Australia declares La Nina event, faces wet spring
Australia has declared a La Nina event in the tropical Pacific, which combined with the negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM) indicates above average rainfall for the rest of 2022.
This is the third La Nina weather trend in a row, increasing the chances of above average rainfall across already saturated ground and filled water storage in east and north Australia. Models indicate that this La Nina event may peak in September-November and return to neutral conditions in early 2023, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) said. The 2021-2022 La Nina ended in June.
Heavy rainfall, storms, flooding and saturated ground in New South Wales (NSW) and Queensland has disrupted coal mining, railing and shipping, as well as coal-bed methane (CBM) development to supply gas to export LNG and domestic markets over the past two years. It also delayed the harvest in parts of these states last year, and caused large volumes of wheat and barley to be downgraded to feed grains from milling wheat and malting barley.
The presence of the IOD, which has been in place since June, will raise the chances of increased rainfall in eastern Australian from the La Nina during October-November.
The chances of increased rainfall in eastern Australia from the La Nina will rise in October-November by the presence of the IOD, which has been in place since June. The positive SAM will also increase the chances of heavy rain in eastern New South Wales (NSW) and far eastern Victoria, the BoM said.
A La Nina event is associated with lower or average rainfall in Western Australia state, where the majority of the nation's iron ore and export wheat are produced.
Australia's coal exports were down by 8pc in the July 2021-June 2022 fiscal year compared with 2019-2020, which was the last year that was not a La Nina year, and fell further in July. The drop was despite record-high thermal and metallurgical coal prices during 2021-2022, which would usually result in increased supplies if mining firms were not struggling with the effects of flooding and waterlogged pits. Some mining firms have built more water storage facilities over the past year, although they are starting from a position of more water on site than a year earlier.
A La Nina event is also often associated with increased likelihood of tropical cyclones making landfall in north Australia, with cyclones often closing oil and gas infrastructure, iron ore and coal export facilities, along with major rail and road corridors.
Related news posts
Japan's ferrous scrap exports slip in March
Japan's ferrous scrap exports slip in March
Shanghai, 29 April (Argus) — Japan's ferrous scrap exports declined sharply in March as import demand from Vietnam diminished, while the South Korean market remained bearish. Total exports in March retreated by 17pc on the month and by 10pc from the previous year, reaching 516,000t, according to Japan's customs data. Total exports dropped by 4.6pc on the year to 1.6mn t in the first quarter. Japanese scrap exporters encountered challenges because of declining overseas demand since March, as buyers became more cautious in the face of weaker-than-expected downstream demand recovery. Scrap exports will likely remain subdued in the coming months, according to trade sources. Vietnamese buyers were active in the seaborne market at the beginning of the year, but rising inventory levels and uncertainties in the steel sector outlook led them to step back after February. Exports to Vietnam in March dropped by 21pc on the month. The South Korean market is not expected to rise significantly in the near term as domestic scrap prices continued to fall, dropping by $50-60/t over the past three months. "South Korean buyers only fulfilled long-term contracts and stayed away from the spot market," a Japanese trader said. Exports to South Korea plummeted by 38pc to 470,000t in the first quarter. Exports to Taiwan dropped significantly by 41pc from the previous month as buyers were more focused on purchases of containerised scrap. Exports to Malaysia remained steady above 30,000t in March, while exports to the Philippines decreased from 34,000t in February to 13,000t. But a depreciation of the Japanese yen allowed exporters to offer relatively more competitive prices compared to other suppliers, with buyers price sensitive given a sluggish steel market. The yen started to weaken in March, reaching above ¥155:$1 at the end of April from $146.8:$1 in mid-March. Japan ferrous scrap exports (t) Country March % ± vs Feb % ± vs Mar '23 Jan-Mar % ± on year Vietnam 210,014 -20.7 20.7 683,821 48.0 South Korea 156,851 -9.8 -32.2 469,644 -38.1 Bangladesh 43,755 13.8 N/A 91,205 79.0 Taiwan 35,329 -40.8 -62.8 140,755 -28.8 Others 70,023 -20.6 -7.2 213,587 3.0 Total 515,971 -17.4 -10.4 1,599,011 -4.6 Source: Japan customs Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
BP inks another LNG deal with Korea's Kogas: Correction
BP inks another LNG deal with Korea's Kogas: Correction
Corrects total volume of LNG supplied in paragraph 2 Singapore, 29 April (Argus) — BP has signed another long-term LNG sales and purchase agreement with South Korean state-owned importer Kogas, the former said today. BP will provide Kogas with up to 9.8mn t of LNG over 11 years from mid-2026 on a des basis. But other details regarding pricing and the origin of the contracted supplies were not available. This most recent deal is in addition to the existing long-term sales and purchase agreement between the two companies that was signed in 2022. Kogas on 22 April 2022 signed an 18-year LNG purchase agreement to buy 1.58mn t/yr of LNG from BP that will begin in 2025. Australian independent Woodside Energy and Kogas in February signed a sales and purchase deal for term supplies of LNG to South Korea. The deal for 500,000 t/yr on a des basis will start in 2026 and run for 10½ years. Kogas may be seeking more imported term supply as the firm has increased its downstream contractual supply deals. Kogas signed a series of deals to supply gas to subsidiaries of the country's state-controlled utility Kepco in December 2023. By Simone Tam Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Singapore’s Jadestone cuts 2024 output guidance
Singapore’s Jadestone cuts 2024 output guidance
Sydney, 29 April (Argus) — Singapore-listed independent Jadestone Energy has cut its 2024 oil and gas production guidance, citing disappointing first-quarter group production. Jadestone said the impact of planned and unplanned downtime across its portfolio resulted in it narrowing its guidance from 20,000-23,000 bl of oil equivalent (boe/d) to 20,000-22,000 boe/d in its results for 2023 published on 29 April. Average production for January-March was 17,200 boe/d, which Jadestone said reflected the impact on its Australian assets, including the 6,000 b/d Montara oil field, of an active cyclone season at the start of 2024. The firm produced 14,000 b/d in 2023, up from 11,500 b/d in 2022. But problems at Montara and lower realised oil prices resulted in a loss of $91mn in 2023 following a $9mn profit recorded in 2023. Jadestone's realised oil price of $87.34/boe in 2023 was 16pc lower than $103.85/boe a year earlier. Proved and probable reserves at the end of 2023 totalled 68mn boe, a 5pc increase on a year's earlier 64.8mn boe, mainly because of the acquisition of a 9.52pc stake in Thailand's Sinphuhorm gas field and increases at the Cossack, Wanaea, Lambert and Hermes oil fields offshore Australia and the Akatara gas field in Indonesia's Sumatra. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Australia’s QPM hikes gas reserves estimate
Australia’s QPM hikes gas reserves estimate
Sydney, 29 April (Argus) — The energy arm of Australian battery metals firm Queensland Pacific Metals (QPM) has announced its certified reserves have increased more than a third on previous estimates at its Moranbah gas project (MGP) in Queensland state. QPM Energy (QPME) reported a 38pc increase in its total proven and probable (2P) gas reserves to 331PJ (8.8bn m³) on 29 April compared with a March 2022 estimate of 240PJ, as it pivots towards its energy business and pauses spending on its proposed Townsville Energy Chemicals Hub (TECH) project . QPME's waste coal mine gas reserves will be developed along with 300MW of new gas-fired power generation at the firm's Moranbah facilities located in the Bowen basin, a metallurgical and thermal coal producing region. The company is also planning to build compressed natural gas and micro-LNG facilities to distribute gas to northern Queensland customers. The company will seek to increase its output by 25pc to 35 TJ/d (935,000 m³/d) by late 2024, up from October-December 2023's average of 28 TJ/d by drilling a further seven wells by the year's end. A rig has arrived on site for drilling the first well of its Teviot Brook South Well programme, QPM said on 24 April. Australian independent Blue Energy, which is developing the Sapphire pilot project with 59PJ of 2P reserves near MGP, said QPM has confirmed it intends on taking gas Blue makes available to the MGP, in line with an existing non-binding agreement signed in June last year. Blue and QPME's parent company QPM also have a separate non-binding deal for supply of 7 PJ/yr of gas over 15 years to the TECH project. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Business intelligence reports
Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.
Learn more