Opec trims oil demand growth forecasts again

Market: Crude oil
12/11/24

Opec has cut its global oil demand growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 for a fourth month in a row, citing China as the main reason.

In its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) today the producer group revised down its 2024 demand growth projection by 110,000 b/d to 1.82mn b/d. It cut its demand growth forecast for China to 450,000 b/d in 2024, from 580,000 b/d in last month's MOMR.

Opec's global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 is now 430,000 b/d lower than the 2.25mn b/d it had long projected until it made its first downward revision for 2024 in August.

But its demand forecasts are still much higher than many others. The IEA's latest oil demand projection for 2024 is 860,000 b/d, while the EIA's 920,000 b/d.

For 2025, Opec downgraded its demand growth forecast by 100,000 b/d to 1.54mn b/d, again mainly due to China. This is 310,000 b/d lower than its long-held 1.85mn b/d growth projection for next year, which it also first downgraded in August.

On the supply side, the group kept its non-Opec+ liquids growth estimate for 2024 and 2025 unchanged at 1.23mn b/d and 1.11mn b/d, respectively.

Opec+ crude production — including Mexico — increased by 215,000 b/d to 40.34mn b/d in October, according to an average of secondary sources that includes Argus. This is about 2.36mn b/d below Opec's projected call on Opec+ crude for this year, which is 42.7mn b/d.

By Aydin Calik

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