Generic Hero BannerGeneric Hero Banner
Latest market news

Survey: US crude exports poised for record year

  • Market: Crude oil, Oil products
  • 13/01/23

US crude exports are poised to hit record highs this year as US shale output expands and European countries seek to diversify their import slates. But even as Europe has become a key market for US crude, high freight rates for some tanker classes could inhibit the trade.

The EU ban on Russian seaborne crude imports from 5 December has left some eastern and central European refiners looking to replace up to 40pc of their traditional supply. Germany and Poland have also been promoting a plan to impose an EU-wide ban on imports of Russian crude to their countries along the northern leg of the Druzhba pipeline. Germany opted to stop importing Russian crude through the line on 1 January, even though such deliveries are exempt from the import ban. The 226,000 b/d Schwedt refinery has been testing US WTI and Mars since August. The refinery was operating at around 55pc of nameplate capacity in early January following the halt to Russian crude supplies.

Poland's PKN Orlen says it will turn to North Sea, Mideast Gulf and possibly US and west African crudes when its 72,000 b/d term contract with Russian firm Rosneft for Russian pipeline imports along the Druzhba line expires at the end of January. And it is considering term contracts for US crude imports if its pipeline deliveries are sanctioned by the EU. The US shipped an estimated 13-16 cargoes of crude to Poland last year, up from two in 2021, according to an analysis of customs data, as well as data from oil analytics firm Vortexa.

High freight rates for Aframax tankers because of the increased demand for US crude in Europe continued to erode export economics for loading in January but have recently started trending lower, this week hitting a five-month bottom. Cooling transportation rates have helped improve the arbitrage and renewed interest from European participants has kicked off the February US trade month with an active waterborne market. Arbitrage economics appear even more favorable if exporters opt to load larger vessel sizes, which are assessed at less than half the Aframax rates.

Record rates

US crude is already flowing at record rates to Europe. Exports there were an estimated 1.5mn b/d in 2022, only slightly lower than the amount shipped to Asia-Pacific last year, as EU refiners sought out new supply.

Total US crude exports averaged 3.61mn b/d in 2022, according to an analysis of data published by the Energy Information Administration and Census Bureau. That rate reflects a roughly 22pc increase over 2021 and is the highest on record since the US Congress first lifted decades-old restrictions on exporting crude in December 2015. US crude exports eased by 2.7pc in November but remained above 4mn b/d for a second month as global demand remained strong, while loading operations experienced disruptions.

The Texas port of Corpus Christi should remain the top US export port in 2022, owing to its plentiful pipeline connections to the Permian basin and favorable export economics. Two Corpus Christi-area terminals account for the lion's share of the region's exports: the Enbridge Ingleside Energy Center and the South Texas Gateway Terminal. Both terminals are capable of partially loading very large crude carriers (VLCCs) up to 1.6mn bl, about 80pc of their 2mn bl capacity. An ongoing project to deepen and widen the Corpus Christi Ship Channel, expected to be complete in mid-2023, would allow the terminals to fully load VLCCs.

Enbridge in 2021 acquired a large crude export terminal at Ingleside near Corpus Christi from Moda Midstream, providing a direct dock-connected path to load VLCCs, the most efficient vessel option for long-haul exports. In Houston, Enterprise Products Partners' Houston Ship Channel Terminal saw the heaviest crude export activity, although flows through the Magellan/LBC Seabrook terminal have also increased in recent years.

Houston-area crude exports could also get a boost from an offshore terminal that Enterprise hopes to build off the coast of Freeport, Texas. The Sea Port Oil Terminal, which won preliminary approval from President Joe Biden's administration in November 2022, would be capable of fully loading VLCCs.

US crude exports have also been supported by rising domestic production, coupled with firmer international demand. Total output averaged 12.05mn b/d in the third quarter of 2022, up by about 870,000 b/d, or over 7pc, compared with the same period a year earlier.

The EIA expects crude production from the top US shale basins to climb further in January, led by record output from the Permian basin, where primary export grade WTI is produced. Shale production is forecast to rise by roughly 90,000 b/d from December estimates to 9.32mn b/d in January, with Permian growth comprising about 40pc of the total.

Overall US output in 2023 is forecast to hit 12.41mn b/d in 2023, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said this week, surpassing the record 12.32mn b/d posted in 2019.

By Amanda Hilow and Chris Baltimore

Top 10 US Gulf coast crude export terminals mn bl

Sharelinkedin-sharetwitter-sharefacebook-shareemail-share

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News
19/02/25

UK Gulfsands Petroleum eyes return to Syria's upstream

UK Gulfsands Petroleum eyes return to Syria's upstream

Dubai, 19 February (Argus) — London-listed Gulfsands Petroleum plans to return to Syria's upstream as soon as sanctions on the country are lifted and "circumstances allow," the company's managing director John Bell said. "Sanctions discussions are occurring not only in the EU, but also in the UK and US," Bell told Argus . "In summary, we view these developments as generally positive. Gulfsands has always intended to return to its operation in Syria when the circumstances allow." Gulfsands holds a 50pc operating stake in two oil fields in Syria's block 26, in the country's northeast near the border with Iraq, an area long controlled by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Chinese state-owned Sinochem holds the remaining 50pc. Force majeure was declared in December 2011 with respect to the contract after the introduction of EU sanctions against Syria. The fields were producing 24,000 b/d at the time. Since then, control of the fields has been unclear at times. By 2017 Gulfsands said production was averaging around 15,000-20,000 b/d, although it added that was without its participation. Bell said the company can only return "if the current relevant energy sanctions in the EU, UK and US as revised and hence international companies are permitted to return to their operations, bringing with them vital investment, people, equipment and know-how." In January, the EU's high representative for foreign affairs Kaja Kallas said the bloc would begin easing sanctions against Syria within weeks , starting with economic and energy restrictions. More recently she said the EU would meet on 24 February to discuss the lifting of sanctions on Syria, and told Argus the prospect of this "is looking promising" albeit internal European politics could slow the process. Road to recovery Once a 600,000 b/d-plus producer, Syria's crude output has been on the decline over the past three decades. Just before the start of the civil war in 2011, production had was below 400,000 b/d, and by May 2012 it had fallen to 200,000 b/d, the Syrian government said. Today it is less than 100,000 b/d, with only around 16,000 b/d or so coming from fields in areas under the former Assad government's control. "At the moment, oil production in Syria is largely opaque, illicit, unsafe, destined for the black market and causing enormous environmental damage… [and] production volumes have decreased recently due to these unsustainable practices," Gulfsands' Bell said. Whether Syria can reverse this downward production trend "will depend on the approach taken by the new Syrian government," he said. If they properly leverage existing centralised government institutions and work with returning international energy companies, Bell said he could see crude output returning to not only pre-2011 levels, but even as high as 500,000 b/d "within several years." By Nader Itayim and Rithika Krishna Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Find out more
News

Green marine fuel uptake slowed by regulations: GMF


19/02/25
News
19/02/25

Green marine fuel uptake slowed by regulations: GMF

Singapore, 19 February (Argus) — The global shipping sector requires clearer fuel regulations for widespread adoption of green marine fuels, according to panellists at the opening session of the Argus Green Marine Fuels Asia conference on 18 February. Regulations will be a key driver of fuel adoption in the industry but unclear directives remain a barrier to extensive uptake, said Global Centre for Maritime Decarbonisation's (GCMD) director for research and projects Prapisala Thepsithar. The pricing outlook for low to zero carbon fuels will become clearer only after the global shipping market progresses on a consistent set of regulations. Buyers will have to work with regulators to ensure that the uptake of fuels will be compliant across the value chain, said Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO) regional manager Ashok Srinivasan. Shipowners and charterers would not want to increase bunkering of biofuels and subsequently discover it is not sustainable according to regulatory requirements, Srinivasan said. Market concerns such as fuel feedstock origin and production process, shipping infrastructure and technology, and vessel readiness were also discussed during the panel. The industry should strive towards regulations that are recognised as a global standard to be applied worldwide, said chief technology officer of energy and fuels at Maersk Mc-Kinney Moller Centre for Zero Carbon Shipping (MMMCZCS) Torben Nørgaard. But new regulations on alternative fuels must be aligned with existing ones, or it would be a challenge for the industry to comply, said Srinivasan. The market is looking ahead to the 83rd session of Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) for any potential announcements about global fuel standardisation from the International Maritime Organisation (IMO). MEPC 83 will be held on 7-11 April 2025. The shipping sector expects a multi-fuel future, but more effort and time will be needed to ensure scalable supplies and feasible pricing. Shipping has "no history of being a market maker" that drives energy consumption and the industry will have to look for opportunities in other energy sectors to aggregate demand and pass the cost to customers, said Nørgaard. Fuel pathways are shared across industries and scalability is limited unless there is widespread adoption, added Nørgaard. Current and projected fuel prices are "a major factor" in the uptake of different fuel types, said Srinivasan. By Cassia Teo Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Guyana unfazed by Trump’s ‘drill, baby, drill’ vow


18/02/25
News
18/02/25

Guyana unfazed by Trump’s ‘drill, baby, drill’ vow

Georgetown, 18 February (Argus) — Guyana, one of the fastest-growing crude producers in the world, sees little threat from US President Donald Trump's pledge to flood global markets with cheap supplies. Despite Trump's vow to scrap a slew of regulations he claims are holding back US oil producers, Guyana's vice president Bharrat Jagdeo does not expect there to be a "major supply response." "If the prices come down, as President Trump wants, then it would also make some of the existing operations in the US — particular with (hydraulic fracturing) fracking — it may make them not feasible," Jagdeo said on the first day of the Guyana Energy Conference and Supply Chain Expo in Georgetown, Guyana, on Tuesday. Guyana's low breakeven costs and the quality of its crude will help it to maintain a competitive advantage going forward, he said. The vice president shrugged off concerns over the oil market as concerns grow over waning demand from China, the top importer. He pointed out that ExxonMobil just started the approval process for its seventh and eighth projects in the giant Stabroek block offshore Guyana, where the discovery of oil in 2015 has transformed the economic fortunes of the tiny South American nation. "They (ExxonMobil) study the oil markets, they probably know the oil markets more than any government official," Jagdeo said. "Clearly they see in the future a demand for fossil fuel, and they believe that in Guyana we have a unique opportunity to supply that market." Demand for fossil fuels is likely to remain "relatively high" for the foreseeable future while renewable sources lag behind, he said. Guyana, located on South America's northern coast bordering Venezuela, Suriname, and Brazil, has become a fast-growing non-Opec supplier since oil was first pumped in 2019. Output has accelerated to 650,000 b/d from zero in the space of around five years. And gross output is seen growing further to 1.3mn b/d by the end of the decade as new projects come online. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

US court pauses refiner's biofuel case after EPA shift


18/02/25
News
18/02/25

US court pauses refiner's biofuel case after EPA shift

New York, 18 February (Argus) — A US federal appeals court has paused the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)'s rejection of a refiner's request for exemptions from federal biofuel blend mandates, with relief possible for two more refiners as the US reassesses policy under a new administration. A three-judge panel on the US 5th Circuit Court of Appeals last week granted a request from Calumet's 57,000 b/d refinery in Shreveport, Louisiana, to pause a recent EPA action denying the refinery relief from its 2023 obligations under the federal Renewable Fuel Standard. The stay will remain as the court continues reviewing the legality of EPA's rejection, issued in the waning days of President Joe Biden's administration. Under the program, EPA sets annual mandates for blending biofuels into the conventional fuel supply but allows oil refineries that process 75,000 b/d or less to apply for exemptions if they can prove they would suffer "disproportionate" economic hardship. The Biden administration denied these petitions en masse, though most of these rejections were struck down by courts concerned with the government's reasoning. During his first term, President Donald Trump was more generous with refinery relief, which in turn weighed on biofuel demand and the prices of Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits at the time. Though the 5th Circuit did not explain its decision, EPA had shifted course after the presidential transition, telling the court earlier in the week that it did not oppose Calumet's request for a stay and that it was reconsidering the refiner's earlier exemption petition. The agency said in other court cases that it would not oppose similar pauses on recently issued waiver rejections affecting Calumet's 15,000 b/d oil refinery in Great Falls, Montana, and CVR Energy's 75,000 b/d refinery in Wynnewood, Oklahoma. EPA's ambivalence makes stays more likely, leaving those refiners with little reason for now to enter the market for RIN credits. The agency still says it "takes no position on the merits" as its review of small refinery exemptions continues but the filings at least suggest the possibility of reversing prior rejections. EPA has not yet signaled a more substantive policy around how it will handle similar small refinery requests, which have piled up in recent months. There were 139 pending petitions covering ten compliance years according to the latest program data. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Shell starts construction of base oil unit at Wesseling


18/02/25
News
18/02/25

Shell starts construction of base oil unit at Wesseling

London, 18 February (Argus) — Shell has started construction of a Group III base oil production plant at its Wesseling oil refinery in western Germany, with commissioning scheduled by 2028, the company told Argus today. Two columns of 54 and 37 meters for the base oil conversion unit have been delivered and assembled at the site, Shell said. It announced plans to convert its Wesseling hydrocracker into a Group III base oil production unit at end of January 2024. The unit is anticipated to have a production capacity of 300,000 t/yr. Shell will cease crude distillation by March 2025 at the 147,000 b/d Wesseling refinery, as the company looks to reduce CO2 emissions. The base oil plant will receive vacuum gasoil (VGO) feedstocks from Shell's neighbouring 187,000 b/d Godorf refinery. European Group III prices have dropped on a persistent supply overhang. Argus -assessed prices for fca northwest Europe Group III 4cst with partial or no approvals fell by 23pc on the year to $1,020/t on 7 February. Suppliers in the Mideast Gulf target European buyers with ample spot supplies to capitalise on higher margins. Europe is the most attractive export outlet as it remains dependent on imports of Group III material owing to its smaller Group III production capacity in comparison to other regions. By Christian Hotten Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Generic Hero Banner

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more