P66 to stop Rodeo crude refining next month: Correction

Market: Biofuels, Crude oil, Oil products
31/01/24

Corrects renewable feedstocks details in penultimate paragraph

US independent refiner Phillips 66 plans to stop processing crude next month at its Rodeo, California, refinery and produce over 50,000 b/d of renewable fuels by the end of the second quarter.

Phillips 66's 115,000 b/d Rodeo refinery has been undergoing a multi-year conversion to produce over 50,000 b/d of renewable diesel (RD) with the option to also make sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).

The refinery took one crude unit down in December but still processed crude feedstocks in January and will stop processing oil altogether in February, the company said on an earnings call today.

The plant expects to start up one of its converted hydrocrackers in March and the facility will "quickly ramp up to about 50pc of the stated capacity," senior vice president of refining Rich Harbison said on today's call.

The refiner plans to finish work on a pre-treatment unit (PTU) and a second hydrocracker at the plant in April and start commissioning those units into May.

Once Rodeo's PTU is up and running, the refiner plans to start processing lower carbon intensity (CI) feedstocks such as fats, greases and tallows late in the second quarter and maybe into the third quarter, Harbison said.

Before the startup of the PTU, the plant will process used vegetable oil (UVO) and potentially used cooking oil (UCO) as well as neat vegetable oil.

"We expect to be up to full rates in by the end of the second quarter," Harbison said.

By Nathan Risser

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13/06/25

EPA proposes record US biofuel mandates: Update

Updates with new pricing, reactions throughout. New York, 13 June (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration today proposed requiring record biofuel blending into the US fuel supply over the next two years, including unexpectedly strong quotas for biomass-based diesel. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposal, which still must be finalized, projects oil refiners will need to blend 5.61bn USG of biomass-based diesel to comply with requirements in 2026 and 5.86bn USG in 2027. Those estimates — while uncertain — would be a 67pc increase in 2026 and a 75pc increase in 2027 from this year's 3.35bn USG requirement, above what most industry groups had sought. The proposal alone is likely to boost biofuel production, which has been down to start the year as biorefineries have struggled to grapple with uncertainty about future blend mandates, the halting rollout of a new clean fuel tax credit, and higher import tariffs. The National Oilseed Processors Association said hiking the biomass-based diesel mandate to the proposed levels would bring "idled capacity back online" and spur "additional investments" in the biofuel supply chain. The EPA proposal also would halve Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits generated from foreign biofuels and biofuels produced from foreign feedstocks, a major change that could increase US crop demand and hurt renewable diesel plants that source many of their inputs from abroad. US farm groups have lamented refiners' rising use of Chinese used cooking oil and Brazilian tallow to make renewable diesel, and EPA's proposal if finalized would sharply reduce the incentive to do so. Biofuel imports from producers with major refineries abroad, notably including Neste, would also be far less attractive. The proposal asks for comment, however, on a less restrictive policy that would only treat fuels and feedstocks from "a subset of countries" differently. And EPA still expects a substantial role for imported product regardless, estimating in a regulatory impact analysis that domestic fuels from domestic feedstocks will make up about 62pc of biomass-based diesel supply next year. The Renewable Fuel Standard program requires US oil refiners and importers to blend biofuels into the conventional fuel supply or buy credits from those who do. One USG of corn ethanol generates one RIN, but more energy-dense fuels like renewable diesel can earn more. In total, the rule would require 24.02bn RINs to be retired next year and 24.46bn RINs in 2027. That includes a specific 7.12bn RIN mandate for biomass-based diesel in 2026 and 7.5bn in 2027, and an implied mandate for corn ethanol flat from prior years at 15bn RINs. EPA currently sets biomass-based diesel mandates in physical gallons but is proposing a change to align with how targets for other program categories work. US soybean oil futures surged following the release of the EPA proposal, closing at their highest price in more than four weeks, and RIN credits rallied similarly on bullish expectations for higher biofuel demand and domestic feedstock prices. D4 biomass-diesel credits traded as high as 117.75¢/RIN, up from a 102.5¢/RIN settle on Thursday, while D6 conventional credits traded as high as 110¢/RIN. Bids for both retreated later in the session while prices still closed the day higher. Proposed targets are less aspirational for the cellulosic biofuel category, where biogas generates most credits. EPA proposes lowering the 2025 mandate to 1.19bn RINs, down from from 1.38bn RINs previously required, with 2026 and 2027 targets proposed at 1.30bn RINs and 1.36bn RINs, respectively. In a separate final rule today, EPA cut the 2024 cellulosic mandate to 1.01bn RINs from 1.09bn previously required, a smaller cut than initially proposed, and made available special "waiver" credits refiners can purchase at a fixed price to comply. Small refinery exemptions The proposal includes little clarity on EPA's future policy around program exemptions, which small refiners can request if they claim blend mandates will cause them disproportionate economic hardship. EPA predicted Friday that exemptions for the 2026 and 2027 compliance years could total anywhere from zero to 18bn USG of gasoline and diesel and provided no clues as to how it will weigh whether individual refiners, if any, deserve program waivers. The rule does suggest EPA plans to continue a policy from past administrations of estimating future exempted volumes when calculating the percentage of biofuels individual refiners must blend in the future, which would effectively require those with obligations to shoulder more of the burden to meet high-level 2026 and 2027 targets. Notably though, the proposal says little about how EPA is weighing a backlog of more than a hundred requests for exemptions stretching from 2016 to 2025. An industry official briefed on Friday ahead of the rule's release said Trump administration officials were "coy" about their plans for the backlog. Many of these refiners had already submitted RINs to comply with old mandates and could push for some type of compensation if granted retroactive waivers, making this part of the program especially hard to implement. And EPA would invite even more legal scrutiny if it agreed to biofuel groups' lobbying to "reallocate" newly exempted volumes from many years prior into future standards. EPA said it plans to "communicate our policy regarding [exemption] petitions going forward before finalization of this rule". Industry groups expect the agency will try to conclude the rule-making before November. The proposed mandates for 2026-2027 will have to go through the typical public comment process and could be changed as regulators weigh new data on biofuel production and food and fuel prices. Once the program updates are finalized, lawsuits are inevitable. A federal court is still weighing the legality of past mandates, and the Supreme Court is set to rule this month on the proper court venue for litigating small refinery exemption disputes. Environmentalists are likely to probe the agency's ultimate assessment of costs and benefits, including the climate costs of encouraging crop-based fuels. Oil companies could also have a range of complaints, from the record-high mandates to the creative limits on foreign feedstocks. American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers senior vice president Geoff Moody noted that EPA was months behind a statutory deadline for setting 2026 mandates and said it would "strongly oppose any reallocation of small refinery exemptions" if finalized. By Cole Martin and Matthew Cope Proposed 2026-2027 renewable volume obligations bn RINs Fuel type 2026 2027 Cellulosic biofuel 1.30 1.36 Biomass-based diesel 7.12 7.50 Advanced biofuel 9.02 9.46 Total renewable fuel 24.02 24.46 Implied ethanol mandate 15 15 — EPA Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Israel, Iran exchange strikes: Update

13/06/25

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13/06/25

Israel, Iran exchange strikes: Update

Updates with details throughout Washington, 13 June (Argus) — Israel continued to attack nuclear facilities in Iran and Tehran retaliated with missile strikes against Tel Aviv and elsewhere in Israel on a day that saw sharp escalation across the world's largest oil producing region. Israel's Air Force said today it completed another round of attacks against Iran while prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his country will continue attacking Iran "as long as necessary". The latest Israeli attack, following broader strikes in the early hours Friday, targeted a nuclear facility near Isfahan in Iran's northwest, according to Israel's Air Force post on social media platform X at 8:40pm local time (5:40pm GMT). A barrage of Iranian ballistic missiles landed in Tel Aviv in late evening hours Friday local time, as Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) said it will deliver a "crushing and precise response" to Israeli strikes that decapitated Iran's military leadership, knocked out the country's air defense and caused some damage to the country's nuclear programme facilities. The exchange of air and missile strikes has so far spared oil infrastructure in Iran and elsewhere in the region. Israel has halted production at two of its major natural gas fields and cut pipeline exports to Egypt following the attack on Iran. Crude market participants said they were concerned that Israeli attacks on Iran could extend beyond the existing military targets and nuclear infrastructure, and target the country's oil fields and facilities. The July Nymex WTI contract was trading near $73/bl at 3pm ET, about 8pc above yesterday's settlement price. Israel's military said earlier in the day that it intercepted a barrage of drones launched from Iran and Yemen. The ballistic missiles Iran used later in the evening are faster moving and harder to intercept, said former US assistant secretary of state Barbara Leaf. Iran last used them to attack Israel in October 2024. "We must give a strong response," Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said before the Iranian missile strikes on Israel. "They shouldn't imagine that they've attacked us and that everything is over now." What next? The immediate aftermath of the attack on Iran, launched in the early hours Friday local time, points to a serious toll in leadership ranks, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps commander-in-chief Hossein Salami and Iran's army chief, Mohammad Bagheri. US president Donald Trump convened a national security council meeting at 11am ET today, with no readout yet on any potential measures it could take in response to a hike in oil prices. US forces across the Middle East are on alert and the US administration pledged to help defend Israel from further attacks. The conflict has the potential to spread to neighboring countries and Trump's sidelining or forced retirement of professional diplomats at the State Department and the White House national security council leaves his administration with fewer resources to dial down tensions or to prevent Israel from taking drastic steps, Leaf said during a discussion hosted by think tank the Middle East Institute. "Iraq is in the bull's eye," said Leaf, who left the State Department in January. "The Gulf states are obviously very vulnerable. Egypt and Israel have been acutely threatened by the conflict in Gaza, and this kind of adds a new pile on, but I worry about Iraq." The apparent initial success of Israel's military operation could prompt Netanyahu to press his advantage against Iran and "one of my concerns would be that... the drive to go forward toward regime change will be just too tempting," Leaf said. "This is a country of 83 million people. It's not a non-state actor like Hezbollah" in Lebanon, she said. "As immense an achievement it was for the Israel Defense Forces to take Hezbollah apart, it is not the same thing as really decapitating a country and then seeing how it all works out." By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Opec+ output rises by 360,000 b/d in May

13/06/25

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13/06/25

Opec+ output rises by 360,000 b/d in May

London, 13 June (Argus) — Crude production by Opec+ members with output targets rose by 360,000 b/d last month, driven by Saudi Arabia and South Sudan, Argus estimates. Output rose to 34.33mn b/d in May, the highest in 15 months and 760,000 b/d above six months ago. But it was still 70,000 b/d below the group's collective target for the month. Further increases are on the way. Eight Opec+ members — Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Russia, the UAE, Algeria, Oman and Kazakhstan — began unwinding 2.2mn b/d of "voluntary" additional cuts in April with an initial increase of 137,000 b/d. They followed this by tripling the scheduled monthly increases to 411,000 b/d for May, June and July . If they continue at this rate, the group could fully unwind its cuts by October, 11 months earlier than planned. The decisions to return more oil to an increasingly uncertain market took observers by surprise, particularly given subdued oil prices and the bleak economic outlook driven by US president Donald Trump's tariff policies. The group says the output rises are based on "healthy market fundamentals" and "low oil inventories". But the eight members have also stressed the actual output increases will be partially offset by members that have pledged to compensate for past overproduction. This is now being borne out. The eight members boosted their combined output by 190,000 b/d in May — less than the 411,000 b/d increase to their collective target for the month. Russia and Iraq are key reasons for the lower output, with both having pledged to compensate for significant past overproduction. Iraq kept its output flat at 3.94mn b/d — 110,000 b/d below its May target. While this was still 30,000 b/d above the country's target under the latest publicly available compensation plan , it marks a big improvement on previous months. Russia's output also remained unchanged at 8.98mn b/d, 100,000 b/d below its target and 20,000 b/d below its compensation-related target. The UAE also made considerable compensation effort. The country's output fell by 10,000 b/d to 2.93mn b/d — 70,000 b/d below its compensation-related target. And while Saudi Arabia increased its output by a hefty 140,000 b/d, this was 50,000 b/d below its target for the month. The country is expected to be the main driver of the alliance's output increases in the coming months, particularly given that it does not have any compensation-related cuts to make. The outlier Kazakhstan continues to stick out like a sore thumb, with its output still at near-record levels. The country's production rose by 10,000 b/d to 1.83mn b/d in May — 340,000 b/d above its target for the month and a whopping 460,000 b/d above its compensation-related target. Kazakhstan is not expected to make any meaningful production cuts in the coming months. A large part of the alliance's wider output increase was driven by South Sudan, which resumed exports of Dar Blend in late April. Production of the grade was shut in for more than a year owing to problems affecting the pipeline that carries the crude to war-torn Sudan's Bashayer terminal on the Red Sea. The resumption of flows boosted output to 150,000 b/d in May, the highest since March 2024. Another notable boost came from Iran which, like Venezuela and Libya, is exempt from output targets. Iran's production rose by 30,000 b/d to 3.42mn b/d — the highest since August 2018, when the country's output began to fall owing to the reimposition of sanctions by Trump during his first term. Venezuela's output fell by 30,000 b/d to 930,000 b/d. Further output falls are around the corner , with the US tightening sanctions on the South American country. By Aydin Calik Opec+ crude production mn b/d May Apr* May target† ± target Opec 9 21.51 21.26 21.64 -0.13 Non-Opec 9 12.82 12.71 12.76 +0.06 Total Opec+ 18 34.33 33.97 34.40 -0.07 *revised †includes additional cuts but excludes compensation cuts Opec wellhead production mn b/d May Apr* May target† ± target Saudi Arabia 9.15 9.01 9.20 -0.05 Iraq 3.94 3.94 4.05 -0.11 Kuwait 2.43 2.40 2.44 -0.01 UAE 2.94 2.95 3.02 -0.08 Algeria 0.92 0.91 0.92 0.00 Nigeria 1.58 1.55 1.50 +0.08 Congo (Brazzaville) 0.27 0.25 0.28 -0.01 Gabon 0.22 0.20 0.17 +0.05 Equatorial Guinea 0.06 0.05 0.07 -0.01 Opec 9 21.51 21.26 21.64 -0.13 Iran 3.42 3.39 na na Libya 1.38 1.34 na na Venezuela 0.93 0.96 na na Total Opec 12^ 27.24 26.95 na na *revised †includes additional cuts but excludes compensation cuts ^Iran, Libya and Venezuela are exempt from production targets Non-Opec crude production mn b/d May Apr* May target† ± target Russia 8.98 8.98 9.08 -0.10 Oman 0.76 0.76 0.77 -0.01 Azerbaijan 0.45 0.45 0.55 -0.10 Kazakhstan 1.83 1.82 1.49 +0.34 Malaysia 0.36 0.35 0.40 -0.04 Bahrain 0.18 0.18 0.20 -0.02 Brunei 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.01 Sudan 0.02 0.02 0.06 -0.04 South Sudan 0.15 0.06 0.12 +0.03 Total non-Opec 12.82 12.71 12.76 0.06 *revised †includes additional cuts but excludes compensation cuts Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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VLCC rates up 25pc after Israeli strike on Iran: Update

13/06/25

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13/06/25

VLCC rates up 25pc after Israeli strike on Iran: Update

Adds daily rate change in second paragraph London, 13 June (Argus) — The cost of freight for Mideast Gulf-origin very large crude carrier (VLCC) voyages rose by 25pc today after Israeli air and missile strikes hit Iran in the early hours. The key Mideast Gulf to China route rose to $12.85/t from $10.28/t. The VLCC market is exposed to volatility as around 65pc of all shipments in that class are from the Mideast Gulf. In October 2024, when Iran launched more than 200 missiles against Israel, the Argus- assessed rate for the Mideast Gulf to China route increased by more than 13pc, to $14.10/t, in three days. So far it appears there is no disruption to oil flows through the Mideast Gulf and the strait of Hormuz, and remains unclear as Iran's oil infrastructure was unscathed by the Israeli air and missile strikes according to Iran's state news agency Irna and Argus sources. But some shipowners have become increasingly cautious of the region, with some market participants suggesting more risk-averse owners might avoid the area until the conflict de-escalates. This could encourage some owners to increase their offers as the risk of transiting the area mounts, and discourage some from visiting the region at all. Charterers made multiple cargoes available to the Mideast Gulf market today, but most remained unfixed. But the rise in crude prices today — front month Ice Brent is trading around 5.5pc higher having rise as much as 13pc earlier — could discourage China, the largest importer of Mideast Gulf grades, from purchasing more crude. This could curtail any jump in freight rates and perhaps create a ceiling to cap the increase. By Rhys van Dinther Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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EPA proposes record US biofuel mandates, foreign limits

13/06/25

News

13/06/25

EPA proposes record US biofuel mandates, foreign limits

New York, 13 June (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration today proposed requiring record biofuel blending into the US fuel supply over the next two years, including unexpectedly strong quotas for biomass-based diesel. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposal, which still must be finalized, projects that oil refiners will need to blend 5.61bn USG of biomass-based diesel to comply with requirements in 2026 and 5.86bn USG in 2027. That's a 67pc increase in 2026 and a 75pc increase in 2027 from this year's 3.35bn USG requirement, above what most industry groups had sought. The proposal alone is likely to boost biofuel production, which has been down to start the year as biorefineries have struggled to grapple with uncertainty about future blend mandates, the halting rollout of a new clean fuel tax credit, and higher import tariffs. The EPA proposal also would halve Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits generated for foreign biofuels and biofuels produced from foreign feedstocks, a major change that could increase US crop demand and hurt renewable diesel plants that source many of their inputs from abroad. US farm groups have lamented refiners' rising use of Chinese used cooking oil and Brazilian tallow to make renewable diesel, and EPA's proposal if finalized would sharply reduce the incentive to do so. The Renewable Fuel Standard program requires US oil refiners and importers to blend biofuels into the conventional fuel supply or buy credits from those who do. One USG of corn ethanol generates one RIN, but more energy-dense fuels like renewable diesel can earn more. In total, the rule would require 24.02bn RINs to be retired next year and 24.46bn RINs in 2027. That includes a specific 7.12bn RIN mandate for biomass-based diesel in 2026 and 7.5bn in 2027, and an implied mandate for corn ethanol of 15bn RINs, similar to prior years. EPA currently sets biomass-based diesel mandates in physical gallons but is proposing a change to align with how targets for other program categories work. US soybean oil futures surged following the release of the EPA proposal, and RIN credits rallied similarly. Current year D6 credits, typically generated from conventional ethanol production, traded at 92¢/RIN near the opening of the session before peaking at 110¢/RIN and then retreating slightly. Current year biomass-based diesel D4 RINs followed a similar trajectory, trading up to 116¢/RIN and widening the gap with conventional D6 RINs. Proposed targets are less aspirational for the cellulosic biofuel category, where biogas generates most credits. EPA proposes lowering the 2025 mandate to 1.19bn RINs, down from from 1.38bn RINs previously required, with 2026 and 2027 targets proposed at 1.30bn RINs and 1.36bn RINs, respectively. In a separate final rule today, EPA cut the 2024 cellulosic mandate to 1.01bn RINs from 1.09bn previously required, a smaller cut than initially proposed, and made available special "waiver" credits refiners can purchase at a fixed price to comply. Small refinery exemptions The proposal includes little clarity on EPA's future policy around program exemptions, which small refiners can request if they claim blend mandates will cause them disproportionate economic hardship. EPA predicted Friday that exemptions for the 2026 and 2027 compliance years could total anywhere from zero to 18bn USG of gasoline and diesel. EPA plans to continue a policy from past administrations of estimating future exempted volumes when calculating the percentage of biofuels individual refiners must blend, effectively requiring those with obligations to shoulder more of the burden to meet high-level volume targets. EPA in the proposal said it plans to "communicate our policy regarding [exemption] petitions going forward before finalization of this rule". Industry groups expect the agency will try to conclude the rule-making before November. Notably though, the proposal says little about how EPA is weighing a backlog of more than a hundred requests for exemptions stretching back to 2016. Many of these refiners had already submitted RINs to comply and could push for some type of compensation if granted retroactive waivers, making this part of the program especially hard to implement. An industry official briefed on Thursday ahead of the rule's release said Trump administration officials were "coy" about their plans for the backlog. The proposed mandates for 2026-2027 will have to go through the typical public comment process and could be changed as regulators weigh new data on biofuel production and food and fuel prices. Once the program updates are finalized, lawsuits are inevitable. A federal court is still weighing the legality of past mandates, and the Supreme Court is set to rule this month on the proper court venue for litigating small refinery exemption disputes. By Cole Martin and Matthew Cope Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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