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Iran rebukes G7 after warning over nuclear escalation

  • Market: Crude oil, Electricity
  • 17/06/24

Iran's foreign ministry has called on the G7 to distance itself from "destructive policies of the past" after the group issued a statement condemning Tehran's recent nuclear programme escalation.

"Unfortunately, some countries, driven by political motives and by resorting to baseless and unproven claims, attempt to continue their failed and ineffective policy of imposing and maintaining sanctions against the Iranian nation," the foreign ministry's spokesperson Nasser Kanaani said on 16 June. Kanaani advised the G7 "to learn from past experiences and distance itself from destructive past policies".

His comments were in response to a joint statement from G7 leaders on 14 June warning Iran against advancing its nuclear enrichment programme. The leaders said they would be ready to enforce new measures if Tehran were to transfer ballistic missiles to Russia.

The G7's reference to Iran comes on the heels of a new resolution passed by the board of governors of the UN's nuclear watchdog the IAEA. The resolution calls on Iran to step up co-operation and reverse its decision to restrict the agency access to nuclear facilities by de-designating inspectors.

Kanaani said "any attempt to link the war in Ukraine to the bilateral co-operation between Iran and Russia is an act with only biased political goals", adding that some countries are "resorting to false claims to continue sanctions" against Iran.

Tehran will continue its "constructive interaction and technical co-operation" with the IAEA, Kanaani said. But the agency's resolution is "politically biased", he said.

The IAEA's new resolution and the reference to Iran in the G7 statement could be the start of a more concerted effort to raise pressure on Tehran over its nuclear programme.

"What is happening right now is the process of accumulation of resolutions, so that when the day comes and the IAEA makes a referral to the UN Security Council, there will be enough resolutions to make a case for action at the security council level," a diplomatic source told Argus.

Iran is enriching uranium to as high as 60pc purity. Near 90pc is considered to be weapons grade, according to the IAEA.


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17/01/25

Canada's Trans Mountain investigating capacity increase

Canada's Trans Mountain investigating capacity increase

Calgary, 17 January (Argus) — The operator behind Trans Mountain's 890,000 b/d pipeline system in western Canada is looking into increasing its capacity as export congestion looms, while threatened US tariffs may prompt the country to re-examine its broader pipeline strategy. "We have started to identify and investigate opportunities that could improve the throughput efficiency of the system and increase capacity of the pipeline — ideally in the next four to five years," Trans Mountain told Argus on Friday. Federally-owned Trans Mountain would not say how much of an increase it was contemplating, but any plans would be subject to thorough regulatory reviews and approval before proceeding. The system connects producers in oil-rich Alberta to the docks at Burnaby, British Columbia, and its capacity was roughly tripled when the 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) was placed into service in May 2024. The increased system has been a popular outlet for shippers, both for selling to US West coast refiners, but also for producers looking to bypass the US altogether and target Asian countries. Trans Mountain is expected to be full by 2028, chief executive Mark Maki told a parliamentary committee in October , as are other lines which have operators like Enbridge also looking to up egress capacity. The laying of new pipe may not necessarily be a big part of these increases as both are looking at making their systems more efficient. TMX is expected to cost about C$34bn ($24bn) after enduring regulatory delays, political and environmental resistance, court orders, wildfires, floods, Covid-19 measures, and rising labor costs caused by competing pipelines since being proposed in 2013. Other proposed export pipelines like Enbridge's 525,000 b/d Northern Gateway and TC Energy's 1.1mn b/d Energy East did not get past the approval stage under a federal Liberal government. Alberta premier Danielle Smith on 16 January called on Canada to "immediately start construction on the Northern Gateway and Energy East pipelines" to decrease the country's reliance on US customers in the wake of threatened tariffs by president-elect Donald Trump. Prime minister Justin Trudeau and all Canadian premiers, except Smith, have not ruled out the use of Canada's energy — most of which comes from Alberta — in retaliation to US tariffs. Smith has been labeled by some as not being part of a unified front for Canada, but she questions where the "Team Canada" approach has been in the past, citing suffocating regulations for the energy industry and decades of transfer payments made to Quebec, Ontario and the Maritime provinces at the expense of Alberta taxpayers. There is precedent for Smith's concerns, referencing a clash between Alberta and prime minister Pierre Trudeau, Justin's father, in 1973 when a federal tax was imposed on Canadian oil exported to the US amid the Arab oil embargo. Conflict peaked again in the early 1980s when the Trudeau government introduced its National Energy Program, which included price controls on domestic oil. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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IMF upgrades global growth outlook


17/01/25
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17/01/25

IMF upgrades global growth outlook

Washington, 17 January (Argus) — The IMF is taking a slightly more upbeat view of the prospects for the global economy, revising upward its expectations for the US economy. But IMF officials are warning about the potential for higher inflation in the US if president-elect Donald Trump follows through with his threats to impose broad tariffs on all US imports from Canada, Mexico and China. "Higher tariffs or immigration curbs will play out like negative supply shocks, reducing output and adding to price pressures," IMF head of research Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said. In an update to its World Economic Outlook released today, the IMF projected the global economy will grow by what it called a "stable, albeit lackluster rate" of 3.3pc this year and again by 3.3pc in 2026. The IMF's new 2025 outlook is 0.1 percentage points higher than its 3.2pc forecast in its October report. The IMF expects the US economy, spurred by continued strength in domestic demand, to grow by 2.7pc this year, a 0.5 percentage point increase from its forecast in October. China's economy is projected to grow by 4.6pc this year, up by 0.1 percentage point from the IMF's October forecast. The euro area is expected to grow by 1pc. Last year, the world economy grew by an estimated 3.2pc, compared with 3.3pc in 2023, the IMF said. IMF forecasts are used by many economists, including at the Paris-based energy watchdog IEA, to model oil demand projections. Global inflation is expected to decline to 4.2pc this year and 3.5pc in 2026, with pricing pressures easing in advanced economies more quickly than in emerging and developing economies. Gourinchas noted that while it is difficult to quantify the effects of the policy changes Trump has vowed to implement, "they are likely to push inflation higher in the near term" relative to the IMF's baseline. Looser fiscal policy or deregulation would stimulate demand and increase inflation, as spending and investment rise. "A combination of surging demand and shrinking supply would likely reignite US price pressures, though the effect on economic output in the near term would be ambiguous," Gourinchas said. IMF executive director Kristalina Georgieva and other economists have warned in recent years about the rising tide of protectionist measures implemented by the advanced economies, including the US and the EU. A recent IMF forecast scenario that involves a trade war between the US, Europe and China would reduce the global and US GDP annual growth forecast by 0.5 percentage points in 2025-30, with smaller effects in the eurozone and China. That scenario did not account for a possible trade war between the US and its immediate neighbors, which also has the potential to disrupt an integrated North American energy market. By David Ivanovich and Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Houthis signal Red Sea attacks pause after Gaza truce


17/01/25
News
17/01/25

Houthis signal Red Sea attacks pause after Gaza truce

Dubai, 17 January (Argus) — The Yemen-based Houthi militant group said it will monitor implementation of a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Gaza-based Hamas, raising the possibility of a reprieve for shipping in the Red Sea, but will remain prepared for military action if the deal is breached. "Our position regarding the situation in Gaza is linked to the position of our brothers in the Palestinian [armed] factions," Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi said in a televised speech on 16 January. "We will continue to monitor the stages of implementation of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza, and any Israeli [violation], we will be directly ready to support militarily the Palestinian people." Al-Houthi's remarks suggest a halt in his Iran-backed group's campaign against shipping passing through the mouth of the Red Sea and against Israel directly. But with no clarity if he was referring to attacks on Israel or shipping lanes, shipping firms are likely to remain cautious about returning to the Red Sea. The Houthis began attacking commercial vessels with western and Israeli affiliations in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden following an escalation of fighting between Hamas and Israel. Al-Houthi said his group have carried out 1,255 operations, including using ballistic missiles, drones and gunboats, since November 2023. But the risk of an attack in the Red Sea remains despite the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel, tanker owner Frontline said today. "We [are] all hopeful with the ceasefire, but… any ceasefire will be vulnerable with risk of [a] crew being caught if it breaks," Frontline chief executive Lars Barstad wrote on X. The possibility of an attack has compelled many ship operators to forego the Suez Canal in favor of longer voyages around the Cape of Good Hope in the last year, adding time and cost to movement of commodities. Transit of liquid and dry cargoes through the Suez Canal totaled 343mn t last year, less than half the 763mn t in 2023, according to data from Kpler. The ceasefire deal was announced late on Wednesday, 15 January, by Qatar and the US, two of the three countries that have been helping to mediate the negotiations between Israel and Hamas. Egypt is the third. Israel's security cabinet will meet today to sign off on the deal, and will send it for approval from the full government. By Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Mexico’s oil states led labor market losers in 2024


16/01/25
News
16/01/25

Mexico’s oil states led labor market losers in 2024

Mexico City, 16 January (Argus) — Mexico's oil and gas-dependent states led state job losses in 2024, driven by a sharp contraction in spending by state-owned Pemex and the completion of the Olmeca refinery, according to energy market sources and state data, even as two-thirds of the country's states posted job growth. Annually, the total employment in Mexico grew by 213,993 jobs in 2024, 67pc fewer than the 651,490 jobs added in 2023, according to the Mexican social security (IMSS) institute's tally of formal jobs, which have full benefits like better access to housing credits and public medical services. The deceleration in the number of jobs created last year adds to signals of a Mexican economy that was cooling as the year progressed, according to economists and energy market sources. "In 2024, the second lowest generation of jobs in the last 15 years was recorded, only after 2020, the year in which the Covid-19 pandemic hit," according to a report from Mexican think tank Mexico Como Vamos. Tabasco state, one of the most important for the energy sector in Mexico, led the reduction in employment among the 11 states that experienced job losses during 2024. Tabasco lost 28,675 jobs over the year, for a 12pc annual decline in employment in the state, according to IMSS data. Twenty-one states, including the capital, posted job growth. Campeche, the state with the second biggest annual percentage of job losses, and Tamaulipas, the other state with a high dependence on the oil sector, also reported significant declines in 2024, with annual formal job losses of 5,952 and 3,120, representing 4pc and 1pc decreases from a year earlier, respectively. These IMSS figures only account for formal jobs registered with the institute, which provide access to medical, pensions, and housing credits, and totaled 22.24mn as of December. The official statistics agency Inegi counts employment nationwide at 59.5mn as of the third quarter last year. Inegi's count of employment includes the informal sector, made up of jobs without social security and other benefits. Inegi's estimates put the informal labor sector at over 54pc of all jobs. According to IMSS, the country lost 405,259 jobs in December compared with November, the largest loss recorded for that month since 2000. Still, December is typically marked by heavy job losses because of seasonal adjustments. But last year the final month's tally was pulled even lower than normal by overall weak hiring over the year, Inegi said, even as total job growth was positive for the full year. While the labor situation in Mexico worsened in 2024 because of the weakening of the national economy, including a sharp depreciation of the peso to the dollar, the decline has hit the states most closely tied to the oil and gas sector and Pemex spending, said Carlos Ramirez, founder of consultancy Integralia. Tabasco hangover "Tabasco benefited greatly from the investment poured into Pemex by the administration of AMLO (former president Juan Manuel Lopez Obrador), Ramirez said. "This is going to change now with the (Claudia) Sheinbaum administration, and the state will suffer a hangover as the new government reduces its support for the oil and gas industry." Still, the national unemployment rate is low, at 2.6pc in November, according to Inegi. And the country added 361,000 jobs in the third quarter from a year earlier, according to Inegi's broader base of data. But the economy was slowing in the second half of 2024. Growth in gross domestic product slowed to an annual 1.6pc in the third quarter from 2.1pc in the second quarter, according to Inegi. Inegi's IGAE, an index that tracks the real economy, showed that the Mexican economy contracted 0.73pc in October, as economists lowered growth estimates for the Mexican economy for this year. Pemex chief executive Victor Rodriguez in early October implemented a 20pc cut to the company's upstream budget, aiming to save Ps26.78bn ($1.32bn). This decision, combined with delays in payments for contracts and a halt in new service agreements, severely impacted local companies in Tabasco and Campeche, according to oil services company association Amespac. Some companies announced layoffs as Pemex's financial constraints rippled through the supply chain. Part of Tabasco's workforce reduction could also be tied to the near-completion of the 340,000 b/d Olmeca refinery, said Jesus Carrillo, an analyst at think tank IMCO. While the major construction phases have concluded, the facility remains in a testing phase, contrary to Pemex's previous promises of full operations in 2024. Despite the recent downturn, heavy Pemex spending during the administration of former president Lopez Obrador made Tabasco the leading state in job creation between December 2018 and December 2024, Ramirez said. But with the refinery now completed and Pemex projecting further budget cuts for 2025, analysts expect labor market challenges in oil-reliant states to persist. By Édgar Sígler Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Brazil to face weaker La Nina conditions


16/01/25
News
16/01/25

Brazil to face weaker La Nina conditions

Sao Paulo, 16 January (Argus) — Many government agencies expect a weaker La Nina weather pattern in Brazil — partially because of its delayed start — that could help reverse damages from a previous droughtand boost hydroelectric power generation. La Nina conditions emerged a month later than expected, starting only in January, according to national meteorology institute Inmet. Its presence was confirmed by the US' National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and is 40pc likely to last until March-May. Delayed La Nina conditions and its weaker effects on Brazil's climate may be linked to the global average temperature hitting an all-time high in 2024 , according to the World Meteorological Organization. La Nina conditions develop when the surface waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean are cooler-than-average across the central and central-eastern regions. But global oceans have been running much warmer for more than a year, which could have delayed the phenomena, according to NOAA. Its usually causes heavier rains in Brazil's northern and northeastern regions, while central-southern states experience drier weather and heatwaves. Brazil, along with South America as a whole, has a history of droughts , agricultural losses , and higher ethanol prices in previous La Nina seasons, but the effects this year will be milder and potentially beneficial to industries in some regions. Agriculture Despite its conditions set to last throughout the first quarter of 2025, Brazil's 2024-25 crop is expected to hit a record 322.3mn metric tonnes (t), up from 297.8mn t in the previous crop, according to national supply company Conab. Still, most forecasts rely on previous favorable conditions during the development of the 2024-25 crop. The soybean crop is set to be 13pc higher than in 2023-24, reaching 166.33mn t. Corn also is expected to increase production, reaching 119.6mn, a 3.3pc rise from the previous crop. But previous dry weather and low precipitation harmed center-southern sugarcane producers, which are responsible for 91pc of the national sugarcane output. The 2024-25 sugarcane crop is forecast to reach 678.7mn t, a 4.8pc decline from the previous season, according to Conab. La Nina's conditions may recover some of the sugarcane crop this season. Northeastern sugarcane production, harmed by last year's drought, will face a period of heavy rains brought by the phenomenon in January. But the sugarcane crop is already projected to decline by 30pc from the previous crop regardless, according to northeastern sugarcane producers' association Unida. The last time La Nina hit Brazil, in 2020-23, roughly 40pc of the main center-south sugarcane crop was at risk from dry weather . Ethanol Ethanol production is set to increase by 1.3pc in 2024-25 from the previous season, according to Conab. Still, sugarcane ethanol is outlined to shrink by 2.8pc thanks to 2024's dry weather and wildfires in the southeast. Electricity La Nina's late arrival enabled the summer rainy period in Brazil. The main hydroelectric reservoirs recovered from last year's drought and will end this month above half of their capacity, according to national grid operator ONS. Regardless of La Nina's presence, most of the central-southern states are expected to have above-average rains in January-April, according to Inmet. Temperatures are also set to stay above the historical average in the central-western, southeastern, southern and northern states. By Maria Frazatto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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