La Nina outlook offers boost to Australian agriculture
The outlook for Australia's crop and beef production is turning more positive in 2024-25, with the country's Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) updating its climate forecast towards a La Nina weather trend forming at the end of this year.
BoM updated its El Nino-Southern Oscillation (Enso) outlook to a La Nina Watch alert on 14 May, with indicators suggesting this phase developing in late 2024. Approximately half of all watch alerts have followed with the projected Enso event occurring.
Crop production and grazing conditions will likely benefit from increased rainfall should the weather trend eventuate. La Nina is associated with higher than average winter-spring rainfall from the northwest to southeast of Australia.
Grain yields and production in Australia's eastern cropping regions typically increase with a La Nina. Australia experienced record production during La Nina events that occurred during 2020-23. Winter crop production peaked at 69mn t and 63mn t in the 2022-23 and 2021-22 fiscal year respectively, according to Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (Abares) data.
The La Nina Watch alert comes as the US Department of Agriculture projected Australia's wheat production to increase by 3mn t from a year earlier to 29mn t in the 2024-25 marketing year, according to data released in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates on 10 May. Coarse grain production is also projected to rise by 4pc to 14.87mn t.
But Enso weather events have limited impact on southwest Western Australia (WA). A potential La Nina is unlikely to aid WA cropping zones currently experiencing very low soil moisture levels.
Increased rainfall from a La Nina developing in late 2024 may not coincide with the growing season of east Australia's wheat crops, which are typically sown during April-June and harvested in November–January. Too much rain around the harvest can damage crops and degrade quality. Floods in late 2022 damaged harvests in New South Wales, resulting in Abares at the time downgrading the state's production projections by 2mn t.
Increased rainfall in east Australia will boost pasture availability for cattle producers. Increased capacity of feed may encourage producers to increase herd sizes, potentially supporting future slaughter and beef production.
But the agriculture industry may be wary of the BoM's latest outlook. BoM was widely criticised after last year's El Nino declaration in September, which promoted some producers to pre-emptively destock at low prices in fear of dry conditions that did not occur.
Related news posts
Norfolk Southern replaces CEO with CFO
Norfolk Southern replaces CEO with CFO
Washington, 12 September (Argus) — Eastern Class I railroad Norfolk Southern (NS) has appointed a new chief executive, replacing former executive Alan Shaw after determining he violated company policies by having a consensual relationship with the company's chief legal officer. NS' board announced late Wednesday that it had promoted chief financial officer Mark George to replace Shaw. The board said Monday it was investigating Shaw for potential misconduct in actions not consistent with NS' code of ethics and policies, but did not provide details. The railroad yesterday clarified that Shaw's departure was not related to the railroad's "performance, financial reporting and results of operations". Instead, the board voted unanimously to terminate Shaw with cause, effective immediately, for violating policies by engaging in a consensual relationship chief legal officer Nabanita Nag. She was also dismissed by NS. Shaw worked at NS for 30 years and was appointed chief executive in May 2021, following six years as chief marketing officer. Earlier this year he led NS through a proxy fight with a group of activist investors that sought his replacement. The overall effort failed but the challengers secured three seats on the board . The investors had been displeased with the railroad's financial performance and "tone deaf response" to the February 2023 derailment in East Palestine, Ohio . New chief executive George had served as NS' chief financial officer since 2019. Prior to that, he held roles at several companies including United Technologies Corporation and its subsidiaries. "The board has full confidence in Mark and his ability to continue delivering on our commitments to shareholders and other stakeholders," NS chairman and former Canadian National chief executive Claude Mongeau said. By Abby Caplan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Port of NOLA to close prior to TS Francine
Port of NOLA to close prior to TS Francine
Houston, 10 September (Argus) — The port of New Orleans (Nola) in Louisiana and terminal operators there are limiting operations today in preparation for a full closure Wednesday as tropical storm Francine passes. Terminal operators are expected to reopen on 12 September after damages are assessed. United Bulk Terminals (UBT) issued a force majeure this morning from the Davant terminal on concerns for employee safety. The company did not disclose a timeline for reopening. UBT specializes in coal and petcoke along with other commodities. Associated Terminals will suspend operations 11-12 September and will assess damages on 13 September. The National Weather Service forecasts Francine to make landfall tomorrow on the Louisiana coast as a hurricane. Commodities including petcoke, coal, agriculture and fertilizer are likely to be affected by the port closure. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Export demand lifts Australian beef export values
Export demand lifts Australian beef export values
Dalby, 10 September (Argus) — The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (Abares) has projected record-breaking exports valued at A$14bn ($9.3bn) for beef, veal and live cattle in the 2024-25 fiscal year ending 30 June, fuelled by increasing global demand. Reduced global beef supplies are anticipated as major exporters, mainly the US and Brazil, undergo destocking phases because of prolonged droughts. This is coupled with a robust Australian cattle herd size, which is expected to bolster domestic slaughter rates. Beef and veal export values are forecast by Abares to rise by 4pc from a year earlier to A$12.9bn in 2024-25, driven primarily by rising demand from the US where domestic production is falling. Australian beef exports to the US have increased by 69pc during January-August compared with the same period last year to 96,265t, according to Australia's Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (DAFF). Live cattle export values are also projected by Abares to increase, with an expected rise of 25pc from 2023-24 to A$1.1bn. This growth is attributed to a higher volume of cattle being offered for feeder, slaughter and breeder exports. Australia during January-August exported 512,700 head of cattle to key markets, such as Indonesia and Vietnam, a significant increase from the 413,681 exported during the same period last year, according to DAFF data. The Australian dollar is expected to average $0.67 against the US dollar in 2024–25, slightly up from $0.66 in 2023–24 but 5pc below the previous five-year average, according to Abares. This slight increase in the exchange rate is likely to enhance the competitiveness of Australian exports in international markets. Input costs for the beef supply chain are also anticipated to ease. Labour shortages, which have been a significant issue for processors in recent years, are expected to improve with an increase in overseas workers and a weaker economy, Abares said. Global freight prices are also projected to fall heading into 2025, driven by weaker global demand and increased shipping capacity, which should help reduce container freight costs. By Amy Phillips Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Australia sees large chickpea exports in Oct-Dec
Australia sees large chickpea exports in Oct-Dec
Sydney, 5 September (Argus) — A bumper chickpea crop is filling up capacity at Australia's Queensland and New South Wales grain terminals at the start of the 2024-25 shipping year. GrainCorp shipping stem shows 19 slots loading approximately 270,000t of chickpeas in October-December from its Mackay and Gladstone export terminals. Only 230,000t of wheat is shown for loading in the same period from southern ports at Geelong and Portland. GrainCorp said in June it would only accept vessel nominations of chickpea shipments for elevation capacity at Mackay and Gladstone for October–December in anticipation of higher demand. The export programme in northern New South Wales (NSW) and Queensland is geared towards chickpeas for the start of the marketing year, some market participants said. Growers are not in a hurry to sell existing wheat because of the low current domestic prices — some near costs of production — and the high prices for chickpeas. Chickpeas prices were around A$1,050 compared with APW at approximately A$340 for delivery to Brisbane. But the large chickpea volumes could strain the local logistics and northern east coast export terminals, given the record crop and tight export window. This is especially so with India's suspension on tariffs on Desi chickpeas set to expire on 31 March 2025. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences forecasts chickpea production to reach 650,000t in NSW and 640,000t in Queensland in the 2024-25 (July–June) fiscal year. The NSW wheat crop is forecast to reach 11mn t and Queensland wheat crop is estimated at 2.1mn t in 2024-25. Competition for freight in northern NSW and Queensland, which is mainly by road, will drive resources to where they are most valuable, a market participant said. With margins on chickpeas exceeding wheat, that could limit capacity for wheat during harvest. In the near record harvest of 2021-22, Queensland exported 360,000t of grain in containers and 2.9mn t of grain in bulk, according to the Australian Competition & Consumer Commission. Chickpeas accounted for 270,000t of the bulk shipments. By Edward Dunlop Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Business intelligence reports
Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.
Learn more