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Australia considers carbon border adjustment mechanism

  • Market: Coal, Coking coal, Emissions, Metals
  • 15/08/23

Australia's federal government will investigate a new tariff on imports of greenhouse gas (GHG) intensive materials such as steel, aluminium and cement, as part of the government's new policies designed to cut emissions.

Energy minister Chris Bowen has promised to examine whether a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), similar to that under development in the EU, will help give equal opportunities between domestic and international producers of manufactured goods in hard-to-abate sectors.

"Carbon leakage undermines national and international climate action and has long been a key consideration in the development of climate policy across the world," Bowen said on 15 August. "Loss of domestic sovereign capacity creates broader economic risks for the Australian economy and clean energy transition."

The safeguard mechanism changes imposed from 1 July are designed to bring Australia's GHG output down by 43pc against 2005 levels by 2030, requiring major emitters of more than 100,000 t/yr of carbon dioxide equivalent to reduce emissions by 4.9pc/yr until 2030.

The government said the challenges faced by emissions-intensive and trade-exposed industries have been noted in its safeguard mechanism changes and a range of funding is available for vulnerable facilities.

Emissions-intensive, trade-exposed businesses excluding coal and gas have been promised up to A$1bn ($650mn) in funding, with A$400mn for industries such as steel, aluminium and cement that are required for renewable energy projects.

Employers' organisation the Australian Industry Group welcomed the announcement of the review. It said it will push the government to build credible markets for low-emissions goods as a long-term solution to carbon leakage, while adding any CBAM will need to minimise costs on business while respecting World Trade Organisation and bilateral trade accords.

"The global transition to net zero is clearly under way but different economies are moving at different paces and using varied mixes of sticks and carrots to get there," its chief executive Innes Willox said. "Every nation is keen to ensure that emissions and industry don't simply leak from one region to another based on uneven policies rather than economic advantage."

The final CBAM review report will be finalised in next year's July-September quarter.


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22/05/25

European Parliament adopts carbon border changes

European Parliament adopts carbon border changes

Brussels, 22 May (Argus) — The European Parliament today approved changes to the bloc's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) that are estimated to exempt 90pc of importers from the measure, linked to the EU emissions trading system (ETS), although a final legal text still needs to be agreed with EU member states. The parliament adopted by a large majority the European Commission's proposal, with a minor amendment to clarify that CBAM covers electricity importers but not power generated "entirely" in the European Economic Area (EEA) countries Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway and imported to the EU. These countries are covered by the EU ETS. The adopted text also confirms the start date for CBAM certificate sales as 1 February 2027, pushed back from 2026 previously, to "address significant uncertainties related to the year 2026". Parliament said the new de minimis mass threshold of 50t would exempt 90pc of importers from the CBAM. The commission designed the changes to continue to cover the bulk of CO2 emissions from imports of iron, steel, aluminium, cement and fertilisers. Most fertiliser imported to the EU is in the form of bulk shipments, which are well above 50t. Russia earlier this week launched a formal dispute procedure at the World Trade Organisation against CBAM as an "alleged export subsidy". By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Mexican GDP outlook dims on tariffs: IMEF


21/05/25
News
21/05/25

Mexican GDP outlook dims on tariffs: IMEF

Mexico City, 21 May (Argus) — Mexico's association of finance executives IMEF lowered its 2025 growth forecast for a fourth consecutive month, citing the growing impact of US tariffs on the economy. GDP is now expected to grow just 0.1pc in 2025, according to IMEF's May survey, down from 0.2pc estimates in April, 0.6pc in March and 1pc in February. The number of respondents forecasting a contraction in GDP rose to 16, or 37pc of the sample, from nine in April. While the US has granted some exemptions and discounts for Mexican goods meeting regional content rules, IMEF said the effective tariff rate on Mexican exports remains higher than that for Canada, Brazil, India, Vietnam and others. "We're already seeing the [tariffs'] impacts," said IMEF economic studies director Victor Herrera, adding that May trade data will likely show a sharp drop in Mexican exports to the US. Trade is also being hit by a screwworm outbreak in cattle that led to port closures last week and curtailed beef exports, which account for $1.3bn in annual exports. More automakers could relocate or scale back production in Mexico, Herrera said, after Stellantis confirmed plans to shift some operations to the US and recent reports Nissan may close one or both of its Mexican plants. In response, Mexico this week sent deputy economy minister Luis Rosendo Gutierrez to Tokyo to meet with Mazda, Nissan, Toyota and Honda executives. IMEF cut its 2025 job creation forecast to 200,000 in May from 220,000 in April. Mexico's social security administration IMSS reported only 43,500 new jobs over the past 12 months as of 5 May. Beyond trade, IMEF flagged uncertainty from recent constitutional reforms and the potential for a US tax on remittances as additional risks to growth. The group held its 2025 inflation forecast steady at 3.8pc, despite Mexico's consumer price index rising to 3.93pc in April from 3.80pc in March . IMEF noted concerns about a potential rebound in inflation later this year after the central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 9pc on 8 May — the third such cut in 2025. The group now sees the end-2025 rate at 7.75pc, down from 8pc previously. IMEF expects the peso to end the year at Ps20.80/$1, slightly lower than the Ps20.90/$1 forecast in April. The peso recently strengthened to Ps19.34/$1, though Herrera said this reflected dollar weakness more than peso strength. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Nations eye new climate ties including China without US


21/05/25
News
21/05/25

Nations eye new climate ties including China without US

London, 21 May (Argus) — The world's politicians are still working out how to deal with US president Donald Trump, but climate leaders will forge new, diversified relationships, with China likely to play a growing part, delegates heard today at the Financial Times Climate and Impact Summit Europe . Trump's move to rapidly roll back US climate and environment-related regulation was a shock, but in Latin America, "underneath, so far, things have not really yet shifted", Colombia's former environment minister Susana Muhamad said today. Latin American countries are likely to further diversify relationships, she added, noting co-operation agreements signed in Beijing between Colombia and China. Colombia joined China's belt and road initiative earlier this month. "The world is still grasping what Trump is doing", and countries are still forming new relationships, EU member of parliament and vice-chair of the parliament's environment committee Bas Eickhout said today. And the UN Cop 30 climate summit — set for November in Belem, Brazil — is happening early in the day in terms of those new relationships being formed in the climate space, he added. China will be in "the driver's seat in some way… or at least a co-pilot", founding director at Chinese NGO the Institute of Public & Environmental Affairs Ma Jun said. The world's biggest economies "need to play a role in the governance", he added. China and Europe have experienced many of the same pressures on climate policy, delegates heard. Although the "backlash" against some "green" policies started around two years ago, those pushing against such policy have been emboldened by Trump's election, Eickhout said. "Energy security has been elevated to the top priority in China", Ma said — although China has already reached some of its 2030 renewable energy targets. In Europe, "I think the entire decarbonisation agenda will continue", but it will be framed as a competitiveness and security agenda, Eickhout said. He also noted some softening from industry previously pushing back on "green" policy, given that Europe's relative predictability has been thrown sharply into focus by drastic changes set out by the US government. Muhamad pointed to the global need for a just energy transition. "If the transition does not bring higher equality, the transition will not happen", she said. Given that finance is crucial, "the influence of the US in the multilateral banks' decisions… will be critical", she added. By Georgia Gratton and Victoria Hatherick Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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IEA warns of lithium and copper deficits by 2035


21/05/25
News
21/05/25

IEA warns of lithium and copper deficits by 2035

London, 21 May (Argus) — The Paris-based IEA has warned that global deficits of copper and lithium by 2035 could be exacerbated in some regions owing to concentration of supply and refining, leading to a potential "Opec moment" for critical minerals. In its new Global Critical Minerals Outlook report, the IEA said lithium could see a 40pc deficit by 2035, even if all current projects proceed, while copper is expected to reach a 30pc deficit by the same year. "Diversification is the watchword for energy security, but the critical minerals world has moved in the opposite direction in recent years, particularly in refining and processing," the report's executive summary said. "The average market share of the top three refining nations of key energy minerals rose from around 82pc in 2020 to 86pc in 2024 as some 90pc of supply growth came from the top single supplier alone: Indonesia for nickel and China for cobalt, graphite and rare earths." In the lithium market, demand tripled from 2020 to 2024, and will triple again by 2035. By then, the electric vehicle (EV) sector will make up 90pc of additional demand while 95pc of future demand growth comes from battery applications: EVs, grid-scale energy storage and battery backup systems, reaching 3.7mn t LCE by 2035. Three countries — Australia, China and Chile — will control up to 69pc of lithium mining by 2030, while China is expected to control 62pc of refining by the same year. "China extracts only 22pc of lithium — but controls 70pc of global refining and 95pc of hard-rock lithium processing," the report said. The copper market is also expected to grow rapidly, supporting the energy transition, but underinvestment and dwindling resource quality will limit supply. Copper demand rises by 30pc by 2040 under the IEA's base-case (STEPS) scenario, up from 27mn t in 2024 to 34mn t by 2040. The IEA predicts a sharp deficit in supply by 2035, up to a 30pc deficit in primary supply. China is expected to dominate refining of copper, responsible for 47pc in 2030. The report said investment of up to $150bn-180bn is needed to keep pace with the global energy transition. "Despite strong copper demand from electrification, the current mine project pipeline points to a potential 30pc supply shortfall by 2035 due to declining ore grades, rising capital costs, limited resource discoveries and long lead times," the report said. By Thomas Kavanagh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Australia’s carbon credit supply up on waste issuances


21/05/25
News
21/05/25

Australia’s carbon credit supply up on waste issuances

Sydney, 21 May (Argus) — Australian Carbon Credit Unit (ACCU) supply surged on the month in April, because of strong issuances from waste methods, bringing total supply to just above 5mn units in January-April. A total of 1.99mn ACCUs were issued in April, up from 965,836 in March, according to data released by the Clean Energy Regulator (CER) on 21 May. Waste methods — mainly from landfill gas projects — accounted for 1.39mn, or 70pc of the total, up from shares of just 7.5pc in March and 5pc in February . Bioenergy company LMS Energy led issuances last month with 1mn ACCUs, followed by environmental market investor GreenCollar's subsidiary Terra Carbon at 185,870, as well as waste management firms LGI and Cleanaway at 107,414 and 84,175, respectively. ACCUs from vegetation methods accounted for 29pc of the total at 575,258 units in April. The share is the lowest since August last year, although the CER previously released fortnight data before switching to monthly figures in 2025 (see chart) . CER's latest data show 5.03mn of issuances in the first four months of 2025. The regulator said earlier this year that it expects to issue between 19mn-24mn ACCUs in 2025 , up from the record high of 18.78mn in 2024 . The strong issuances in April may have limited price gains last month. The Argus ACCU generic (no avoided deforestation) spot price assessments averaged A$34.35/t CO2 equivalent ($22/t CO2e) in April, up by A$1/t CO2e from March, although below A$34.50/t CO2e in February and A$35.45/t CO2e in January. Prices have continued to increase this month, closing at A$35.75/t CO2e on 20 May. The CER noted it started to publish new information in its project register on 21 May, beginning with the crediting period start and end dates of all projects and the permanence period start date of all sequestration projects. By Juan Weik ACCU issuance by method type (mn) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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