Generic Hero BannerGeneric Hero Banner
Latest market news

Q&A: EU-GCC eye alliance anchored in energy, security

  • Market: Crude oil, Electricity, Hydrogen, Natural gas
  • 31/10/24

Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and the start of the war in Gaza last year hastened the strengthening of relations between the EU and the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) ꟷ something both blocs had long been striving for. Argus sat down with the EU's special representative for the Gulf region and former Italian foreign minister Luigi di Maio at the Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh this week to discuss his hopes for the future of the relationship.

You spoke at the conference about a comprehensive EU-GCC trade agreement. Such a thing has been on the table for a while without really moving forward. Could the first ever EU-GCC summit two weeks ago in Brussels provide the push needed for it to happen?

The final statement of the summit clearly emphasised the importance of finalising the negotiation in a positive way, and reaching the free trade agreement at a regional level as soon as possible.

Then we can start tailor-made negotiations on trade and investments. This can work in complementarity with the free trade agreement, for instance, on investments and energy co-operation bilaterally. This doesn't mean we are going to kill the free trade agreement at the regional level, but there are some sectorial co-operations that we can implement. This is a very good starting point.

I would say the summit was ‘the message' because although our co-operation agreement dates back to the late 1980s, it was the first ever summit. Of course, that also testifies to the gap that we have to fill. This is why the EU approved the new strategy and why there is a special representative to implement this strategy. And why we are working with the Gulf countries to negotiate and implement [it] as soon as possible.

Riyadh is where we opened the first ever European Chamber of Commerce in the GCC. The EU and Saudi Arabia are going to sign an energy co-operation MoU by the end of the year. The text has been discussed, and now we will work for the signature.

What are the elements of this energy agreement with Saudi Arabia?

It is a new framework to co-operate, particularly, on renewables, hydrogen, and technologies linked to renewables. This is very important, and currently in the hands of the EU commissioner for energy, Kadri Simson, and Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, the energy minister of Saudi Arabia.

Speaking of hydrogen, Prince Abdulaziz spoke here about Saudi Arabia being one of the lowest-cost producers of hydrogen. We also know that hydrogen is a major element of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor [IMEC] agreement signed at the G20 summit in New Delhi. Is the IMEC project still on the table? And is this growing hydrogen relationship between the EU and the GCC part of it?

First, the lesson we, the EU, learned is diversification. So, it's very important to implement our diversification policy on any kind of energy source. It is not only linked to oil, gas or hydrogen, or in general, technologies, raw materials and production.

Then there is the issue of how much we can count on the suppliers. The Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and others have always been reliable partners. This is why we see the energy co-operation as a pillar of our partnership. On hydrogen, there is a mutual interest to meet our ambitions. Our ambition, according to the European Commission's REPowerEU proposal, is for the EU to produce 10mn t of hydrogen on its soil by 2030, and import another 10 mn t. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Oman are working with our companies and member states to export hydrogen to Europe. And I think the development of technologies and new projects around that will be at the core of our future co-operation.

If you look at Vision 2030, here in Saudi Arabia, but even in the UAE and in the other countries, many of the goals are in line with our REPowerEU, NextGenerationEU, or the European Green Deal proposals. So there is momentum, and we are taking it. We are trying to fill the gap of the past. And the very important thing, not only about hydrogen, but even about the climate co-operation that is in our final statement [of the EU-GCC summit], is that it's not an "Una tantum" [one-off] event.

We are working to have the ministerial foreign ministers' meeting in Kuwait next year and the next EU-GCC summit in Saudi Arabia in 2026. We have a long road ahead to implement the deliverables of the last summit, but also to improve our co-operation on renewables.

There was a significant breakthrough at Cop 28 with the mention of fossil fuels in the final declaration. Do you see the growing EU-GCC relationship as a leverage to push GCC countries on their climate agendas and goals?

The approach should not be that we push them on their climate agendas. We are working together. And thanks to the multilateral relations, ambitions and policies that we have, we can, even in view of Cop 29, co-ordinate in the same way we did at Cop 28.

This is very important, because thanks to their influential foreign policy, on Africa, on central Asia, even sometimes on Latin America, and our ambitions and partners around the world, we can merge our relations to take another step forward on climate policy. But as you said, Cop 28 was historic, as consensus was the most ambitious result of the UN climate Cops, and I think we have to continue on this path together.

It is not a matter of pushing someone. It's a matter of co-operation. Our level of partnership with GCC has to switch at a strategic level. We want to create a strategic partnership on peace and prosperity. This is our agreed ambition on both sides.

Speaking of peace and prosperity, Iran is involved indirectly in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and its direct confrontation with Israel leaves the GCC sandwiched in the middle. How do you see the EU working with the GCC to attain peace and prosperity, given the increased insecurity in the region?

We share with the GCC the interest of peace, prosperity and stability of the region.

Because if you look at these countries, what are they doing on Ukraine, like returning children and prisoner exchanges… They are very active, and we appreciate their efforts.

So my perception is that the more we work with the GCC on regional stability, the more we will achieve results, because we have a common agenda. They will be very important for the future of the two-state solution, but also for the stability of Lebanon. Even for conveying messages of de-escalation to Iran.

The channels with Iran have to be open… to convey messages about nuclear, ballistic missiles, about weapons to Russia for use against Ukraine, and the ‘Axis of Resistance' policy in the region, about the Red Sea and the freedom of navigation. We have to use all the channels we have and the channels the GCC have are precious because of the normalisation processes in the region, just like the Iran-Saudi Arabia one.


Sharelinkedin-sharetwitter-sharefacebook-shareemail-share

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News
13/06/25

EPA proposes record US biofuel mandates: Update

EPA proposes record US biofuel mandates: Update

Updates with new pricing, reactions throughout. New York, 13 June (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration today proposed requiring record biofuel blending into the US fuel supply over the next two years, including unexpectedly strong quotas for biomass-based diesel. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposal, which still must be finalized, projects oil refiners will need to blend 5.61bn USG of biomass-based diesel to comply with requirements in 2026 and 5.86bn USG in 2027. Those estimates — while uncertain — would be a 67pc increase in 2026 and a 75pc increase in 2027 from this year's 3.35bn USG requirement, above what most industry groups had sought. The proposal alone is likely to boost biofuel production, which has been down to start the year as biorefineries have struggled to grapple with uncertainty about future blend mandates, the halting rollout of a new clean fuel tax credit, and higher import tariffs. The National Oilseed Processors Association said hiking the biomass-based diesel mandate to the proposed levels would bring "idled capacity back online" and spur "additional investments" in the biofuel supply chain. The EPA proposal also would halve Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits generated from foreign biofuels and biofuels produced from foreign feedstocks, a major change that could increase US crop demand and hurt renewable diesel plants that source many of their inputs from abroad. US farm groups have lamented refiners' rising use of Chinese used cooking oil and Brazilian tallow to make renewable diesel, and EPA's proposal if finalized would sharply reduce the incentive to do so. Biofuel imports from producers with major refineries abroad, notably including Neste, would also be far less attractive. The proposal asks for comment, however, on a less restrictive policy that would only treat fuels and feedstocks from "a subset of countries" differently. And EPA still expects a substantial role for imported product regardless, estimating in a regulatory impact analysis that domestic fuels from domestic feedstocks will make up about 62pc of biomass-based diesel supply next year. The Renewable Fuel Standard program requires US oil refiners and importers to blend biofuels into the conventional fuel supply or buy credits from those who do. One USG of corn ethanol generates one RIN, but more energy-dense fuels like renewable diesel can earn more. In total, the rule would require 24.02bn RINs to be retired next year and 24.46bn RINs in 2027. That includes a specific 7.12bn RIN mandate for biomass-based diesel in 2026 and 7.5bn in 2027, and an implied mandate for corn ethanol flat from prior years at 15bn RINs. EPA currently sets biomass-based diesel mandates in physical gallons but is proposing a change to align with how targets for other program categories work. US soybean oil futures surged following the release of the EPA proposal, closing at their highest price in more than four weeks, and RIN credits rallied similarly on bullish expectations for higher biofuel demand and domestic feedstock prices. D4 biomass-diesel credits traded as high as 117.75¢/RIN, up from a 102.5¢/RIN settle on Thursday, while D6 conventional credits traded as high as 110¢/RIN. Bids for both retreated later in the session while prices still closed the day higher. Proposed targets are less aspirational for the cellulosic biofuel category, where biogas generates most credits. EPA proposes lowering the 2025 mandate to 1.19bn RINs, down from from 1.38bn RINs previously required, with 2026 and 2027 targets proposed at 1.30bn RINs and 1.36bn RINs, respectively. In a separate final rule today, EPA cut the 2024 cellulosic mandate to 1.01bn RINs from 1.09bn previously required, a smaller cut than initially proposed, and made available special "waiver" credits refiners can purchase at a fixed price to comply. Small refinery exemptions The proposal includes little clarity on EPA's future policy around program exemptions, which small refiners can request if they claim blend mandates will cause them disproportionate economic hardship. EPA predicted Friday that exemptions for the 2026 and 2027 compliance years could total anywhere from zero to 18bn USG of gasoline and diesel and provided no clues as to how it will weigh whether individual refiners, if any, deserve program waivers. The rule does suggest EPA plans to continue a policy from past administrations of estimating future exempted volumes when calculating the percentage of biofuels individual refiners must blend in the future, which would effectively require those with obligations to shoulder more of the burden to meet high-level 2026 and 2027 targets. Notably though, the proposal says little about how EPA is weighing a backlog of more than a hundred requests for exemptions stretching from 2016 to 2025. An industry official briefed on Friday ahead of the rule's release said Trump administration officials were "coy" about their plans for the backlog. Many of these refiners had already submitted RINs to comply with old mandates and could push for some type of compensation if granted retroactive waivers, making this part of the program especially hard to implement. And EPA would invite even more legal scrutiny if it agreed to biofuel groups' lobbying to "reallocate" newly exempted volumes from many years prior into future standards. EPA said it plans to "communicate our policy regarding [exemption] petitions going forward before finalization of this rule". Industry groups expect the agency will try to conclude the rule-making before November. The proposed mandates for 2026-2027 will have to go through the typical public comment process and could be changed as regulators weigh new data on biofuel production and food and fuel prices. Once the program updates are finalized, lawsuits are inevitable. A federal court is still weighing the legality of past mandates, and the Supreme Court is set to rule this month on the proper court venue for litigating small refinery exemption disputes. Environmentalists are likely to probe the agency's ultimate assessment of costs and benefits, including the climate costs of encouraging crop-based fuels. Oil companies could also have a range of complaints, from the record-high mandates to the creative limits on foreign feedstocks. American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers senior vice president Geoff Moody noted that EPA was months behind a statutory deadline for setting 2026 mandates and said it would "strongly oppose any reallocation of small refinery exemptions" if finalized. By Cole Martin and Matthew Cope Proposed 2026-2027 renewable volume obligations bn RINs Fuel type 2026 2027 Cellulosic biofuel 1.30 1.36 Biomass-based diesel 7.12 7.50 Advanced biofuel 9.02 9.46 Total renewable fuel 24.02 24.46 Implied ethanol mandate 15 15 — EPA Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Find out more
News

Israel, Iran exchange strikes: Update


13/06/25
News
13/06/25

Israel, Iran exchange strikes: Update

Updates with details throughout Washington, 13 June (Argus) — Israel continued to attack nuclear facilities in Iran and Tehran retaliated with missile strikes against Tel Aviv and elsewhere in Israel on a day that saw sharp escalation across the world's largest oil producing region. Israel's Air Force said today it completed another round of attacks against Iran while prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his country will continue attacking Iran "as long as necessary". The latest Israeli attack, following broader strikes in the early hours Friday, targeted a nuclear facility near Isfahan in Iran's northwest, according to Israel's Air Force post on social media platform X at 8:40pm local time (5:40pm GMT). A barrage of Iranian ballistic missiles landed in Tel Aviv in late evening hours Friday local time, as Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) said it will deliver a "crushing and precise response" to Israeli strikes that decapitated Iran's military leadership, knocked out the country's air defense and caused some damage to the country's nuclear programme facilities. The exchange of air and missile strikes has so far spared oil infrastructure in Iran and elsewhere in the region. Israel has halted production at two of its major natural gas fields and cut pipeline exports to Egypt following the attack on Iran. Crude market participants said they were concerned that Israeli attacks on Iran could extend beyond the existing military targets and nuclear infrastructure, and target the country's oil fields and facilities. The July Nymex WTI contract was trading near $73/bl at 3pm ET, about 8pc above yesterday's settlement price. Israel's military said earlier in the day that it intercepted a barrage of drones launched from Iran and Yemen. The ballistic missiles Iran used later in the evening are faster moving and harder to intercept, said former US assistant secretary of state Barbara Leaf. Iran last used them to attack Israel in October 2024. "We must give a strong response," Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said before the Iranian missile strikes on Israel. "They shouldn't imagine that they've attacked us and that everything is over now." What next? The immediate aftermath of the attack on Iran, launched in the early hours Friday local time, points to a serious toll in leadership ranks, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps commander-in-chief Hossein Salami and Iran's army chief, Mohammad Bagheri. US president Donald Trump convened a national security council meeting at 11am ET today, with no readout yet on any potential measures it could take in response to a hike in oil prices. US forces across the Middle East are on alert and the US administration pledged to help defend Israel from further attacks. The conflict has the potential to spread to neighboring countries and Trump's sidelining or forced retirement of professional diplomats at the State Department and the White House national security council leaves his administration with fewer resources to dial down tensions or to prevent Israel from taking drastic steps, Leaf said during a discussion hosted by think tank the Middle East Institute. "Iraq is in the bull's eye," said Leaf, who left the State Department in January. "The Gulf states are obviously very vulnerable. Egypt and Israel have been acutely threatened by the conflict in Gaza, and this kind of adds a new pile on, but I worry about Iraq." The apparent initial success of Israel's military operation could prompt Netanyahu to press his advantage against Iran and "one of my concerns would be that... the drive to go forward toward regime change will be just too tempting," Leaf said. "This is a country of 83 million people. It's not a non-state actor like Hezbollah" in Lebanon, she said. "As immense an achievement it was for the Israel Defense Forces to take Hezbollah apart, it is not the same thing as really decapitating a country and then seeing how it all works out." By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Japan’s Jera signs LNG supply agreements with the US


13/06/25
News
13/06/25

Japan’s Jera signs LNG supply agreements with the US

Singapore, 13 June (Argus) — Japanese power producer Jera said this week that it has signed multiple long-term LNG supply agreements with US partners over the past two months, to procure up to 5.5mn t/yr over 20 years. This includes 2mn t/yr from NextDecade and 1mn t/yr from Commonwealth LNG. It also signed non-binding interim agreements with Sempra Infrastructure for 1.5mn t/yr and with developer Cheniere for 1mn t/yr. The deals offer competitive pricing and flexible contract terms. All supply will be delivered on a fob basis priced against the US' Henry Hub, allowing Jera to optimise shipping routes and respond flexibly to domestic demand and market conditions, the company said. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Law's sunset not an end for Argentina's renewables


13/06/25
News
13/06/25

Law's sunset not an end for Argentina's renewables

Buenos Aires, 13 June (Argus) — A law meant to increase renewable energy in Argentina will expire at the end of 2025 without meeting its target and with little hope of renewal, but other incentives may still bolster the sector. Law 27191, passed in 2015 to extend earlier legislation, called for renewable sources to reach at least 20pc of Argentina's energy mix by the end of its 2025 expiry. The legislation covers biogas, biomass, solar, wind and hydroelectric plants under 50MW of capacity. Renewables have expanded more than other technologies, increasing to 6,672MW of installed capacity at the end of last year from 381MW in 2003, but still far from the goal. Renewable sources accounted for 15pc of installed capacity at the end of 2024 and covered 16pc of demand, according to the state-owned energy wholesale company, Cammesa. New capacity is being added and renewables should come close to meeting the demand target — renewables covered 21pc of demand in April, according to Cammesa, and 572MW in new solar and wind capacity came online in June alone. But it is unclear what comes next as the government deregulates the economy and pulls back from market intervention. Marcelo Alvarez, head of the solar power committee for Cader, Argentina's renewable energy association, said that there is no indication six months before the law's expiration that it will be extended. "I do not think they are going to extend Law 27191," he said. "The government is not interested in anything that conditions or interferes with the free-market dynamic and [Law] 27191, with its model of quotas with fiscal incentives, goes against its ideological thinking." But the government's change in policy approach could help address some of the main infrastructure and economic problems that hampered the installation of more renewable sources. Argentina has some of the world's best solar and wind potential, according to Alvarez, but it does not have the transmission lines to get power from new plants into the grid. "The system is basically saturated and we are really going to hit a wall if we do not start to build new lines now," said Alvarez. President Javier Milei's government announced in late May a plan for new transmission lines, but the private sector would need to do the work. The plan includes 15 500kV lines that would cover 5,610km and increase the existing grid's scope by 38pc at a cost of $6.6bn. The government is also moving forward with a tender started by the previous administration for a battery energy storage system (BESS) for 500MW, one of the largest in Latin America. The winning bids should be announced in August, according to the most recent timeline. The critical point for any project is financing, which Alvarez said remains difficult and expensive in Argentina despite recent changes. He said that interest rates for a 100MW project in Argentina are around 8pc, while in neighboring Chile they can be as low as 3pc. The Milei government has started to tackle major issues, bringing inflation down to 47.4pc annualized through April from nearly 300pc in 2024, eliminating regulations on financing and exports and reducing currency controls. It also has in place an investment and legal stability mechanism, known as Rigi, to attract large-scale investment for projects over $200mn. It has awarded one power project so far, the 305MW El Quemado solar park planned by state-owned YPF. "The cost and length of financing are major obstacles," Alvarez said. "It is going to take time to lower the cost of capital." By Lucien Chauvin Argentina's renewable power capacity MW Technology End 2024 Apr 25 Wind 4,319 4,342 Solar 1,673 1,909 Small hydro 524 524 Biogas/biomass 155 192 — Cammesa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Opec+ output rises by 360,000 b/d in May


13/06/25
News
13/06/25

Opec+ output rises by 360,000 b/d in May

London, 13 June (Argus) — Crude production by Opec+ members with output targets rose by 360,000 b/d last month, driven by Saudi Arabia and South Sudan, Argus estimates. Output rose to 34.33mn b/d in May, the highest in 15 months and 760,000 b/d above six months ago. But it was still 70,000 b/d below the group's collective target for the month. Further increases are on the way. Eight Opec+ members — Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Russia, the UAE, Algeria, Oman and Kazakhstan — began unwinding 2.2mn b/d of "voluntary" additional cuts in April with an initial increase of 137,000 b/d. They followed this by tripling the scheduled monthly increases to 411,000 b/d for May, June and July . If they continue at this rate, the group could fully unwind its cuts by October, 11 months earlier than planned. The decisions to return more oil to an increasingly uncertain market took observers by surprise, particularly given subdued oil prices and the bleak economic outlook driven by US president Donald Trump's tariff policies. The group says the output rises are based on "healthy market fundamentals" and "low oil inventories". But the eight members have also stressed the actual output increases will be partially offset by members that have pledged to compensate for past overproduction. This is now being borne out. The eight members boosted their combined output by 190,000 b/d in May — less than the 411,000 b/d increase to their collective target for the month. Russia and Iraq are key reasons for the lower output, with both having pledged to compensate for significant past overproduction. Iraq kept its output flat at 3.94mn b/d — 110,000 b/d below its May target. While this was still 30,000 b/d above the country's target under the latest publicly available compensation plan , it marks a big improvement on previous months. Russia's output also remained unchanged at 8.98mn b/d, 100,000 b/d below its target and 20,000 b/d below its compensation-related target. The UAE also made considerable compensation effort. The country's output fell by 10,000 b/d to 2.93mn b/d — 70,000 b/d below its compensation-related target. And while Saudi Arabia increased its output by a hefty 140,000 b/d, this was 50,000 b/d below its target for the month. The country is expected to be the main driver of the alliance's output increases in the coming months, particularly given that it does not have any compensation-related cuts to make. The outlier Kazakhstan continues to stick out like a sore thumb, with its output still at near-record levels. The country's production rose by 10,000 b/d to 1.83mn b/d in May — 340,000 b/d above its target for the month and a whopping 460,000 b/d above its compensation-related target. Kazakhstan is not expected to make any meaningful production cuts in the coming months. A large part of the alliance's wider output increase was driven by South Sudan, which resumed exports of Dar Blend in late April. Production of the grade was shut in for more than a year owing to problems affecting the pipeline that carries the crude to war-torn Sudan's Bashayer terminal on the Red Sea. The resumption of flows boosted output to 150,000 b/d in May, the highest since March 2024. Another notable boost came from Iran which, like Venezuela and Libya, is exempt from output targets. Iran's production rose by 30,000 b/d to 3.42mn b/d — the highest since August 2018, when the country's output began to fall owing to the reimposition of sanctions by Trump during his first term. Venezuela's output fell by 30,000 b/d to 930,000 b/d. Further output falls are around the corner , with the US tightening sanctions on the South American country. By Aydin Calik Opec+ crude production mn b/d May Apr* May target† ± target Opec 9 21.51 21.26 21.64 -0.13 Non-Opec 9 12.82 12.71 12.76 +0.06 Total Opec+ 18 34.33 33.97 34.40 -0.07 *revised †includes additional cuts but excludes compensation cuts Opec wellhead production mn b/d May Apr* May target† ± target Saudi Arabia 9.15 9.01 9.20 -0.05 Iraq 3.94 3.94 4.05 -0.11 Kuwait 2.43 2.40 2.44 -0.01 UAE 2.94 2.95 3.02 -0.08 Algeria 0.92 0.91 0.92 0.00 Nigeria 1.58 1.55 1.50 +0.08 Congo (Brazzaville) 0.27 0.25 0.28 -0.01 Gabon 0.22 0.20 0.17 +0.05 Equatorial Guinea 0.06 0.05 0.07 -0.01 Opec 9 21.51 21.26 21.64 -0.13 Iran 3.42 3.39 na na Libya 1.38 1.34 na na Venezuela 0.93 0.96 na na Total Opec 12^ 27.24 26.95 na na *revised †includes additional cuts but excludes compensation cuts ^Iran, Libya and Venezuela are exempt from production targets Non-Opec crude production mn b/d May Apr* May target† ± target Russia 8.98 8.98 9.08 -0.10 Oman 0.76 0.76 0.77 -0.01 Azerbaijan 0.45 0.45 0.55 -0.10 Kazakhstan 1.83 1.82 1.49 +0.34 Malaysia 0.36 0.35 0.40 -0.04 Bahrain 0.18 0.18 0.20 -0.02 Brunei 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.01 Sudan 0.02 0.02 0.06 -0.04 South Sudan 0.15 0.06 0.12 +0.03 Total non-Opec 12.82 12.71 12.76 0.06 *revised †includes additional cuts but excludes compensation cuts Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Generic Hero Banner

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more