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Iraq kicks can down the road on Opec+ compliance

  • Market: Crude oil
  • 09/08/24

Iraq exceeded its 4mn b/d Opec+ crude production target again last month, cementing its position as the group's least compliant member.

Latest figures from state-owned oil marketer Somo put production excluding output from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region up by 160,000 b/d on the month at 3.99mn b/d in July. Kurdish output will have taken total production well above the 4mn b/d target.

Argus, which will publish its July estimate later on 9 August, put Iraq's June output at 4.2mn b/d and May's at 4.16mn b/d, including around 250,000-300,000 b/d from the Kurdistan region.

Iraq has failed to meet its Opec+ target in any month this year. Along with fellow overproducers Kazakhstan and Russia, the country outlined plans last month detailing how it intends to compensate.

Last month's increase in production reflects higher exports, partly offset by a dip in supply to domestic refineries and lower crude burn. Crude exports from the southern Basrah oil terminal averaged 3.486mn b/d in July, a 196,000 b/d increase from 3.29mn b/d in June, according to Somo, while supplies to domestic refineries fell to 467,000 b/d last month from 475,000 b/d in June.

Jordan did not receive any Iraqi crude in July, according to Somo, but both countries recently agreed to renew a crude supply agreement under which Baghdad will supply 15,000 b/d under preferential terms.

Somo said Iraq burned 61,000 of crude for power in July. This was less than in June, largely because of the establishment of the Iraqi-Turkish electricity interconnector, which will supply Iraq with 300MW of power during the summer.

"Additionally, the grid connection with Jordan, steady gas production, and imports from Iran, as mentioned in our previous reports, have helped reduce reliance on crude oil," Somo said.

Iraqi officials say efforts to compensate for exceeding the Opec+ target are complicated by a lack of visibility on production in Iraqi Kurdistan. The region ceased providing output data after a pipeline dispute between Baghdad and Turkey shut in 400,000 b/d of its exports in March last year. Sources at Iraq's oil ministry previously told Argus that it will be easier to deliver compensation cuts after the summer season ends and temperatures begin to drop.


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04/10/24

Mideast crisis puts Iran’s energy facilities at risk

Mideast crisis puts Iran’s energy facilities at risk

Dubai, 4 October (Argus) — Iran's large-scale missile attack against Israel on 1 October pushed the Mideast Gulf region another step closer to all-out war, with Israel vowing to retaliate hard for what it saw as "a severe and dangerous escalation." But unlike previous exchanges, which have largely targeted military assets, critical energy infrastructure including oil facilities appear this time to be in Israel's crosshairs. President Joe Biden on 3 October said the US and Israel are discussing possible strikes on Iranian oil facilities as part of consultations on a response. The Biden administration would not provide any details and the only objection it has voiced publicly is against the prospect of an Israeli strike on sites associated with Iran's nuclear programme. The escalating conflict in the region, which began with a surprise cross-border attack by Gaza-based Hamas militants on Israel almost one year ago, has had a limited impact on oil prices, because the effect on physical supply has been almost non-existent despite the scale of the fighting and destruction in Gaza, northern Israel and southern Lebanon. Attacks by Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen on oil tankers in the Red Sea rerouted some oil trade without affecting global supply. That could change if Israel makes good on its threat to directly target Iranian oil infrastructure and, especially, if Iran retaliates — as it did in 2019 to a US attempt to cut off its exports — with indiscriminate attacks on oil tankers and infrastructure in the Mideast Gulf. But the extent of the effect on global supply and price will ultimately depend on Israel's intentions, and what kind of facilities are hit. "If the objective is to hurt the country economically, then the most obvious target would be Iran's oil export terminals," said Vortexa senior oil risk analyst Armen Azizian. Despite US sanctions, Iran continues to be a major crude producer — the third biggest in Opec — and a notable exporter. Oil exports averaged around 1.55mn-1.6mn b/d in the first half of this year, rising to 1.65mn-1.7mn b/d in July-August. Early indications suggest September exports were higher still. Iran has several terminals from where it exports its crude and condensate, all on its Mideast Gulf coast. But one, on Kharg Island, dwarves all others in terms of importance. "About 90-95pc of Iran's oil exports typically come out of Kharg, with the other 5-10pc coming out of considerably smaller terminals, such as Soroush, Sirri or Lavan," Azizian said. "Hitting one of those smaller streams wouldn't impact Iran too much, operationally. But if they decide to take Kharg offline, we're talking about a hit of around 1.5mn b/d to its export capacity." Knock-on effects When Iran was struggling to sell its oil because of sanctions the US imposed in 2018, it had upwards of 60mn-70mn bl in floating storage. But these have fallen to just shy of 40mn bl, which would only sustain exports of about 1.3mn b/d for a month, Azizian noted. Iran has onshore storage, but many of the biggest tanks are at Kharg, which could be at risk of damage should the terminal be targeted. An attack on Kharg Island would strike at the heart of the Iranian economy, given how big a chunk of Iran's foreign exchange revenues come from the sale of its oil. Nearly all Iran's exports are absorbed by refiners in China's Shandong province. But the effect of potentially removing 1.5mn b/d from global supply would be felt far beyond Iran and China, as global markets would be forced to adapt. Crude futures moved higher this week on the prospect of Israeli strikes against Iran. The Biden administration for the past year has worked to keep the conflict from escalating, in part because of the potential knock-on effects on oil prices — a key consideration in the US election campaign where Biden's vice-president, Kamala Harris, is facing former president Donald Trump. If the confrontation results in an Iranian outage, avoiding a price rise would require a co-ordinated move by the US and other large consumers and, possibly, by the wider Opec+ group, to ensure supplies can be brought to the market. Opec+ is holding back close to 6mn b/d of production under a series of formal and voluntary cuts, which it could bring back sooner than currently planned. But doing so in response to an attack on Iran could stoke tensions within Opec and between Iran and its Mideast Gulf Arab neighbours, which improved relations with Tehran in recent years. The US would be hard pressed to again guarantee the security of key oil infrastructure facilities across the region. The tepid initial US response to a 2019 attack on Saudi state-controlled Aramco's Abqaiq complex and to a 2022 attack on UAE energy facilities prompted regional producers to consider Washington's military security guarantee as falling short. Kpler senior oil analyst Homayoun Falakshahi sees the the probability of an attack on Kharg Island as low, given China's relations with Israel and Iran. "I imagine China will put as much pressure on Israel not to target Iran's exports," Falakshahi said. Refining plans Alternatively, Israel could opt to target one or more of Iran's 10 oil refineries or condensate splitters that are largely concentrated in the west of the country. Discussion at an industry conference in Fujairah this week about a possible Israeli retaliation centred on Iran's largest refinery, the recently expanded 630,000 b/d capacity Abadan in Khuzestan province. Targeting Abadan was seen as a less provocative move, while still providing a warning to Tehran that energy installations are ‘in play' and hitting Iran's domestic products supply. A hit to Abadan would be significant, but not impossible to navigate for Iran, according to Falakshahi, who notes it produces mostly fuel oil, a product primarily consumed domestically with some exported to Fujairah in the UAE, China and Singapore, among other destinations. Abadan produces other products such as gasoline, which Iran has recently had to begin importing again to meet demand, but output is only enough to meet around 12-13pc of consumption. "It will primarily impact the local market, but little else," Falakshahi said. "But not to the same extent as if, say, the 360,000 b/d Persian Gulf Star condensate splitter was targeted, as that alone delivers enough to meet around 20-25pc of local gasoline demand." Gasoline is a politically-sensitive issue in Iran, with even minor changes in the price of the road fuel sometimes sparking charged demonstrations and riots. More than 200 people were killed in riots in November 2019 triggered by a sudden cut to subsidies that resulted in a sharp increase in gasoline prices. Israel has so far not given any public hints as to when it plans to retaliate or how. But with tensions in the region already at the highest they have been for some years, Iran will be on high alert, and upping security where it can. A trading source told Argus that Iran's state-owned NIOC has in recent days moved many of its empty tankers away from Kharg Island. By Nader Itayim Iran’s oil refineries and terminals Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Dockworkers end US port strike


03/10/24
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03/10/24

Dockworkers end US port strike

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US light vehicle sales surged in September


03/10/24
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03/10/24

US light vehicle sales surged in September

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Libya lifts force majeure as oil blockade ends


03/10/24
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03/10/24

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US tries to shape Israel's response to Iran: Update


02/10/24
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02/10/24

US tries to shape Israel's response to Iran: Update

Updates with additional comments by President Biden starting in second paragraph. Washington, 2 October (Argus) — US president Joe Biden today called on Israel to keep its expected retaliatory strike proportionate after an Iranian missile attack on Tuesday. "We'll be discussing with the Israelis what they're going to do," Biden told reporters. The US and other G7 countries agree "that they have a right to respond, but they should respond in proportion", he said. The US would not support an attack by Israel on sites associated with Iran's nuclear program, Biden said. For its part, the immediate US response would include new sanctions, he said. Biden reached out to fellow leaders of the G7 group of advanced democracies on Wednesday "to coordinate on a response to this attack, including new sanctions", the White House said. The US Treasury Department today imposed sanctions on two additional tankers allegedly engaged in transporting Iranian crude to China. The Gabon-flagged Izumo and the Marshall Islands-flagged Frunze allegedly also transported Russian crude in contravention of the G7 price cap on Russian exports, Treasury said. Including today's action, the US sanctions list now totals 302 tankers and other vessels accused of facilitating Iran's oil and other commodity exports since 2019, including 68 tankers added by Treasury's sanctions enforcement arm this year. That has not succeeded in stopping the flow of Iranian crude to China, as Tehran has developed a sophisticated network of intermediaries and "shadow fleet" tankers to bypass US sanctions. Biden, who ordered US naval and military assets in the region to shoot down Iranian missiles aimed at Israel, promptly declared Tehran's barrage of missiles to have been ineffective. The nearly 200 missiles launched by Iran appeared to be targeting military sites but did not cause significant damage, and the only reported fatality is of a Palestinian civilian in the West Bank, according to the White House. The White House is holding consultations with Israel to help shape its response to the attack. "Iran made a big mistake and it will pay for it," Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said following the Iranian attack, which came hours after Israel launched a ground invasion of Lebanon. Netanyahu referenced the aerial strikes that decapitated the leadership of the Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon, noting that "the regime in Tehran does not understand our determination to defend ourselves and to exact a price from our enemies". Tehran, in turn, said "we will respond in a more severe manner" if Israel retaliates with strikes against Iran. A previous Iranian missile attack on Israel in April led to a restrained Israeli retaliation on targets inside Iran, with the US, China and other regional powers intervening to prevent a further escalation. The Biden administration has tried to balance support for Israel's self-defense with efforts to prevent an escalation of the conflict that could engulf the world's largest oil producing region on the eve of the 5 November US presidential election. The Iran-Israel confrontation featured at Tuesday's televised debate between the US vice-presidential candidates, but neither offered an explicit plan for how the US should respond to the Iranian attack. The response from US lawmakers similarly fell along partisan lines, with the Democrats backing efforts by the White House to prevent further escalation, while the Republicans called for a stronger response. Iranian "oil refineries need to be hit and hit hard because that is the source of cash for the regime to perpetrate their terror", senator Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina) said. Graham made similar calls in April and in October 2023, at the outset of the Gaza conflict. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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