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Higher freight rates support vessel secondhand sales

  • Market: Agriculture, Coal, Crude oil, Freight, LPG, Oil products
  • 26/09/23

A rising spot freight market is supporting interest in secondhand dry bulk vessels and gas tankers this month.

In the week commencing 11 September, 13 dry bulk vessels, including one Capesize, were sold, according to brokers. Panamax and Supramax vessels led the way — five in total in the week. This came as freight rates for the vessels climbed in the spot market.

Rates for 60,000t Santos to Qingdao grain shipments rose by $174,000 in the week 11-15 September, while freight for 75,000t east coast Australia to south China coal shipments was up $22,500 in the same period.

Secondhand values for five-year-old Panamax ships were 2pc higher on the month, while values for 10-year-old Supermax vessels were up by 4pc on the month, according to Allied Shipbrokers.

Prices for 15-year-old Capesize ships posted the largest monthly jump, up by 8pc. Freight rates also rose for the larger vessel segment on the back of higher Brazilian grain exports in the Atlantic and increased coal demand in the Pacific.

In the tanker secondhand market, there were 22 tankers sold, including two chemical tankers and one very large gas carrier (VLGC) in the week commencing 11 September.

Greek LPG shipping firm Naftomar paid $73.5mn for the 8-year-old VLGC Saltram, according to brokers, as spot rates for the vessel class soared to record highs.

The key Ras Tanura-Chiba VLGC rate for journeys from the Mideast Gulf to northeast Asia increased by $61/t to $158/t between 29 August and 18 September— the highest since Argus began assessing it in 2003. Shipowners benefited from limited competition on the route since the rate's first sharp gain on 31 August, when it rose by $9.50/t in a single day.

By Matthew Mitchell and Yohanna Pinheiro

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23/12/25

Mexico's trade surplus widens in Nov

Mexico's trade surplus widens in Nov

Mexico City, 23 December (Argus) — Mexico's trade surplus widened slightly in November from the previous month, despite sharp declines in both exports and imports in the non-oil category. Mexico posted a $663mn trade surplus in November, statistics agency Inegi said, up from a $606mn surplus in October, though on lower overall trade volumes. Total exports reached $56.4bn, while imports stood at $55.7bn, compared with $66.1bn and $65.5bn, respectively, in October. The result contrasted with the $391mn deficit forecast by Mexican bank Banorte. Inegi attributed the wider surplus to an increase in the non-oil trade surplus to $2.84bn in November from $2.74bn in October, alongside a widening of the oil trade deficit to $2.18bn from $2.13bn. Within non-oil trade, manufacturing exports fell by 16pc to $52.1bn in November from the prior month, while automotive exports declined by 2.2pc to $15.8bn, following a 4.8pc increase in October. The US absorbed 79pc of Mexico's light vehicle exports from January-November, with Mexico supplying 17pc of total US auto imports over the 11-month period, according to Mexican auto industry association AMDA. The "others" component of non-oil manufacturing exports dropped by 20pc to $36.3bn in November, nearly erasing October's 23pc gain to $45.5bn. The cumulative impact of US tariffs on Mexican goods is becoming clearer. Mexican bank Banco Base estimates the US levied an effective 4.69pc tariff on Mexican goods through September — below the 25pc blanket rate due to exemptions for goods complying with the USMCA free trade agreement. "The low tariffs have allowed Mexican exports to continue growing, particularly computer equipment, which rose by 83.39pc year to date through September compared with the same period in 2024, with a tariff of just 0.17pc," the bank said. Those "contrast sharply with passenger cars, which face a 15.29pc tariff," which maintain expectations of 7pc annual export growth in 2025, according to the bank. Agricultural exports rose by 3.8pc to $1.4bn in November after increases of 7.2pc in October and 4.1pc in September. Oil-related exports totaled $1.55bn in November, down from $1.82bn in October, including $1.03bn in crude and $514mn in refined products on lower prices and volumes. Mexico's crude export basket averaged $57.66/bl, down by $0.84/bl from October and $8.09/bl lower compared with a year earlier. Crude export volumes fell to 597,000 b/d in November from 717,000 b/d in October, remaining well below the 1.088mn b/d exported in November 2024. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: Stable 2026 start for US steam coal

23/12/25
News
23/12/25

Viewpoint: Stable 2026 start for US steam coal

Cheyenne, 23 December (Argus) — US thermal coal markets are ending 2025 on a stronger footing than when they started the year, with producers expressing cautious optimism about 2026. Prices for most US thermal coal were at their highest levels since April-May 2023 in September and October. While steam coal prices have slipped in more recent weeks, they remain well-above year-earlier levels. US coal markets began to recover near the end of 2024, in response to a blast of colder-than-expected weather and higher natural gas prices. Coal-fired generation in at least some of the US continued to be above expectations through the third quarter of this year. This unanticipated boost offset lackluster seaborne coal pricing, leading US coal producers to focus their sales on US markets. Some producers expect to continue to favor domestic shipments over international markets in the coming year, given that US customers continue to be willing to pay more than international buyers. "We're still in negotiations for additional business next year," Core Natural Resources chief financial officer Mitesh Thakkar said on 6 November. "We certainly could increase some more volumes and get them exported. But I would say domestic is going to be year-on-year improved." The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is expecting coal-fired generation to decrease next year largely because of continued power plant retirements. But generation may still be higher than in 2024. Some market fundamentals suggest generators could run remaining coal units at relatively elevated rates during peak demand seasons. Profit margins for running coal units in December, January and the first quarter of 2026 have been running higher than year earlier levels. In some cases, coal-fired generation also has been more profitable than power dispatch from some natural gas plants. For example, in the first 12 days of December, Argus assessed the peak day-ahead spark spread for 10,000 Btu/kWh coal units at the Indiana power hub — a reference point for central portions of the Midcontinent Independent System Operator — at an average of $27.44/MWh, while the margins for 8,000 Btu/kWh natural gas units were $26.14/MWh. Natural gas units also had less of a profit advantage over coal units in peak month-ahead and peak season Indiana power markets than they had in the first half of December 2024. Similar economic dynamics are present in the PJM Interconnection and Electric Reliability Council of Texas. President Donald Trump's full-throated endorsement of the coal sector, his moves to claw back environmental regulations and his administration's efforts to delay coal-plant retirements are boosting producers' confidence about US coal consumption in 2026. US energy secretary Chris Wright has invoked emergency powers to extend operations at Consumers Energy's JH Campbell plant until at least 17 February 2026. Consumers chief executive officer Garrick Rochow said on 30 October company officials expect the emergency orders for the Campbell plant to continue "for the long term". Independent of federal action, some utilities also have delayed a handful of power plant retirements and conversions previously scheduled for this year. All told, about 6,000-6,500MW of US coal capacity is being permanently taken off line or converted to another fuel this year, a sharp reduction from the 9,300MW projected at the very beginning of 2025, information collected by Argus and EIA show. The plant units that have delayed retirement dates consumed 6.7mn short tons (st) (6.1mn metric tonnes) of coal last year and 4.7mn st in the first eight months of 2025, EIA power plant operating data show. More retirements are scheduled for 2026, but some market participants have expressed uncertainty about their plans for next year, wondering if the Department of Energy (DOE) also will order their facilities to stay open. So far, DOE has directed Consumers' Energy's JH Campbell plant, which was scheduled to retire in May, three 90-day extension orders. And on 17 December, DOE also ordered Canadian utility TransAlta to delay retirement of its coal unit 2 in Centralia, Washington, for at least 90 days. Wright has indicated he could issue further orders. Some utilities — including CenterPoint, Dominion Energy, Southern Company subsidiary Georgia Power and Santee Cooper — have indicated they may delay coal plant retirements and conversions scheduled for 2026 and later. Most of the delays are short term and tied to revised timelines for bringing other facilities on line or incremental electricity growth, including potential data center additions. CenterPoint in October cited both economic reasons and greater load growth forecasts for reconsidering converting unit 3 of its FB Culley plant in Indiana to natural gas by the end of next year. The outlook for US exports is certain. Competition to place coal in European and Asia-Pacific markets remains steady. Those conditions could sustain downward pressure on some US thermal coal export prices and demand. But producers have expressed some optimism about 2026 US coal markets, with many having filled all of their projected sales book for next year and layered in contracts that have deliveries going out into 2027 and slightly later. And many market participants are thinking that stabilization might well continue into 2026. By Courtney Schlisserman Prompt season coal to gas differentials $/MWh Coal versus gas prompt month differentials $/MWh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: Canadian heavy TMX crude to grow into Asia

23/12/25
News
23/12/25

Viewpoint: Canadian heavy TMX crude to grow into Asia

Houston, 23 December (Argus) — Heavy sour Canadian crude exports are likely to expand further into the Asia-Pacific market in 2026 as Canadian output increases and US west coast refinery closures weaken US demand. Around two-thirds of all Canadian crude exports from the 890,000 b/d Trans Mountain pipeline system were destined to Asia-Pacific year-to-date November 2025, with the balance heading to the US west coast. Just over three-quarters of the 375,000 b/d of Canadian heavy crude exports from Vancouver were destined to Asia-Pacific year-to-date November 2025, according to data from analytics firms Vortexa and Kpler. The balance out of the Trans Mountain system headed to the US west coast. This is up from a roughly 60/40 split in the second half of 2024 following the 540,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) startup in May of that year. US west coast customers received 80,000 b/d of heavy sour Canadian crude during the first 11 months of 2025, 25pc less than the second half of 2024. This is despite total heavy exports from Vancouver averaging 27pc higher this year so far. Heavy crude exports are expected to keep growing in 2026 as increased western Canadian production meets limited southbound pipeline capacity to the US. In January 2026, Canadian pipeline operator Enbridge rejected 13pc of heavy and light crude nominations on its 3.1mn b/d Mainline to the US as Alberta production surges in the colder months. But the Trans Mountain system has accepted all crude nominations since TMX came on line in May 2024 and the system has room to export more crude. Trans Mountain reported that the pipeline ran at 87pc capacity in the third quarter of 2025 . Canadian crude and condensate production is projected to average a record-high of 4.85mn b/d in 2026, 80,000 b/d above 2025 levels, according to Argus Consulting, a division of Argus Media. China thirst for heavy grows Any increase in exports is expected to head towards the Asia-Pacific region, specifically China. Chinese interest in heavy crude is expected to grow next year as refineries bring on line increasingly advanced cracking units to improve petrochemical yields . This increase in petrochemical output will come at the expense of road fuels, as rising electric vehicle use and low construction-sector activity hit Chinese gasoline and diesel demand. Heavy Canadian crude tends to be the most competitively-priced, unsanctioned option for Chinese refiners. Asia-Pacific buyers more generally have sought Canadian heavy crude as a substitute for restrained supplies of heavy sour Venezuelan Merey and Arab Heavy. Saudi Arabia's state-owned Saudi Aramco may be keeping more heavy crude for refining, while market confidence in Merey supply is weak following a US seizure of an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela on 10 December and the US declaring a blockage on Venezuela exports on 16 December. Meanwhile, shipments of Arab Heavy have dropped by 280,000 b/d to around 560,000 b/d this year, according to Vortexa data. As Asia-Pacific interest in Canadian crude continues to grow, US west coast demand will continue to fall. On the heels of Phillips 66 closing its 139,000 b/d Los Angeles, California, refinery, Valero is likely to shutter its 145,000 b/d Benicia refinery near San Francisco in April 2026. Valero is evaluating alternatives for its 85,000 b/d Wilmington refinery in Los Angeles. At the start of 2025, these three refineries made up 23pc of Californian refinery capacity, and combined took 30,000 b/d of Cold Lake during January-June 2025, according to EIA data. As available Canadian crude supplies grow, the ability to fully load Aframax vessels at the Westridge Marine Terminal in British Colombia will allow increased volumes to be exported. Dredging at the terminal is set to be completed by late 2026 or early 2027. Draft restrictions limit most Aframax vessels to around 550,000 bl at the terminal for heavy crude, and 600,000 bl for some lighter crudes. Post-dredging, those same ships could carry around 700,000-750,000 bl. In the long term, Trans Mountain is looking to boost pipeline flows to meet the increased shipping capacity, including the use of drag-reducing agents that should add another 85,000-90,000 b/d by 2027 to pipeline capacity, according to Trans Mountain. By John Cordner Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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UK refiners seek unused CO2 allowances after closures

23/12/25
News
23/12/25

UK refiners seek unused CO2 allowances after closures

London, 23 December (Argus) — UK downstream association Fuels Industry UK has urged the government to reallocate unused free CO2 allowances from two recently closed refineries to help remaining plants cope with rising emissions compliance costs. The group wants allowances granted under the UK Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) for the 150,000 b/d Grangemouth and 105,700 b/d Lindsey refineries to be redistributed. Each allowance permits the holder to emit one tonne of CO2 equivalent. Grangemouth and Lindsey were allocated 441,925 and 541,475 allowances for 2025, respectively. It is unclear how many remain after their closures in April and August. The association warned the sector "may not survive that long" without temporary support, citing carbon costs that exceed those faced by overseas competitors until the UK's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) takes effect. ExxonMobil's 270,000 b/d Fawley refinery — the UK's largest — will spend $70mn-80mn on carbon costs this year, rising to $150mn within five years, the company's UK chair Paul Greenwood told MPs during an Energy Security and Net Zero Committee hearing in October. Fuels Industry UK chief executive Elizabeth de Jong also addressed the committee, highlighting broader cost pressures. It remains unclear whether refined fuels will be covered by the UK CBAM, which starts in January 2027. Fuels Industry UK is seeking confirmation that they be included from January 2028, and it wants additional free UK ETS allowances distributed to sectors not covered by CBAM during a "volatile" period linked to expected UK-EU carbon market linkage. Such linkage would exempt UK and EU from each other's CBAMs, but talks have yet to start. UK refiners have also missed out on government energy price support schemes during the gas price surge triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, de Jong told MPs. Refiners paid market rates to power operations at their UK sites, missing out on discounts afforded to UK companies under the Energy Bill Relief Scheme, which ran between October 2022-March 2023, and then under the Energy Bills Discount Scheme between April 2023-March 2024. By contrast, US refiners access natural gas at roughly one-third of UK prices, Greenwood said. By George Maher-Bonnett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: Brazil poised for record soy output, exports

23/12/25
News
23/12/25

Viewpoint: Brazil poised for record soy output, exports

Sao Paulo, 23 December (Argus) — Brazil expects to produce and export record soybean volumes in the 2025-26 season, despite concerns over adverse weather and uncertainties regarding prices and Chinese demand. National supply company Conab estimates production will reach a record 177.1mn metric tonnes (t), although some market participants foresee output surpassing 180mn t. The 2024-25 soybean crop reached an all-time high of 171.5mn t, according to Conab. Yearly volume gains follow another season of acreage expansion, which has been a trend since the 2007-08 crop. Planted area may climb by 3.4pc this season to 48.9mn hectares (489,000km²), Conab data show. That surpasses market participants' expectations for the lowest increase in almost 20 years, with rising production costs and difficult access to credit lines for farmers. Despite these challenges, producers opted to continue increasing investments in the oilseed. Soybeans are their main revenue source, supported by firm demand from China. Brazilian exports should total an unprecedented 112mn t in 2026. That compares with the current record of 107mn t from 2025, according to Conab The US Department of Agriculture forecasts Chinese imports to rise by 4mn t to 112mn t in the 2025-26 season from the prior cycle. China has acquired at least 70pc of Brazil's soybean exports each year since 2020, according to national association of cereal exporters Anec. If China maintains a minimum share of 70pc, it would receive approximately 78.4mn t of Brazilian soybeans next year. Market participants remain confident that Brazil should post another strong year for exports, with China maintaining a large share in the Brazilian market over the upcoming years. The overall terms of the US-China deal should not pose any threat to the Brazilian market, according to market participants. China has reportedly pledged to buy 25mn t/yr from the US through 2028, yet volumes ranged from 25.9mn-32.mn t in 2020-2024, GTT and Chinese customs data show. But they fear that China may delay its return to the Brazilian market. That is because late purchases from the US could ensure Chinese buyers have full stocks once Brazil starts its export season in February. China agreed to acquire 12mn t of US soybeans before the Brazilian export season. The absent Chinese demand could lead to a price plunge once harvesting advances, as record volumes become available for the market. Brazil also has a problem with an ever-deficient storage capacity, which could prompt farmers to lower prices as much as possible to attract buyers. Record production is always a factor that pressures prices downwards. The US-China trade war managed to support Brazilian port differentials during the 2024-25 season, which accounts for the current record. But the 2022-23 crop registered record-low prices in the Paranagua paper market. Bids for April — which is usually the export season peak — were at a premium of 21¢/bushel (bu) to the CBOT in early 2023. Consecutive losses led to a 90¢/bu discount as of 31 March 2023. Brazil supply may be lower than expected Market participants worry that unfavorable weather conditions could lower production and export volumes. But the sparse occurrence of these adverse weather episodes is unlikely to be enough to pull volumes below last season's 171.5mn t. Central-western Mato Grosso state takes the spotlight in this matter. Its institute of agricultural economics Imea reported irregular rainfall throughout October. Some regions did not receive rain for 10 consecutive days at the time. Dry weather conditions turned planting unfeasible, because soil moisture is necessary for plant germination. It also hindered crop development in the initial phases. Market participants estimate that the total resown in Mato Grosso will reach approximately 2pc of the expected acreage this season, while the national average is closer to 1pc. A severe drought caused the 2023-24 season's results to fall short of initial estimates and led to a record replanting level of 8pc, according to market participants. Central-western Goias and southern Parana states also registered above-average replanting rates. These are expected to be the second and fourth largest soybean producers this crop, respectively. Goias is struggling with irregular rainfall. Water restrictions are causing resowing in its southern and eastern portions. Parana was hit by heavy rains in early November, which intensified into hailstorms, windstorms, flash floods and an extratropical cyclone. Most affected regions registered soil erosion and complete losses. Rio Grande do Sul state — the second-largest soybean producer — is also facing issues with hydric stress. Some market participants are already saying that there will be cuts in the production outlook. Areas sown after 15 November exhibit uneven growing patterns due to water restriction, according to regional rural agency Emater-RS. By Nathalia Giannetti Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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