Generic Hero BannerGeneric Hero Banner
Latest market news

Southeast Asian oil demand to rise to 2050: IEA

  • Market: Crude oil, Electricity, Natural gas
  • 22/10/24

Southeast Asia's oil demand is set to increase to 7mn b/d in 2050 under current policies, according to the IEA's latest Southeast Asia Energy Outlook released today.

Oil demand in the southeast Asian region is set to rise from 5mn b/d in 2023 to 6.4mn b/d in 2035, and to 7mn b/d in 2050. This is a downward revision from the IEA's previous outlook in 2022, which projected oil demand rising to about 7mn b/d in 2030 and 7.5mn b/d in 2050.

The IEA's stated policies scenario (Steps) is based on countries' existing policies, while the announced pledges scenario (APS) assumes that governments meet all their national energy and climate targets, including long-term net zero goals. Under the APS, oil demand continues to grow but to a lesser extent to 5.2mn b/d in 2035, and then falls to 3.8mn b/d in 2050.

The transport sector is the main driver of the region's increase in oil demand, with oil consumption in that sector more than doubling from 1.3mn b/d in 2000 to 2.8mn b/d currently. Under current policies and trends, gasoline and diesel consumption for road transport rises by around 30pc by 2050, reaching nearly 1.6mn b/d.

The region's gas demand is projected to rise from around 170bn m³ currently, to around 210bn m³ in 2030 and about 270bn m³ in 2050. This compared to the IEA's 2022 projections of 240bn m³ in 2030 and about 340bn m³ in 2050.

Gas demand has increased by 5pc since 2022, according to the IEA. This recovery comes after a 4pc fall in demand over 2019-22, resulting from Covid-19 and a rise in LNG prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Overall energy demand is expected to rise by "about a third by 2035 and two-thirds by 2050," according to the IEA, with just under half of this demand growth to be met by fossil fuels. Under the APS, energy demand grows to a smaller extent of around 40pc to 2050, reflecting accelerated improvements in efficiency, electrification and fuel switching.

The share of fossil fuels in the total energy mix falls from 78pc currently to 65pc in 2050. This is lower than the 2022 outlook's projection that fossil fuels would make up more than 70pc of the energy mix in 2050.

The downward revisions in fossil fuel demand and their share in the energy mix is likely because renewables are set to grow rapidly in the region. Renewable energy already accounts for just under 20pc of the region's energy mix, through hydropower, geothermal and bioenergy. Clean energy is set to meet more than 35pc of energy demand growth to 2035 under the Steps scenario, because of rapid expansions in wind and solar power.

IEA's growing presence in southeast Asia

The IEA and Singapore inaugurated the IEA Regional Co-operation Centre on 21 October — the first office outside of the organisation's Paris headquarters. The centre will serve as a hub for IEA's activities and engagement in the region, so the organisation can provide policy guidance, technical assistance, training and capacity-building to address areas such as scaling up the deployment of renewables and increasing access to finance for clean energy investments.

Southeast Asia is projected to be second only to India in the contribution to global energy demand growth over the coming years, said IEA's chief energy economist Tim Gould on 22 October at the Singapore International Energy Week. This is why the new regional center is so important, he added.

Cross-border electricity trade, in particular, is going to be a high priority, Gould said. "A key work, from an IEA perspective, is to make those opportunities to bring in the private sector and different sources of finance for these projects," he added.


Sharelinkedin-sharetwitter-sharefacebook-shareemail-share

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News
24/06/25

Cheaper power key to reach UK’s climate targets

Cheaper power key to reach UK’s climate targets

Edinburgh, 24 June (Argus) — The UK's climate plan credibility has improved slightly but no progress has been made to make electricity cheaper, which is key to hit the country's emissions targets, independent advisory body Climate Change Committee (CCC) said in its progress report. The report assesses the UK's progress towards its net zero goals under the current government, which took power in July 2024. The CCC found the UK's 2050 target remains reachable but climate action needs to accelerate, even though policies to cut greenhouse gas emissions have improved. Only half of the 16 key indicators assessed by the CCC, with a relevant benchmark or target, are on track — including offshore and onshore wind operational capacity, sustainable aviation fuel, electric vehicle (EV) charging points and distances travelled by car. EV car sales, heat pump installations, woodland creation and peatland restoration are "slightly off track", while the ratio of electricity to gas prices for households and industries is "significantly off track", the CCC said. The committee noted no progress has been made on actions to lower the cost of power. The government is planning to consult on this "in due course", but CCC urged for actions and timelines. The CCC has identified "ten priority actions" for the year ahead, with cutting the cost of electricity for households and businesses again at the top. Cheaper power will support industrial electrification and "speed up the uptake of clean electric technologies, such as heat pumps and electric vehicles," the CCC said. The transition to renewables will eventually reduce the country's reliance on volatile wholesale gas prices, which are the main driver of electricity prices, it said. "But the government can take immediate action to accelerate this by moving policy costs associated with past schemes, and those that are not directly related to the cost of electricity generation, off electricity bills," the CCC said. Removing electricity policy costs — levied on the unit price of electricity at 20 times the rate of gas — would reduce annual electricity bills by £190 ($258) for a typical household with a gas boiler and by £490 for a typical household with a heat pump, CCC found. "This would bring UK prices into the range of other countries who are ahead on heat pump roll-out," it said. The CCC report assessed policy development from July 2024 to 23 May 2025, so does not take into account policies announced in the recent spending review nor the British Industrial Competitiveness Scheme intended to reduce electricity costs by up to £40/MWh for more than 7,000 electricity-intensive businesses. UK emissions reached 413.7mn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in 2024, including its share of international aviation and shipping, down by 50pc from 1990 and by 2.5pc from 2023, according to the CCC. The year-on-year reductions come mainly from the electricity supply — declining gas generation — and the industry sector. The government will increasingly need to focus on transport, building, agriculture and aviation to reach its emission reduction targets, the CCC said. The report points to encouraging trends in EVs and in heat pump installations, which grew by 56pc on the year, and in woodland creations, but it reiterated action on these fronts must accelerate. Although much of the progress stems from policies set by previous government, the CCC said "bold policies" introduced this year are promising, such as removing planning barriers on renewable deployment and the reinstatement of the 2030 phase-out date for gasoline and diesel vehicles. The market share of new EVs increased on the year in 2024, by nearly 20pc. But CCC noted aviation sector emissions are increasing. The share of sustainable aviation fuel increased to 2.1pc last year from 0.7pc in 2023, but a lot more is required to reach the 10pc SAF mandate by 2030. By Caroline Varin Distribution of past emissions reductions and future emissions savings by sector.pdf Distribution of past emissions reductions and future emissions savings by sector Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Find out more
News

Netherlands publishes RED III biofuels draft


24/06/25
News
24/06/25

Netherlands publishes RED III biofuels draft

London, 24 June (Argus) — The Dutch government's updated draft legislation to transpose the EU's revised Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) notably proposes abolishing double-counting renewable energy contributions from Annex IX feedstocks. The draft introduces a greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction mandate for land, inland shipping and maritime shipping, but excludes aviation — which was included in a previous draft . The RED III mandate will take effect in 2026. Obligated parties have to fulfil the mandate by surrendering a sufficient amount of so-called emission reduction units (EREs) in each sector. The mandate's flexible credit allowance allows EREs generated in the land sector to be used to partly meet emission reduction obligations in inland and maritime shipping ( see table ), but EREs from inland and maritime shipping cannot be used by land sector suppliers to fulfil their compliance requirements. Fuel suppliers with overall consumption of more than 500,000 l/yr will need to incorporate a 14.4pc share of renewable fuels in their annual deliveries in 2026. This increases linearly, to reach 27.1pc in 2030. The amount of crop-based biofuels in the land sector will be limited to 1.4pc of the overall energy content of total consumption until 2030, and will not be accepted towards targets in maritime and inland shipping and aviation. The amount of Annex IX Part B biofuels — such as used cooking oil (UCO) and animal fats categories 1 and 2 — that can be counted towards the mandate will be limited to 4.29pc in the land sector and 11.07pc in inland shipping. Obligated parties will be unable to claim EREs from Annex IX Part B fuels used in maritime shipping. The draft also introduces a minimum share of emission reductions that have to be achieved by Annex IX Part A and renewable fuels of non-biological origin (RFNBO), for all sectors. RED III mandates that 5.5pc of all fuels supplied must be advanced biofuels, including at least 1pc RFNBOs by 2030. The Netherlands' draft decouples these targets, to reduce investment uncertainty ( see table ). Refineries that use renewable hydrogen in their production process can claim refinery reduction units — or RAREs — which can be used by a supplier to meet an RFNBO sub-target in various sectors. Correction factor delay The ministry will delay its plans to apply a "correction factor" of 0.4 to its "refinery route" stimulus for hydrogen demand, in order to ensure the measure does not undermine direct use of hydrogen in transport. The correction factor means the value of emissions reductions credits generated through the use of renewable hydrogen for transport fuel production would be limited to a certain percentage of those generated through direct use of renewable hydrogen or derivatives in transport. The government leaves the option open to impose a correction factor from 2030. Although the EU Fuel Quality Directive increases the maximum share of bio-based components to 10pc in diesel, the Dutch government said fuel suppliers must continue to offer B7 — diesel with up to 7pc biodiesel — as a protection grade, because of the large number of cars incompatible with B10. Companies will be able to carry forward any excess EREs to the next compliance year. Companies with an annual obligation can carry forward up to 10pc of the total amount of EREs needed to fulfil their obligation in a year, with registering companies allowed to carry forward 4pc. Dutch renewable fuel tickets (HBEs) carried into 2026 will be converted into EREs on 1 April 2026, the government said. By Evelina Lungu and Anna Prokhorova Overview of future Dutch obligations pc CO2 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Land (Road) Sector-Specific Obligation 14.4 16.4 22.8 24.8 27.1 Flexible Credit Allowance 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total Obligation 14.4 16.4 22.8 24.8 27.1 Annex 9A Sub-Obligation 3.1 4.5 5.9 7.3 8.8 RFNBO Sub-Obligation 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.1 Conventional Biofuel Limit 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Annex 9B Limit 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 Maritime Sector-Specific Obligation 3 3 4 5 6 Flexible Credit Allowance 1 2 2 2 3 Total Obligation 4 5 6 7 8 Annex 9A Sub-Obligation - - - - - RFNBO Sub-Obligation 0 0 0 0 0 Conventional Biofuel Limit 0 0 0 0 0 Annex 9B Limit 0 0 0 0 0 Inland Waterways Sector-Specific Obligation 3 4 6 8 12 Flexible Credit Allowance 1 1 2 2 3 Total Obligation 4 5 8 10 15 Annex 9A Sub-Obligation - - - - - RFNBO Sub-Obligation 0 0 0 0 0 Conventional Biofuel Limit 0 0 0 0 0 Annex 9B Limit 11 11 11 11 11 The Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management *RFNBO: Renewable fuel of non-biological origin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Trump slams Israel and Iran over ceasefire breach


24/06/25
News
24/06/25

Trump slams Israel and Iran over ceasefire breach

Dubai, 24 June (Argus) — US president Donald Trump today criticised both Israel and Iran over what he said were violations of a ceasefire agreement he helped broker to end a 12-day conflict between the two countries. "We basically have two countries that have been fighting for so long and so hard that they don't know what the [expletive deleted] they're doing," Trump told reporters as he left the White House for the Nato summit in The Hague. Trump said Iran fired a missile at Israel after the ceasefire deadline had passed, and that it missed its target. "Now Israel is going out," he said, adding that he was also unhappy with Israel's response. "I didn't like the fact that Israel unloaded right after we made the deal. They didn't have to unload, and I didn't like the fact that the retaliation was very strong," he said. Trump had announced that the ceasefire would begin around midnight ET on 24 June, ending nearly two weeks of hostilities that included US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend of 21-22 June. Earlier today, Israel accused Iran of firing missiles after the ceasefire took effect and vowed to retaliate. Iran's military denied the claim, according to Iranian state media. Trump then took to his Truth Social platform to urge Israel not to respond. "DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS. IF YOU DO IT IS A MAJOR VIOLATION. BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW!" He later posted that Israel would not attack Iran. "All planes will turn around and head home, while doing a friendly ‘Plane Wave' to Iran. Nobody will be hurt, the Ceasefire is in effect!" he said. Trump also commented on the US strikes against Iran's nuclear infrastructure over the weekend. "I think it's been completely demolished. I think the reason we're here is because those pilots, those B-2 pilots, did an unbelievable job," he said. The extent of the damage has not been independently verified. Trump added that Iran would not be able to rebuild its Fordow nuclear facility — the country's main site for enriching uranium to 60pc. "Iran will never rebuild its nuclear… From there? Absolutely not. That place is under rock. That place is demolished," he said. By Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Erex to start Vietnam biomass co-firing tests in August


24/06/25
News
24/06/25

Erex to start Vietnam biomass co-firing tests in August

Tokyo, 24 June (Argus) — Japanese renewable energy developer Erex plans to start coal and biomass co-firing test runs at thermal power plants in Vietnam from August. Co-firing test runs will start at the 110MW Na Duong plant in August and at the 115MW Cao Ngan plant in September, Erex said on 20 June. Both plants are owned and operated by Vietnam National Coal and Mineral Industries (Vinacomin). The Japanese company announced in April that it was planning co-firing test runs at the two plants , but had not previously disclosed when the tests would start. The trial operations are expected to last for several months and burn locally produced wood chips, starting from 5pc co-firing and gradually increasing to 20pc. The two companies will renovate the plants in 2026-27 after the trial operations and start commercial co-firing operations around 2027-28, Erex said. Erex said it also plans to conduct co-firing test runs at Vinacomin's 670MW Cam Pha plant in 2027-28 and start commercial operations around 2029-30. The company aims to carry out co-firing at six Vinacomin plants with a combined capacity of 1,585MW, including Na Duong, Cao Ngan, and Cam Pha. The co-firing projects are part of Vietnam's net zero strategy. Erex is eyeing carbon credits from the plants once commercial co-firing begins. The company aims to sell some of the carbon credits in Japan and is currently negotiating with Vietnamese government on this. Erex is expanding its renewable energy business in Vietnam and southeast Asia. In addition to co-firing projects, the company aims to operate a total of 19 biomass-fired power plants in Vietnam. The first of these, the 20MW Hau Giang plant, started commercial operations in April. Erex also plans to build up to five biomass-fired power plants in Cambodia. The company projects that profits from Vietnam and Cambodia will account for more than half of its overall earnings by around 2030, from nearly negligible levels in 2024. By Takeshi Maeda Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Israel and Iran agree to ceasefire: Trump


23/06/25
News
23/06/25

Israel and Iran agree to ceasefire: Trump

Houston, 23 June (Argus) — Israel and Iran have agreed to a ceasefire to begin around midnight ET, President Donald Trump said in a social media post late on Monday, ending 12 days of attacks that included US strikes on Iran over the weekend. Iran will start the ceasefire first, according to Trump, and Israel will follow suit 12 hours later. The ceasefire will not begin until the two countries have completed ongoing military operations. "During each CEASEFIRE, the other side will remain PEACEFUL and RESPECTFUL," Trump wrote on social media. ""On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, ‘THE 12 DAY WAR.'" The fighting appeared headed for escalation in recent days, with the US bombing nuclear sites in Iran over the weekend, and Iran launching missiles at a US military base in Qatar Monday in retaliation. But Iran gave advanced warning of the missiles in what appears to have been an effort to de-escalate the conflict. WTI crude futures closed down by 7pc on Monday , as markets took the tepid Iranian response as a sign Iran did not plan to escalate the conflict. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Generic Hero Banner

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more