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Republicans weigh two-step plan on energy, taxes

  • Market: Coal, Crude oil, Emissions, Natural gas, Oil products
  • 06/12/24

Republicans in the US Congress are considering trying to pass president-elect Donald Trump's legislative agenda by voting first on a filibuster-proof budget package that revises energy policy, then taking up a separate tax cut bill later in 2025.

The two-part strategy, floated by incoming US Senate majority leader John Thune (R-South Dakota), could deliver Trump an early win by putting immigration, border security and energy policy changes into a single budget bill that could pass early next year without Democratic support. Republicans would then have more time to debate a separate — and likely more complex — budget package that would focus on extending a tax package expected to cost more than $4 trillion over 10 years.

The legislative strategy is a "possibility" floated among Senate Republicans for achieving Trump's legislative goals on "energy dominance," the border, national security and extending tax cuts, Thune said in an interview with Fox News this week. Thune said he was still having conversations with House Republicans and Trump's team on what strategy to pursue.

Republicans plan to use a process called budget reconciliation to advance most of Trump's legislative goals, which would avoid a Democratic filibuster but restrict the scope of policy changes to those that directly affect the budget. But some Republicans worry the potential two-part strategy could fracture the caucus and cause some key policies getting dropped, spurring a debate among Republicans over how to move forward.

"We have a menu of options in front of us," US House speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) said this week in an interview with Fox News. "Leader Thune and I were talking as recently as within the last hour about the priority of how we do it and in what sequence."

Republicans have yet to decide what changes they will make to the Inflation Reduction Act, which includes hundreds of billions of dollars of tax credits for wind, solar, electric vehicles, battery manufacturing, carbon capture and clean hydrogen. A group of 18 House Republicans in August said they opposed a "full repeal" of the 2022 law. Republicans next year will start with only a 220-215 majority in the House, which will then drop to 217-215 once two Republicans join the Trump administration and representative Matt Gaetz (R-Florida) resigns.


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18/06/25

Trump talk of Iran attacks spreads market risks

Trump talk of Iran attacks spreads market risks

Washington, 18 June (Argus) — The prospect of wider escalation in the Middle East if the US joins Israel's attacks on Iran is affecting marine insurance, freight and middle distillate prices, even though the flow of energy commodities out of the Mideast Gulf so far remains unfettered. US president Donald Trump's repeated hints at a potential US role in Israel's bombing campaign against Iran prompted Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to warn of "irreparable damage" to the US if it joins the attacks. Trump in remarks to reporters at the White House today said he presented an "ultimate ultimatum" to Tehran and said of a potential US air raid on Iran, "I may do it. I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I'm going to do." Khamenei in a televised address today denounced Trump's "absurd, unacceptable rhetoric to openly demand that the Iranian people surrender to him." Iran will oppose any "imposed peace", Khamenei said. "The harm the US will suffer will definitely be irreparable if they enter this conflict militarily," Khamenei said. The escalating conflict in the Middle East is causing a surge in Europe-bound freight rates for medium range tankers loading in the US Gulf coast. Mideast Gulf middle distillate premiums are at multi-month highs. Additional War Risk Premiums (AWRP) in the Mideast Gulf could rise sharply in the coming days as the number of insurance underwriters willing to commit at current levels appears to be shrinking. Some LNG carriers that have held off from transiting the strait of Hormuz in recent days have since sailed through or have approached the strait, while no carriers loaded in the Mideast Gulf have slowed from sailing via the strait. Few barriers to US participation Domestically and internationally, there is no significant pushback against a potential US involvement. The isolationist wing of Republican politicians and media figures loyal to Trump are urging him to avoid involvement in an Israel-Iran war. A group of Democratic senators on Tuesday circulated legislation to require Trump to ask for congressional authorization to use force against Iran, but senate majority leader John Thune (R-South Dakota) would not commit to allowing a vote on the resolution. "Dismantling Iran's nuclear program is what this is all about," Thune said in a televised interview Tuesday. "It can happen diplomatically, voluntarily, or can happen via force." There is also no unanimity among the other G7 leaders on the future course of conflict. The group in a statement on 16 June that Trump endorsed called Iran "the principal source of regional instability and terror." The Pentagon is ready to execute on any order by Trump, US defense secretary Pete Hegseth told a Senate panel today. Hegseth declined to say if Trump made any decision on an attack. Mixed messages on talks Trump claimed today that Iran's government has reached out to him for a diplomatic solution and has expressed willingness to send a high ranking official to the White House. The offer is "courageous", Trump said, but added that "I said it's very late to be talking." Iran's mission to the UN subsequently denied a request for a meeting at the White House. Trump said today that Russian president Vladimir Putin reached out with an offer to mediate in the Israel-Iran conflict. The conversation took place on 14 June, according to the Kremlin. "I said, do me a favor, mediate your own," Trump said, referring to Russia's war in Ukraine. "Let's mediate Russia first. Okay?" By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Israel-Iran conflict raises European middle distillates


18/06/25
News
18/06/25

Israel-Iran conflict raises European middle distillates

London, 18 June (Argus) — The continuing and escalating conflict between Israel and Iran is rallying European jet fuel and diesel values, due to fears of supply tightness. The rise in middle distillate values has outstripped those in crude in the past week, suggesting European jet fuel and diesel markets are pricing in the risk of substantial supply constraint arising from Israeli-Iranian tensions. This has not happened yet, with the conflict in a sixth day. Front-month Ice gasoil futures — the underlying value in Argus' European jet fuel and diesel assessments — settled at $731/t on Tuesday, 17 June, up by $45.75/t on the day. This was the highest settlement since 20 February, and the largest daily increase since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022. Argus priced cif northwest European jet fuel and fob ARA diesel at $789.75/t and $744.50/t on Tuesday, the highest assessments since January. Refining margins for cif northwest European jet fuel and diesel to North Sea Dated crude were $5.17/bl and $4.07/bl higher on the week, at $22.46/bl and $22.45/bl respectively, at Tuesday's close. This is the widest jet fuel crack in a year and the widest diesel crack since February. Although supply has not yet been affected, freight sources told Argus they expect Additional War Risk Premiums (AWRPs) in the Mideast Gulf to rise sharply in the coming days, which could weigh heavily on arbitrage economics to Europe and dissuade shippers from sending product to the region. Loadings of 10ppm diesel and jet totaled 430,000 b/d and 460,000 b/d respectively from ports in the Mideast Gulf in May, according to Kpler, or 11pc and 28pc of global daily loadings. With much of this heading to European destinations, the prospect for disruption is clear. Prompt supply concerns are also reflected through the difference between front- and second-month Ice gasoil futures contracts. The backwardation structure steepened from $9.75/t on Monday to $15/t at Tuesday close. Backwardation between the second- and third-month contracts stretched to $10/t on Tuesday, the widest since February. This suggests concern that supply issues could persist for several months. Europe was already facing unworkable diesel arbitrages for cargoes loading from east of Suez ports for northwest European destinations. Seasonal European jet fuel demand usually relies on supply from the Middle East, the largest jet fuel exporting region to Europe. By Amaar Khan and George Maher-Bonnett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Banks increased fossil fuel financing in 2024: Report


18/06/25
News
18/06/25

Banks increased fossil fuel financing in 2024: Report

London, 18 June (Argus) — Banks "significantly increased" their fossil fuel financing in 2024, reversing a trend of steadily declining fossil fuel financing since 2021, a report from a group of non-profit organisations found this week. The 65 biggest banks globally committed $869bn in 2024 to "companies conducting business in fossil fuels", the report — Banking on Climate Chaos — found. Those banks committed $429bn last year to companies expanding fossil fuel production and infrastructure. The report assesses lending and underwriting in 2024 from the world's top 65 banks to more than 2,700 fossil fuel companies. Figures are not directly comparable year-on-year, as the previous report, which assessed 2023, covered financing from 60 banks. The 60 biggest banks globally committed $705bn in 2023 to companies with fossil fuel business, last year's report found. Those banks committed $347bn in 2023 to companies with fossil fuel expansion plans. Of the five banks providing the most fossil fuel finance in 2024, four were US banks — JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo. The 65 banks assessed in this year's report have committed $7.9 trillion in fossil fuel financing since 2016, when the Paris climate agreement took effect, the report found. Finance is at the core of climate negotiations like UN Cop summits. Developed countries are typically called upon at such events to provide more public climate finance to developing nations, but the focus is also shifting to private finance, as overseas development finance looks set to drop . But fossil fuel financing banks are increasingly facing the risk of targeted and more complex climate-related litigation, according to a recent report by the London School of Economics' centre for economic transition expertise (Cetex). Climate litigation is not currently adequately accounted for in financial risk assessment, with case filing and decisions negatively impacting carbon financiers, it said. "While early climate cases primarily targeted governments and big-emitting ‘carbon majors', cases against other firms have proliferated quickly," Cetex said. The report also showed that, based on a review of disclosures from 20 banks supervised by the European Central Bank, many banks across Europe recognise litigation risks as material in the context of climate and environmental factors but tend to not be specific about the risks incurred. By Georgia Gratton and Caroline Varin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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AWRP tanker insurance to jump in Mideast Gulf


18/06/25
News
18/06/25

AWRP tanker insurance to jump in Mideast Gulf

London, 18 June (Argus) — Additional War Risk Premiums (AWRP) in the Mideast Gulf could be set to rise sharply in the coming days in the wake of the Iran-Israel conflict, potentially pushing up freight rates, sources indicated to Argus , as the number of underwriters willing to commit at current levels appears to be shrinking. Offers from underwriters in line with last-done levels are becoming increasingly scarce, sources told Argus , with a number of underwriters now offering at significantly higher premiums. The situation is extremely fluid and even the higher offer levels are expected to climb in the coming days, sources said. One source suggested that tomorrow would be a trigger point to revise AWRP rates upwards for all oil and gas cargoes seeking Mideast Gulf cover and the new level would require "a massive uplift". AWRP cover protects a vessel against any physical loss or damage incurred from war related activities such as missile, drone or mine attacks, as well as capture, seizure or detainment. Although vessels are still able to secure AWRP in line with the standard 0.125pc for the Mideast Gulf before the conflict, participants have indicated that some offers are now at or above 0.2-0.4pc of the insured value of the vessel — hull and machinery value. Offers vary widely depending on the specifics of the vessel or providing insurer but several sources have indicated that some offers are at least 50pc higher than early last week. One source stressed that protection and indemnity (P&I) clubs have not yet made a definitive statement on insurance but there is increased alertness. P&I clubs provide marine protection and indemnity insurance for about 90pc of the world's oceangoing tonnage and are key determiners of the overall policies around marine insurance. AWRP in the Black Sea for a Russian crude cargo on a Suezmax tanker peaked at 1.5pc of the insured value of the ship according to Argus assessments, (around $800,000) in 2022 and 2023 as a result of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Argus estimated that the insured value of a very large crude carrier (VLCC) at around $90mn, and a 0.4pc AWRP would equate to around $360,000. A shipowner could receive up to 50pc of this back as part of a no claims bonus but it remains a substantial extra cost faced by crude exporters from the Mideast Gulf. The Mideast Gulf to Asia-Pacific VLCC rate already jumped to the equivalent of $2.14/bl for Murban crude ($16.35/t or WS70) on 17 June from $1.34/bl ($10.28/t or WS44) on 12 June before the first missile strike on Iran. VLCC tankers carrying crude from the Mideast Gulf is the single largest crude trade in the world and since the start of the current conflict between Israel and Iran the cost of freight has bounced almost to a 2025-high from close to a 2025-low. A higher AWRP would most likely be passed on to charterers, leading to further gains in the spot freight market. There is also the likelihood that some insurers could cease offering cover citing inherent risks. But, higher AWRPs are also an opportunity for insurers to generate higher revenues, albeit with significant risks. By John Ollett, George-Maher Bonnett, and Rithika Krishna Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Adding credits, CO2 removals to EU ETS ‘fatal’: Study


18/06/25
News
18/06/25

Adding credits, CO2 removals to EU ETS ‘fatal’: Study

London, 18 June (Argus) — Allowing the use of international carbon credits or carbon removals for compliance under the EU emissions trading system (ETS) risks undermining the environmental integrity of the scheme and hindering the bloc's achievement of its climate targets, warned a study by research body the Oeko-Institut published today. Under the three scenarios examined in the study, which was commissioned by non-governmental organisation Carbon Market Watch, the EU ETS's supply-demand balance does not need to be artificially adjusted before 2035. But beyond this date the total number of allowances in circulation could fall below zero, meaning sectors under the scheme would either need to be fully decarbonised by this date or shut down unless flexibility is introduced to the system. Any reforms to increase ETS supply should focus on the system's market stability reserve, the study found, a mechanism which absorbs a percentage of excess supply from circulation each year but can also release permits if supply falls too low. Changes to the scheme's linear reduction factor — the amount by which its supply cap falls annually — would achieve the same thing but risk weakening the system's ambition, and is more likely to be politically challenging, the study said. Some EU member states have expressed interest in allowing the use of international carbon credits issued under Article 6 of the Paris climate agreement for ETS compliance for this purpose, and the European Commission said last week it is taking the option into consideration , although any such use would entail only "very high integrity" credits representing a "very small proportion" of the bloc's climate action. But introducing Article 6 credits to the ETS "poses significant risks to the functioning and environmental integrity of the system", the study found, pointing to the past use of Clean Development Mechanism credits to offset some ETS obligations to which it attributed the "collapse" of the carbon price. Including carbon removals in the scheme would pose a similar risk, the study found, concluding it is "crucial" they remain in a separate framework. The European Commission is expected to publish a report next year examining their potential inclusion. The commission will also assess in 2031 the feasibility of linking the existing ETS to the EU ETS 2 for road transport and buildings, scheduled for launch in 2027, which could increase the liquidity of the two schemes. But such a link "cannot ease tension in the [ETS] market with certainty, and administrative barriers to the merger are high", the study warned. By Victoria Hatherick Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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