News
18/06/25
Market risks grow as Trump threatens Iran: Update
Updates with details throughout Washington, 18 June (Argus) — The prospect of
wider escalation in the Middle East if the US joins Israel's attacks on Iran is
affecting marine insurance, freight and middle distillate prices, even though
the flow of energy commodities out of the Mideast Gulf so far remains
unfettered. US president Donald Trump, in wide-ranging remarks throughout the
day, hinted at a potential US role in Israel's bombing campaign against Iran.
But he also suggested that a diplomatic solution is still possible, noting that
he has yet to make a decision on whether to target Iran. Trump told reporters at
around 3:10pm ET that he would shortly convene another meeting with his top
national security advisers to discuss US options. Speaking from Tehran earlier
in the day, Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, warned of
"irreparable damage" to the US if it joins the attacks. Trump, in remarks to
reporters at the White House this morning, said he presented an "ultimate
ultimatum" to Tehran. And as for a potential US air raid on Iran, Trump said: "I
may do it. I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I'm going to do." Speaking
from the Oval Office in the afternoon, Trump said, "I'd like to make a final
decision one second before it's due." Khamenei, in a televised address today,
denounced Trump's "absurd, unacceptable rhetoric to openly demand that the
Iranian people surrender to him". Iran will oppose any "imposed peace", Khamenei
said. The escalating conflict in the Middle East is causing a surge in
Europe-bound freight rates for medium range tankers loading in the US Gulf
coast. Mideast Gulf middle distillate premiums are at multi-month highs.
Additional War Risk Premiums in the Mideast Gulf could rise sharply in the
coming days, as the number of insurance underwriters willing to commit at
current levels appears to be shrinking. Some LNG carriers that have held off
from transiting the strait of Hormuz in recent days have since sailed through or
have approached the strait, while no carriers loaded in the Mideast Gulf have
slowed from sailing via the strait. Few barriers to US participation
Domestically and internationally, there is no significant pushback against a
potential US involvement. But the isolationist wing of Republican politicians
and media figures loyal to Trump, including former Fox New anchorman Tucker
Carlson, is urging him to avoid involvement in an Israel-Iran war. Trump's
extensive commentary suggests a perceived need to push back on criticism of his
sudden eagerness to involve the US in another war in the Middle East after years
of lambasting his predecessors for having done so. Trump told reporters this
afternoon that "Carlson called and apologized the other day because he thought
he said things that were a little too strong." The argument Trump says he is
trying to make is that preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon may be
worth a military intervention. "I'm not looking to fight," Trump said. "But if
it's a choice between fighting or having a nuclear weapon, you have to do what
you have to do." The US intelligence community assessed, most recently in April,
that Iran has not restarted work on nuclear weapons despite building up enriched
uranium stockpiles since 2018, when Trump terminated a functioning agreement
that curbed that program. "I've been saying for 20 years, maybe longer, that
Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon," Trump said today. Mixed messages on talks
Trump claimed that Iran's government has reached out to him for a diplomatic
solution and has expressed willingness to send a high-ranking official to the
White House. The offer is "courageous", Trump said, but added, "I said it's very
late to be talking." Iran's mission to the UN subsequently denied a request for
a meeting at the White House. Iran after the Israeli attack canceled a round of
talks scheduled to take place in Oman on 15 June. Khamenei, in his remarks
today, hinted at a "suspicion" that the US diplomatic approach had been part of
Israel's preparation for military strikes. "Considering their recent remarks,
this suspicion is growing stronger day by day," Khamenei said. Trump said he
began to consider the possibility of US military action in the immediate
aftermath of the Israeli attack. "The first night was devastating, and it really
knocked the one side off," Trump said. Russian president Vladimir Putin reached
out with an offer to mediate in the Israel-Iran conflict, Trump said. The
conversation took place on 14 June, according to the Kremlin. "I said, do me a
favor, mediate your own," Trump said, referring to Russia's war in Ukraine.
"Let's mediate Russia first. OK?" By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request
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