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Iraq kicks can down the road on Opec+ compliance

  • Market: Crude oil
  • 09/08/24

Iraq exceeded its 4mn b/d Opec+ crude production target again last month, cementing its position as the group's least compliant member.

Latest figures from state-owned oil marketer Somo put production excluding output from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region up by 160,000 b/d on the month at 3.99mn b/d in July. Kurdish output will have taken total production well above the 4mn b/d target.

Argus, which will publish its July estimate later on 9 August, put Iraq's June output at 4.2mn b/d and May's at 4.16mn b/d, including around 250,000-300,000 b/d from the Kurdistan region.

Iraq has failed to meet its Opec+ target in any month this year. Along with fellow overproducers Kazakhstan and Russia, the country outlined plans last month detailing how it intends to compensate.

Last month's increase in production reflects higher exports, partly offset by a dip in supply to domestic refineries and lower crude burn. Crude exports from the southern Basrah oil terminal averaged 3.486mn b/d in July, a 196,000 b/d increase from 3.29mn b/d in June, according to Somo, while supplies to domestic refineries fell to 467,000 b/d last month from 475,000 b/d in June.

Jordan did not receive any Iraqi crude in July, according to Somo, but both countries recently agreed to renew a crude supply agreement under which Baghdad will supply 15,000 b/d under preferential terms.

Somo said Iraq burned 61,000 of crude for power in July. This was less than in June, largely because of the establishment of the Iraqi-Turkish electricity interconnector, which will supply Iraq with 300MW of power during the summer.

"Additionally, the grid connection with Jordan, steady gas production, and imports from Iran, as mentioned in our previous reports, have helped reduce reliance on crude oil," Somo said.

Iraqi officials say efforts to compensate for exceeding the Opec+ target are complicated by a lack of visibility on production in Iraqi Kurdistan. The region ceased providing output data after a pipeline dispute between Baghdad and Turkey shut in 400,000 b/d of its exports in March last year. Sources at Iraq's oil ministry previously told Argus that it will be easier to deliver compensation cuts after the summer season ends and temperatures begin to drop.


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19/02/25

UK Gulfsands Petroleum eyes return to Syria's upstream

UK Gulfsands Petroleum eyes return to Syria's upstream

Dubai, 19 February (Argus) — London-listed Gulfsands Petroleum plans to return to Syria's upstream as soon as sanctions on the country are lifted and "circumstances allow," the company's managing director John Bell said. "Sanctions discussions are occurring not only in the EU, but also in the UK and US," Bell told Argus . "In summary, we view these developments as generally positive. Gulfsands has always intended to return to its operation in Syria when the circumstances allow." Gulfsands holds a 50pc operating stake in two oil fields in Syria's block 26, in the country's northeast near the border with Iraq, an area long controlled by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Chinese state-owned Sinochem holds the remaining 50pc. Force majeure was declared in December 2011 with respect to the contract after the introduction of EU sanctions against Syria. The fields were producing 24,000 b/d at the time. Since then, control of the fields has been unclear at times. By 2017 Gulfsands said production was averaging around 15,000-20,000 b/d, although it added that was without its participation. Bell said the company can only return "if the current relevant energy sanctions in the EU, UK and US as revised and hence international companies are permitted to return to their operations, bringing with them vital investment, people, equipment and know-how." In January, the EU's high representative for foreign affairs Kaja Kallas said the bloc would begin easing sanctions against Syria within weeks , starting with economic and energy restrictions. More recently she said the EU would meet on 24 February to discuss the lifting of sanctions on Syria, and told Argus the prospect of this "is looking promising" albeit internal European politics could slow the process. Road to recovery Once a 600,000 b/d-plus producer, Syria's crude output has been on the decline over the past three decades. Just before the start of the civil war in 2011, production had was below 400,000 b/d, and by May 2012 it had fallen to 200,000 b/d, the Syrian government said. Today it is less than 100,000 b/d, with only around 16,000 b/d or so coming from fields in areas under the former Assad government's control. "At the moment, oil production in Syria is largely opaque, illicit, unsafe, destined for the black market and causing enormous environmental damage… [and] production volumes have decreased recently due to these unsustainable practices," Gulfsands' Bell said. Whether Syria can reverse this downward production trend "will depend on the approach taken by the new Syrian government," he said. If they properly leverage existing centralised government institutions and work with returning international energy companies, Bell said he could see crude output returning to not only pre-2011 levels, but even as high as 500,000 b/d "within several years." By Nader Itayim and Rithika Krishna Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Guyana unfazed by Trump’s ‘drill, baby, drill’ vow


18/02/25
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18/02/25

Guyana unfazed by Trump’s ‘drill, baby, drill’ vow

Georgetown, 18 February (Argus) — Guyana, one of the fastest-growing crude producers in the world, sees little threat from US President Donald Trump's pledge to flood global markets with cheap supplies. Despite Trump's vow to scrap a slew of regulations he claims are holding back US oil producers, Guyana's vice president Bharrat Jagdeo does not expect there to be a "major supply response." "If the prices come down, as President Trump wants, then it would also make some of the existing operations in the US — particular with (hydraulic fracturing) fracking — it may make them not feasible," Jagdeo said on the first day of the Guyana Energy Conference and Supply Chain Expo in Georgetown, Guyana, on Tuesday. Guyana's low breakeven costs and the quality of its crude will help it to maintain a competitive advantage going forward, he said. The vice president shrugged off concerns over the oil market as concerns grow over waning demand from China, the top importer. He pointed out that ExxonMobil just started the approval process for its seventh and eighth projects in the giant Stabroek block offshore Guyana, where the discovery of oil in 2015 has transformed the economic fortunes of the tiny South American nation. "They (ExxonMobil) study the oil markets, they probably know the oil markets more than any government official," Jagdeo said. "Clearly they see in the future a demand for fossil fuel, and they believe that in Guyana we have a unique opportunity to supply that market." Demand for fossil fuels is likely to remain "relatively high" for the foreseeable future while renewable sources lag behind, he said. Guyana, located on South America's northern coast bordering Venezuela, Suriname, and Brazil, has become a fast-growing non-Opec supplier since oil was first pumped in 2019. Output has accelerated to 650,000 b/d from zero in the space of around five years. And gross output is seen growing further to 1.3mn b/d by the end of the decade as new projects come online. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US to seek 'disapproval' of California tailpipe rule


18/02/25
News
18/02/25

US to seek 'disapproval' of California tailpipe rule

Washington, 18 February (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration is taking a procedural step to enable the Republican-led US Congress to block a California program requiring 100pc of in-state sales of new cars and trucks to be electric, plug-in hybrid and hydrogen models by 2035. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) said it plans to subject its previous approval of the program to "disapproval" under the Congressional Review Act, which could allow a vote to halt the standards without a potential filibuster. Oil groups backed such an approach, hoping to kill off a state program that threatened long-term demand for gasoline and diesel in California and nearly a dozen other states that are following its lead. California's program, called Advanced Clean Cars II, requires 35pc of new vehicles sold in the state in model year 2026 to be zero emission vehicles, rising to 100pc of vehicles by 2035. Under former president Joe Biden, EPA granted federal waivers that authorized the program and a separate California plan for limiting emissions from heavy-duty trucks. The Biden administration said its approval of the waivers were not subject to the Congressional Review Act, which aligned with a formal opinion by the US Government Accountability Office (GAO). But EPA administrator Lee Zeldin, on 14 February, said he would reverse course and "submit" all the waivers for potential disapproval. The prior administration attempted to prevent Congress from having input on an "extremely consequential action", Zeldin said, "and the Trump administration is "transparently correcting this wrong". It remains unclear the pathway for a vote to disapprove the EPA waivers, given the conflicting opinion by GAO, which for years has served as an independent arbiter of what actions Congress could disapprove. But some outside attorneys have argued that once an agency action is made subject to the Congressional Review Act, federal courts would not have jurisdiction to "second-guess" a decision to hold a vote. The US Supreme Court separately plans to hold oral arguments in the coming months on a lawsuit by refiners and biofuel producers that want the ability to sue EPA over its approval of an earlier version of the tailpipe program that runs through model year 2025. A federal appeals court last year said the case could not proceed. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Nigeria cuts oil theft, upbeat on output growth plan


18/02/25
News
18/02/25

Nigeria cuts oil theft, upbeat on output growth plan

Lagos, 18 February (Argus) — Nigeria's upstream regulator NUPRC said losses from oil theft have fallen to just 5,000 b/d, down from 15,000 b/d in August of last year. At its peak in 2018, theft was costing Nigeria as much as 150,000 b/d, according to the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative. Sustained security interventions by the government have been successful in tackling the problem, said NUPRC chief executive Gbenga Komolafe. "Oil theft has significantly reduced to 5,000 b/d, leading to a steady [liquids] production increase to 1.7mn b/d," he added. State-owned oil firm NNPC said security measures have led to around 1,861 illegal connections being removed from pipelines, while 677 points of vandalism were found and fixed over the past 12 months. About 4,124 illegal refineries and 1,897 boats laden with stolen crude were also destroyed within the same period, NNPC said. NUPRC said last year that a forensic study showed 40pc of losses previously attributed to theft in 2020–22 were caused by metering inaccuracies. In July last year, the regulator launched an audit of Nigeria's 187 upstream flow stations to determine where meters are outdated or broken and which designated measurement points lack the required equipment. The audit was to have been completed by November 2024 but an NUPRC source told Argus that it is only being completed now. Komolafe also said a programme that aims to add 1.07mn b/d to Nigeria's liquids output by December 2026 is on track. The ambitious initiative aims to leverage "collaboration among operators, service providers, financiers and host communities", Komolafe said. The programme forecasts an injection of $1.45bn of capital into Nigerian oil blocks under joint venture agreements, $1.11bn into blocks under production-sharing contracts and $650mn into blocks under sole risk contracts. This investment will respectively yield additional output of 470,800 b/d, 224,700 b/d and 374,500 b/d, according to NUPRC. Nigeria has struggled with mobilising upstream investment in the past and has consistenly fallen short of less ambitious production growth targets in recent years. But an NUPRC source told Argus that easy wins are possible under the latest output growth programme, including 42,800 b/d from restarting shut-in wells, 74,900 b/d from the ramp-up of fields recently brought online, 96,300 b/d from drilling new wells and 256,800 b/d from well re-entry. The chief executive of local operator Heirs Energies, Osayande Igiehon, said his company restarted 40 shut-in wells in oil block OML 17, which the company operates with a 45pc stake in a joint venture with NNPC, between the third quarter of last year and 11 February this year. Production has risen to 55,000 b/d, up from 35,000 b/d in January of last year, he said. Nigeria has "the infrastructure in place to deliver up to 2mn b/d, more than 2mn b/d, but a lot of it is shut in, is closed in or is poorly worked," Igiehon said. "Beyond 2mn b/d, we need to do a lot of greenfield investments onshore, in shallow water and in the deep water, investments that will take a longer gestation period," he said. NUPRC data show Nigeria's liquids production rose by 4pc on the month to 1.74mn b/d in January, of which 1.54mn b/d was crude, leaving the country 2.6pc above its Opec+ quota. Argus estimates put Nigeria's January crude production lower, at 1.51mn b/d . Nigeria's junior oil minister Heineken Lokpobiri said the government expects a significant portion of the country's targeted oil output growth will be condensate. The government is considering infrastructure interventions to reduce the co-mingling of crude and condensate, further separation of condensate streams from crude streams in transportation and storage, and to increase marketing of Nigerian output as condensate. By Adebiyi Olusolape Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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EU nears lifting sanctions on Syria


17/02/25
News
17/02/25

EU nears lifting sanctions on Syria

Munich, 17 February (Argus) — The EU will meet on 24 February to discuss lifting sanctions on Syria, EU high representative for foreign affairs Kaja Kallas said on Sunday. But internal European politics and concerns raised by Greece and Cyprus over Turkey's growing influence in the region could slow the process. Speaking to Argus on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, Kallas said the prospect of lifting sanctions on Syria "is looking promising". The EU Foreign Affairs Council is scheduled to meet on 24 February to discuss Syria and other issues affecting the Middle East. France on 14 February convened an international conference on Syria in Paris, bringing together representatives from G7 nations, the EU, the UN, the Arab League, and the Gulf Cooperation Council. The parties issued a final statement calling for support of Syria's political transition, but the US did not join that statement. US sources with knowledge of the matter told Argus that the issues raised in the statement are things Washington has not decided on, since US president Donald Trump's administration is still formulating its policy regarding Syria. Another source with knowledge of ongoing European talks on Syria said Greece and Cyprus are more reluctant to lift sanctions on Syria. Any EU action will have to be agreed upon by all of the bloc's members. Both countries are leery of ties between Turkey and the Syrian Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the dominant faction in the new Syrian government. Greece and Cyprus are worried about an oversized Turkish influence in the eastern Mediterranean following the collapse of the regime of Bashar al-Assad in December. Sanctions remain one of the biggest obstacles to Syria's recovery. Damascus has been struggling to secure crude and refined oil products through public tenders largely because of those sanctions. Shipowners remain cautious about sending vessels there over concerns tankers being sanctioned or stranded. Last month the US waived sanctions prohibiting energy trade with Syria, but the country is still under EU and UK sanctions, which may have narrowed the pool for bidding. By Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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