.


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07/02/25

Trump planning rollout of 'reciprocal' tariffs

Trump planning rollout of 'reciprocal' tariffs

Washington, 7 February (Argus) — President Donald Trump is considering announcing "mostly reciprocal tariffs" on an undisclosed number of countries early next week, in a possible shift from a campaign plan to impose universal tariffs of 10-20pc against all imports to the US. Trump did not provide specifics on the idea, but said he would probably have a meeting on 10 or 11 February before making an announcement. The potential rollout of the reciprocal tariffs appears likely to take place after China's planned 10 February date to start collecting a 10pc tariff on crude, coal and LNG from the US that Beijing imposed in response to a 10pc blanket tariff that Trump has placed on Chinese imports. "I think that's the only fair way to do it," Trump said of his plan to "probably" pursue reciprocal tariffs. "That way, nobody's hurt. They charge us, we charge them. It's the same thing. And I seem to be going in that line, as opposed to a flat fee tariff." Trump has said he views tariffs — which he says is his "favorite word" — as a virtually cost-free way to raise revenue that will cut the US trade deficit and boost domestic manufacturing, without raising prices for goods in the US. But earlier this week, Trump delayed his plan to place an across-the-board 25pc tariff on Canada and Mexico just hours before it was set to take effect, as stock markets began to plunge on the threat of the start of a damaging trade war between the US and its two largest trading partners. The vast majority of economists say across-the-board tariffs are an inefficient way of raising revenue, with costs that would fall the hardest on low-income and middle-income US consumers already reeling from years of inflation. US Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer (D-New York) on 2 February said kicking off a tariff war with Canada and Mexico "makes 100pc no sense" and would raise costs for US consumers. Trump discussed his reciprocal tariff idea today during a press conference with Japan's prime minister Shigeru Ishiba. Trump said he wants to "get rid of" the US' trade deficit with Japan he estimates is $100bn/yr, primarily by selling the country US oil, LNG and ethanol. Trump said he also spoke with Ishiba about efforts related to the "pipeline in Alaska", an apparent reference to the proposed 20mn t/yr Alaska LNG project, which is expected to cost more than $40bn and would require building a natural gas pipeline across Alaska. Ishiba said it was "wonderful" that Trump had lifted a temporary pause on LNG licensing on his first day in office, and said Japan was interested in purchasing US LNG, ethanol, ammonia and other resources as a way to cut down on the US trade deficit with Japan. "If we are able to buy those at a stable and reasonable price, I think it would be a wonderful situation," Ishiba said through a translator. Japan is keen to increase its overall investment in the US to $1 trillion, Ishiba said. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Crude Summit:Tariff talk boosts TMX interest: Update


07/02/25
News
07/02/25

Crude Summit:Tariff talk boosts TMX interest: Update

Updates with details from Trans Mountain. Houston, 7 February (Argus) — The potential for tariffs on US imports of Canadian crude have driven shipper interest in exporting from Trans Mountain's docks on the west coast of Canada, as the pipeline's federal operator is weighing plans for expansions to boost the system's capacity by 200,000-300,000 b/d by the end of the decade. The 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline, which came on line in May 2024, boosted the total capacity of the Trans Mountain system to 890,000 b/d, opening new avenues for Canadian producers to reach Asian markets. Trans Mountain has seen a "flurry of activity" in booking TMX capacity since US president Donald Trump's administration announced its intent to slap tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, Trans Mountain senior director of business development Jason Balasch told the Argus Global Crude Summit Americas in Houston, Texas. "The last few weeks, all of January, there's been a lot of interest from people who had not yet shipped on the line yet," Balasch said. Those tariffs on Canada and Mexico were set to take effect on 4 February, but Trump this week put them on pause until early March, pointing to progress in negotiations. "The tariffs have opened all level of government's eyes to talk of expansions," Balasch said. "We definitely expected it to drive demand for the dock." The TMX line has run recently at about 80pc of capacity, Balasch said. The 200,000-300,000 b/d expansion of the Trans Mountain system could be completed within four to five years, Balasch said. That expansion would be accomplished mostly by adding pumping capacity to the system's two existing lines. There are no plans to add a third pipeline to the system, he said. "We are focused on the quickest and economical way" to "increase access to the tidewater", he said. "I think everyone sees an egress constraint coming," Balasch said. The unpredictable tariffs situation has put expansion under a "magnifying glass," but Trans Mountain has not yet shopped its plans to shippers. The dual-line Trans Mountain system connects the trading hub of Edmonton, Alberta, to the Westridge Marine Terminal (WMT) in Burnaby, British Columbia, but volumes also go to the Burnaby refinery and southbound to Washington state via the Puget Sound Pipeline. There were 24 vessels loaded at the WMT in January, translating into about 425,000 b/d being exported on Canada's west coast during the month, meaning there is some room to expand the dock's 630,000 b/d capacity. Incremental heavy Canadian crude from Trans Mountain could be destined for China, as the US west coast is capped out at 200,000 b/d, Matt Smith, lead oil analyst Americas at Kpler, told the conference. That would require China to likely scale back on crudes from other origins amid slowing demand, Smith said. "Over the last couple of years Chinese crude imports have essentially flat-lined as their refinery runs have flat-lined," said Smith. This week's delay suggests the tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports "are not going to come to fruition", Smith said. "There is a willingness to reach an agreement." By Chris Baltimore and Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Tariffs have ‘pluses and minuses’: ConocoPhillips


07/02/25
News
07/02/25

Tariffs have ‘pluses and minuses’: ConocoPhillips

New York, 7 February (Argus) — Threatened US tariffs targeting Canadian imports have both "pluses and minuses" for US independent producer ConocoPhillips which has production on both sides of the northern border. The company's primary exposure to tariffs would center upon sales from its Surmont oil sands operations in Alberta, Canada, into the US. "We sell around half of our Surmont liquids into the US on a mix of pipeline and rail," said Andy O'Brien, ConocoPhillips senior vice president for strategy, commercial, sustainability and technology. "But the remainder is actually transported to the Canadian West coast or sold in the local Alberta market." If tariffs were to be implemented, it is "pretty difficult" to say exactly who would carry the burden -- producers or buyers -- he added. "The refiners in the Midwest and the Rockies have less options to substitute versus, say, the Gulf coast or the west coast refiners," O'Brien said. The company's diversified portfolio would also help shelter it from some exposure. "If we were to see tariffs, we'd likely see strengthening differentials for Bakken, for [Alaska North Slope crude] and possibly even the Permian," said O'Brien. "So lots of moving parts." Like others in the oil industry, ConocoPhillips is looking at the potential to supply power to cater to the boom in AI data centers. "It's got to be competitive for capital, but it certainly looks like some growth opportunities potentially coming, and we're assessing some of those opportunities right now," chief executive officer Ryan Lance told analysts after posting fourth quarter results. Although the Trump administration has called on domestic producers to step up output, Lance said his priority was to drive further efficiencies in operations. "A lot of our focus and attention right now is on permitting reform," Lance said, and the need to build out energy infrastructure. Drilling approvals, rights of ways, and permits on federal land all slowed under the administration of former-president Joe Biden and there is an opportunity now to get back on track. "That just adds to the overall efficiency of the system and should lead to a more sustained plateau or growth in our production coming out of the Lower 48 in terms of liquids and certainly the growing amount of gas volumes that are coming as well," Lance said. "So it just creates a better environment for investment and more efficient operations." Full-year 2025 output at ConocoPhillips is seen in the range of 2.34mn-2.38mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d), which includes 20,000 boe/d of planned turnarounds. Fourth quarter 2024 profit fell to $2.3bn from $3bn in the final three months of 2023, as higher volumes were more than offset by acquisition-related expenses and lower prices. Averaged realized prices fell 10pc to $52.37/boe from the fourth quarter of 2023. Fourth quarter output of 2.18mn boe/d represented an increase of 281,000 boe/d from the same quarter of the previous year. After adjusting for acquisitions and dispositions, output grew by 6pc. As part of a $2bn divestment goal, ConocoPhillips has signed agreements to sell non-core Lower 48 assets for $600mn. They are expected to close in the first half of the year. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Crude Summit:Tariff talk boosts TMX pipeline interest


07/02/25
News
07/02/25

Crude Summit:Tariff talk boosts TMX pipeline interest

Houston, 7 February (Argus) — The potential for tariffs on US imports of Canadian crude have driven shipper interest in exporting from Trans Mountain's docks on the west coast of Canada, and the pipeline's federal operator is weighing plans for expansions that could boost the system's capacity by 200,000-300,000 b/d over the next four to five years. The 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline, which came on line in May 2024, boosted the total capacity of the Trans Mountain system to 890,000 b/d, opening new avenues for Canadian producers to reach Asian markets. Trans Mountain has seen a "flurry of activity" in booking TMX capacity since US president Donald Trump's administration announced its intent to slap tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, Trans Mountain senior director of business development Jason Balasch told the Argus Global Crude Summit Americas in Houston, Texas. Those tariffs on Canada and Mexico were originally set to take effect on 1 February, but Trump this week put them on pause until early March, pointing to progress in negotiations. "The tariffs have opened all level of government's eyes to talk of expansions," Balasch said. "We definitely expected it to drive demand for the dock." The TMX line has run recently at about 80pc of capacity, Balasch said. Trans Mountain is weighing a potential 200,000-300,000 b/d expansion of the Trans Mountain system, to be completed within four to five years, Balasch said. That expansion would be accomplished mostly by adding pumping capacity to the system's existing two lines. There are no plans to add a third pipeline to the system, he said. "We are focused on the quickest and economical way" to "increase access to the tidewater", he said. This week's delay suggests the tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports "are not going to come to fruition", Matt Smith, lead oil analyst Americas at Kpler, told the conference. "There is a willingness to reach an agreement." By Chris Baltimore Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Crude Summit: Argentina coexisting with TMX crude line


06/02/25
News
06/02/25

Crude Summit: Argentina coexisting with TMX crude line

Houston, 6 February (Argus) — Competition into the western US from the expansion of Trans Mountain's 890,000 b/d crude pipeline system in western Canada was not as severe as feared by Argentina producers. There is "still a place" for Argentina's Medanito crude on the US west coast, Francisco Villamil, executive trading manager at upstream producer Vista, said at the Argus Global Crude Summit Americas in Houston. Argentina producers were "pretty concerned" when the expansion went into service last May. At first, they felt price effects of the increased supply in the Pacific basin, but differentials stabilized and 50pc of TMX exports now go to Asia. The TMX system connects producers in Alberta to the docks at Burnaby, adjacent to Vancouver, British Columbia, and its capacity roughly tripled when the 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) went into service. TMX has been a popular outlet for shippers, both for selling to US west coast refiners and also for producers looking to bypass the US altogether and target Asian countries. Since the TMX expansion came on line, the US west coast has received about 159,000 b/d from Vancouver, or 48pc of total Vancouver crude exports, according to Vortexa. Most of the remaining Vancouver exports went to China. Argentina averaged a record-breaking 717,100 b/d of crude production in 2024, the country's energy secretary reported. By Eunice Bridges Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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