US sulphur consumers face higher prices as a result of President Donald Trump imposing tariffs on commodity imports from Canada and Mexico, which — along with the prospect of counter-measures — could disrupt North American sulphur trade in multiple ways.
Trump issued an executive order on 1 February to impose 25pc tariffs on imports from Canada, reduced to 10pc for energy imports, and 25pc on all Mexico-sourced commodities, with the measures to come into effect on 4 February. The tariffs on energy imports from Canada and Mexico could raise sulphur prices for US consumers in two ways — directly, by increasing the price of Canadian sulphur imported to the US, and indirectly, by increasing the price of sour crude imports for US refineries, which is likely to lead to reduced flows resulting in lower domestic sulphur production and higher prices.
Canadian sulphur is imported to the US for fertilizer production and industrial use, and tariffs would lead to a rise in delivered pricing of Canadian sulphur as a raw material for US fertilizer producers, with the likely knock-on impact of higher finished fertilizer prices.
The US imported 850,000t of Canadian sulphur in January-November, with the majority being molten sulphur shipped by rail to the east coast, Midwest or Rocky Mountains regions. Canadian sulphur accounted for more 93pc of US sulphur imports during this period, up from 89pc from the same period in 2023. This high level of dependency is likely to mean that importers will have to accept higher prices in the near term while searching for alternative sources.
Trade flow impact
For their part, Canadian sulphur suppliers have some limited flexibility to increase their solid sulphur exports through Vancouver port to markets such as China, and limit liquid sulphur rail shipments to the US if tariffs make such shipments uneconomical. But a significant switch in the near term is unrealistic.
Solid sulphur exports loaded at Vancouver port rose by 245,000t in 2024, bringing overall exports up by 7pc to 3.35mn t. The top destination for Canadian prilled sulphur from Vancouver last year was China, at 1.54mn t.
Exports of solid sulphur through Vancouver have risen as a result of increased remelting and prilling of blocked sulphur this year from Alberta's roughly 12mn t of sulphur blocks built over time. This is expected to accelerate in 2025 as the new prilling capacity becomes more stable following earlier technical problems. But a lack of prilling capacity, the cost of additional processing, as well as limits on rail and port warehousing and loading capacity, will cap the potential to increase solid exports in the short term.
Tightening availability and increasingly challenging affordability of Canadian sulphur could in turn push large US consumer Mosaic to import more solid sulphur from the Middle East for remelting in Tampa for fertilizer production. Smaller consumers, particularly in the northeast US, would likely be faced with the tariff impact.
But the US may have more of its own sulphur available if Mexico responds to the US measures with counter-tariffs that disrupt the flow of US sulphur south. The US exported 376,000t of sulphur to Mexico in the first 11 months of 2024. Sulphur produced in the Gulf coast could be shipped by rail to the regions where Canadian sulphur is typically consumed, assuming infrastructure and railcar availability. But the increased freight cost could offset any potential savings relative to the 25pc tariff.
In addition to rising sulphur costs, US fertilizer producers also face increased costs for imports of Canadian ammonia. These raw material price increases would be likely to be passed on to farmers, and with Canada also a large supplier of potash to the US fertilizer market, US farmers could bear the brunt of inflation driven by tariffs.
Crude spillover
Tariffs on crude trade between the US, Canada and Mexico will also impact the sulphur market.
Canada and Mexico both export sour crude to the US, but the tariffs are likely to result in supplies from those countries being redirected to other markets. This could tighten the supply of sour crude to US refineries, reducing domestic sulphur production and pushing up prices.
Mexico's state-owned oil company Pemex has more flexibility to divert its seaborne flows on economic grounds than Canadian heavy crude producers, whose output is primarily transported by pipeline to US refiners.
