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US Fed holds rate, signals possible September cut

  • Market: Metals, Natural gas, Oil products
  • 31/07/24

The US Federal Reserve kept its target interest rate unchanged at a 23-year high today while signaling a September rate cut "could be on the table" if inflation continues on its easing trajectory.

The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held the federal funds target rate unchanged at 5.25-5.5pc. The Fed has held rates unchanged since July 2023 after hiking them by 5.25 percentage points from March 2022 in the steepest course of hikes in four decades.

"We're getting closer to the point at which it will be appropriate to begin to dial back restriction," Fed chairman Jerome Powell said after the meeting. "If we get the data that we hope we get, a reduction in the policy rate could be on the table at the September meeting."

The decision to keep rates steady was widely expected.

Following today's meeting, the FedWatch tool, which tracks fed funds futures trading, projected an 81.6pc probability of a quarter point cut at the September FOMC meeting and an 18.2pc chance of a half point cut, compared with 86.3pc chance of a quarter point cut and a 13.2pc probability of a half point cut a day earlier.

The Fed has been battling to rein in inflation, which saw the consumer price index surge to a four-decade high of 9.1pc in June 2022 because of supply chain disruptions caused by the global economic reopening following the Covid-19 pandemic.The Fed's favorite inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, fell to an annual 2.5pc in June, close to the Fed's long range target of 2pc. The unemployment rate has risen to 4.1pc in June from 3.5pc in July last year.


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17/06/25

Trump wants Iran's ‘unconditional surrender’: Update

Trump wants Iran's ‘unconditional surrender’: Update

Updates with details throughout Washington, 17 June (Argus) — US president Donald Trump is taking an increasingly bellicose tone toward Iran following Israel's devastating military strikes, while the White House national security council is discussing Washington's next steps in a conflict that could engulf the world's largest oil producing region. Trump, in a social media post today, called for Iran's "UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER" — without specifying what that would entail. He claimed that "we now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran", seemingly linking the US to the Israeli attack. And he said that Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, "is an easy target", but added: "We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now." The White House, meanwhile, began to spread a narrative that suggested that the US could join in Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, even if Tehran does not directly attack US interests or personnel in the region. Trump "has shown remarkable restraint in keeping our military's focus on protecting our troops and protecting our citizens," vice president JD Vance posted on social platform X, adding that Trump "may decide he needs to take further action to end Iranian enrichment". Trump cut short his visit to the G7 leaders summit in Canada to return to Washington Monday night. The US administration has come under intense lobbying from the isolationist wing of politicians loyal to Trump, who have called publicly for him not to commit US military personnel and resources to attack Iran. Senate Democrats, in turn, began to circulate legislation demanding that Trump ask for authorization from Congress before using military force against Iran. Trump blasted former Fox News anchorman Tucker Carlson as "kooky" for arguing vociferously against US participation in any attack in Iran. Trump, at the same time, criticized French president Emmanuel Macron for suggesting that Trump's early exit from the G7 summit was meant to work toward a ceasefire in the Middle East. "People are right to be worried about foreign entanglement after the last 25 years of idiotic foreign policy," Vance said. "But I believe the president has earned some trust on this issue." Trump, in stump speeches during the presidential campaign and since reclaiming the White House, has frequently denounced his predecessors for entangling the US in wars in the Middle East. In a speech in Riyadh last month, Trump offered "peaceful engagement" to Tehran and criticized his predecessors as "the interventionists (who) were intervening in complex societies they did not understand". Since Israel first launched its attack on Iran on 13 June, the US has warned Tehran not to target US forces in retaliation. Iran has taken no such step and has called on Trump to restrain Israel from further attacks to allow US-Iran nuclear diplomacy to resume. Iran in recent years has relied on its proxy networks in Iraq, Syria and Yemen to launch attacks on US forces. The degree of Tehran's remaining control over those proxy groups is uncertain. Iran also has not tried to block vessel traffic through the strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway that in 2023 accounted for 27pc of global maritime oil trade. Targeting vessel traffic in Hormuz would mark an irreversible escalation in the conflict, with damaging consequences for Iran as well as the global oil trade. Iran's Mideast Gulf neighbors, which have invested in better relations with Tehran in recent years, are watching the prospect with concern. "The UAE stands for dialogue, de-escalation and diplomacy," Abu Dhabi's state-owned Adnoc chief executive Sultan al-Jaber said at an energy forum in Washington today. "We call on parties to show restraint, and we reaffirm our belief in peace over provocation." US energy secretary Chris Wright was scheduled to speak at the same forum, hosted by think tank the Atlantic Council, but he abruptly cancelled his appearance to participate in the White House discussions on Iran. The US is rushing military, naval and air assets to the Middle East, saying the buildup is aimed at enabling Israel to protect itself from Iranian missile strikes. While Israel has targeted the majority of Iranian nuclear sites, it likely will be unable to destroy Iran's Fordow nuclear enrichment facility on its own. Fordow suffered only minor damage in recent days, and Israel appears to believe that leaving the plant operational would mean a failure of a key military goal, said retired general Frank McKenzie, who served as the commander of Middle East-based US forces in 2019-2022. "I'm certain they're going to get around to Fordow as it may be, trying to get us into the conflict," McKenzie said on Monday. "But I don't see how we get in unless we're attacked, and the Iranians have been very careful about not doing that up until now." By Haik Gugarats and Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Chevron latest E&P to join the US lithium hunt


17/06/25
News
17/06/25

Chevron latest E&P to join the US lithium hunt

New York, 17 June (Argus) — Chevron has joined the ranks of some of the world's biggest oil producers in taking initial steps to explore for lithium, a key component in electric vehicle (EV) batteries. The second-biggest US oil major said it has acquired about 125,000 net acres in northeast Texas and southwest Arkansas, covering parts of the Smackover formation — a region that has already drawn interest from rivals including ExxonMobil and Equinor for the high lithium content in its briny groundwater. Oil companies are seeking to leverage existing skillsets to deploy advanced methods to extract lithium from brine water — which is regularly produced along with oil and natural gas — at the subsurface. The goal is to produce lithium at lower cost and with a smaller environmental footprint than traditional hard rock mining techniques or those that require massive evaporation ponds and more freshwater resources. "Establishing domestic and resilient lithium supply chains is essential not only to maintaining US energy leadership but also to meeting the growing demand from customers," said Jeff Gustavson, president of Chevron New Energies. "This opportunity builds on many of Chevron's strengths including subsurface resource development." Chevron acquired the two leasehold acreage positions from TerraVolta Resources, whose investor is an affiliate of the Energy & Minerals Group, and East Texas Natural Resources. Financial details of the deals were not disclosed. The announcement follows growing interest in the region as oil companies seek to navigate the demands of the energy transition. Smackover Lithium, a joint venture between Standard Lithium and Equinor, aims to produce 22,500 t/yr of battery-grade lithium carbonate from the Southwest Arkansas Project (SWA) by 2028. In May, the Arkansas Oil and Gas Commission approved a 2.5pc quarterly gross royalty for the Reynolds Unit in Phase I of SWA, located in Lafayette and Columbia counties —setting a precedent for similar projects statewide. In November 2024, ExxonMobil signed a deal to supply up to 100,000 t of lithium carbonate to South Korea's LG Chem , sourcing the feedstock from the Smackover Formation. "By early next decade, big oil and big mining will replace the likes of [major US-based lithium producer] Albemarle at the top of the lithium world," said independent analyst Joe Lowry, host of the Global Lithium podcast. By Stephen Cunningham and Carol Luk Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Aerospace industry opposes US section 232 measures


17/06/25
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17/06/25

Aerospace industry opposes US section 232 measures

London, 17 June (Argus) — Major US-based original equipment manufacturers (OEM) have voiced opposition to a section 232 national security investigation into imports of commercial aircraft, jet engines and associated components, with most calling on the commerce department to commit to a tariff-free regime. The probe, launched on 1 May, elicited input from 205 stakeholders — ranging from individuals to leading aerospace companies — during a three-week comment period. The US is host to the largest aerospace and defence (A&D) industry in the world, and has maintained a positive trade surplus for over 70 years, according to the Aerospace Industries Association (AIA). The US exported $135.9bn worth of A&D goods in 2023, with a positive trade balance of $74.5bn, AIA data show. Respondents attributed this surplus to the World Trade Organization's 1979 Agreement on Trade in Civil Aircraft, which covers trade in civil aircraft, engines and parts between 33 signatory countries including the US, EU, UK, Canada and Japan. Domestic OEMs warn of supply chain disruption Boeing noted that while it relies heavily on domestic sources for its supply chain, around 75pc of its revenue comes from overseas customers, so "foreign market access is critical to Boeing's competitiveness". US carriers will account for only 18pc of the nearly 44,000 new aircraft projected to be built over the next 20 years to meet growing air travel demand, it added. Boeing emphasised the need for diverse global supply chains, adding that quality and regulatory constraints make rapid onshoring of manufacturing capacity a challenge. The critical nature of aviation requires articles to be subject to stringent safety and quality standards. "It may take up to 10 years to establish a new domestic supplier and ensure they meet necessary, rigorous safety certifications," the AIA said. High standards make any short-term disruption to a suppliers' operations particularly damaging. "The loss of one supplier can take many years to rectify," Boeing's head of government, global public policy and corporate strategy Jeff Shockey wrote. "There are often no viable alternative suppliers that can quickly meet the required certification standards, and compromises on those standards — many of which are grounded in aviation safety — are not an option." Kansas-based fuselage manufacturer Spirit AeroSystems urged the commerce department to prevent the implementation of import tariffs because higher duties would increase operating costs, upend long-term supply negotiations and add financial burdens to the industry. The firm highlighted the importance of its UK operations in supporting major aircraft programmes, and said any trade restrictions on that country would create risk for its production schedules. Virginia-based engine maker RTX cautioned that any tariffs levied under section 232 could threaten investment in its domestic manufacturing operations. This includes more than $1bn earmarked for its Asheville facility in North Carolina to expand production capacity of engine blades and vanes, and to add foundry operations for castings in the next few years. RTX warned that any undue pressure on its US supply network — comprising 20,000 companies — could result in small businesses, which are still recovering from Covid-19, to "close their doors". That would have a cascading effect on the wider multi-tiered supply chain, RTX said. RTX subsidiary Pratt & Whitney's PW1100G-JM geared turbofan engine helps power Airbus' A320neo family. EU, UK stress ties with US partners, facilities The investigation drew responses from several European and UK OEMs that have significant ties to US aerospace supply chains. Europe-based Airbus, through its US subsidiary, stressed that commercial aircraft manufacturing depends on a global supply chain and onshoring that entirely to any single country is neither realistic nor sensible. Airbus' A320 aircraft has 340,000 unique parts, each requiring years of certification. Airbus operates a final assembly line for its A320 and A220 jets in Mobile, Alabama, and has already said tariffs have hit assemblies imported to this operation . French engine manufacturer Safran pointed out that CFM International — its joint venture with GE Aerospace — produces the LEAP engine, which exclusively powers Boeing's 737 MAX aircraft. Safran also supplies the low-pressure compressor module to GE Aerospace for its GEnx engine fitted to Boeing's 787 Dreamliner. Boeing's alternative engine for the 787 is the Trent 1000 supplied by UK manufacturer Rolls-Royce, which commented that 60pc of aircraft with its engines are based in the US. It further highlighted the negative effect that tariffs have already had on maintenance, repair and overhaul operations, leading customers to delay repair work or seek unapproved alternatives. Ti forgings characterise broader tariff risks Aerospace parts often rely on unique metals, alloys, composites, forgings and castings that have specific properties, Boeing wrote. Machinery to manufacture these items is purpose-built and limited in capacity. Large structural forgings require unique forging presses capable of exceeding 30,000t hydraulic force, located in the US, Russia, China, France, Japan and Austria. Austrian forger Voestalpine Bohler Aerospace underlined that transatlantic reciprocity extends from finished aircraft and engines down to approved raw materials such as titanium and nickel-based alloys. "The industry cannot rapidly replace suppliers without creating significant cost overruns, supply chain bottlenecks, and safety risks," Voestalpine wrote. Pennsylvania-based Perryman, a key producer of titanium ingot and mill products, said continued access to global suppliers and aerospace-grade raw materials is crucial to avoid disruptions to domestic manufacturing. Perryman also argued that the interconnected nature of the titanium and aviation industries requires balanced trade solutions. The US relies solely on imports of titanium sponge, a necessary input for ingot melting, while also drawing approximately 50pc of its scrap needs from overseas. By Samuel Wood and Alex Nicoll Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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UN Bonn climate talks delayed by agenda disagreements


17/06/25
News
17/06/25

UN Bonn climate talks delayed by agenda disagreements

Edinburgh, 17 June (Argus) — The start of UN climate talks in Bonn, Germany, has been delayed as a result of agenda disagreements over finance and trade measures. The Bonn technical negotiations — halfway-point talks before the UN Cop 30 conference in Brazil — were scheduled to begin on 16 June, but the plenary was suspended as parties failed to agree on an agenda. The opening meeting is due to restart later today. Bolivia — acting on behalf of the Like-Minded Group of Developing Countries (LMDC) negotiating group — proposed two additional items to the provisional agenda. The LMDC group also includes countries such as China, Saudi Arabia, Cuba and Vietnam. The group's first proposed agenda item seeks to add a line on the implementation of Article 9.1 of the Paris Agreement relating to the provision of climate finance to developing countries from developed nations. The EU opposed the agenda item as proposed by the LMDC, and asked for references to Article 9.2 and 9.3, which relate to the provision of finance by "other parties" and sources of finance. The LMDC rejected this counterproposal. Finance remains a central issue in climate negotiations. At Cop 29 last year, almost 200 countries agreed on a new goal to provide $300bn/yr in climate finance to developing nations by 2035. The Cop 29 finance outcome was significantly lower than the trillions of dollars sought by developing countries, which expressed frustration at the time. But the Cop 29 text also called on "all actors… to enable the scaling up of financing to developing country parties for climate action from all public and private sources to at least $1.3 trillion/yr by 2035". Consultations on a roadmap to achieve that level will take place in Bonn. The second agenda item proposed by the LMDC relates to "promoting international co-operation and addressing the concerns with climate change related trade-restrictive unilateral measures" — namely the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM). The CBAM was a point of contention during the Cop 28 and 29 talks, with countries such as China and Brazil raising concerns about its impact on developing countries. The mechanism aims to create a level playing field by imposing an effective carbon price on imports to the EU in sectors covered by the bloc's emissions trading system (ETS). This is to prevent EU-based firms from moving carbon-intensive production to non-EU jurisdictions with lower carbon costs, and to avoid EU products being replaced by more carbon-intensive imports. The European Commission expects the CBAM, when fully phased in, to capture more than half of the emissions covered by the bloc's ETS. The scheme's full implementation starts on 1 January 2026, but its impact is already starting to be felt . Six emissions-intensive industries are included under CBAM's scope at present — cement, fertilizers, iron and steel, aluminium, electricity and hydrogen. By Caroline Varin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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India's HPCL plans another expansion at Vizag refinery


17/06/25
News
17/06/25

India's HPCL plans another expansion at Vizag refinery

Mumbai, 17 June (Argus) — Indian state-owned refiner HPCL plans another expansion at its Visakhapatnam (Vizag) refinery, and will raise its capacity to 401,000 b/d in the next five years from the current 301,000 b/d, the refinery's executive director Ramanathan Ramakrishnan said. The refinery underwent an expansion in 2023 when its capacity was raised to 270,000 b/d. Crude processing at the refinery was up by 21pc on the year at 307,000 b/d in the April 2024-March 2025 fiscal year, oil ministry data show. The refinery will be processing more than 321,000 b/d of crude in the 2025-26 fiscal year and 361,000 b/d over the next five years to meet the country's increasing energy demand, Ramakrishnan said on 16 June. Under the expansion plan, the refinery will add a 9mn t crude distillation unit, a 3mn t vacuum gas oil hydrocracker, a 3.55mn t residue upgradation facility, gas turbine generators, two trains of hydrogen, a sulphur recovery unit, an isomerization unit and associated tankages and facilities. HPCL expects to commission the residue upgradation unit at its refinery by July-September 2025. While the refinery does not have a petrochemical complex due to space constraints, HPCL intends to produce specialty chemicals and continue focusing on producing gasoline and diesel. The construction of HPCL's 180,000b/d refinery in Barmer is expected to be completed soon and the plant is expected to take in crude by October. The refinery is a joint venture between HPCL with a 74pc stake and the Rajasthan state government with 26pc. HPCL also has a 190,000 b/d refinery in Mumbai, and a 226,000 b/d refinery in Punjab in a joint venture with Mittal Energy. HPCL's sales of oil products in domestic markets rose by 6pc on the year to 47.29mn t in April 2024-March 2025. By Roshni Devi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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